Blockcircle MRS - Macroeconomic Risk Scorecard

OVERVIEW

This BLOCKCIRCLE MACROECONOMIC RISK SCORECARD (MRS) is a real-time economic analysis dashboard that tracks over 30 key metrics and proprietary indicators across GDP, employment, income, consumption, industrial production, yield curves, and credit markets. It consolidates data that would otherwise require monitoring dozens of separate sources into a single, actionable interface.

The core purpose is straightforward: know when conditions support risk-taking and when caution is warranted. Whether you lean aggressive or conservative, this tool gives you the data foundation to adjust your positioning across different timeframes. It delivers both daily short-term insights and a long-term perspective in one view.

WHAT MAKES IT ORIGINAL AND DIFFERENT

This indicator represents years of research into recession forecasting and macroeconomic analysis, distilled into a unified system that goes far beyond what standard economic dashboards provide.

• Seven distinct recession risk methodologies run simultaneously: M1 Proprietary Composite, M2 GDP 2-Quarter Rule, M3 Yield Curve Inversion, M4 Sahm Rule, M5 Credit Stress Index, M6 Leading Indicators, and M7 Combined Method
  
• The M1 model is a proprietary scoring system developed through extensive backtesting against historical recession data, weighting GDP, GDI, employment, income, consumption, industrial production, and delinquency data through a calibrated formula
  
• Historical percentage changes span eight distinct lookback periods (1P through 50P), allowing you to see momentum shifts that single-period comparisons miss entirely
  
• Quantitative ratios, including Employment/Population, GDP/GDI divergence, Income/Consumption, Monetary Velocity, Industrial Momentum, and Real Interest Rate, provide context that raw numbers alone cannot deliver
  
• Credit stress monitoring tracks delinquency acceleration across seven loan categories, catching deterioration before it shows up in headline figures
  
• The combined risk score synthesizes all methodologies into a single weighted output with color-coded severity levels
  

CORE FEATURES

• Unified dashboard structure with consistent columns across all sections: VALUE, 1P%, 2P%, 3P%, 5P%, 10P%, 20P%, 30P%, 50P%, TF, STATUS, and SIG
  
• Standardized STATUS classifications provide immediate interpretation without requiring deep economic knowledge
  
• TF column displays data frequency for each metric (3M for quarterly, M for monthly, W for weekly, D for daily)
  
• Compact view toggles let you hide the TF column or extended period columns when you need a cleaner display
  
• NBER recession shading overlays historical recession periods directly on the chart with optional start/end labels
  
• Five fully customizable moving averages with selectable sources from any risk model or economic metric
  
• Configurable alert system with multi-condition triggers for risk threshold breaches across any methodology
  

Everything on the scorecard is configurable to your exact needs and wants

METRICS COVERAGE

• Core Recession Metrics: Real GDP, Gross Domestic Income, Total Nonfarm Payrolls, Civilian Employment, Real Personal Income, Real Personal Consumption, Industrial Production
  
• Key Economic Indicators: Unemployment Rate, Yield Curve (10Y-2Y), M2 Money Supply, Fed Balance Sheet, Consumer Sentiment, Leading Economic Index, ISM Manufacturing PMI, Building Permits, NY Fed Recession Probability
  
• Financial Stress Metrics: Financial Conditions Index (NFCI), High-Yield Spread, TED Spread, Corporate Spread (BAA-AAA), VIX, Initial Jobless Claims
  
• Delinquency Tracking: All Loans, Consumer Loans, Credit Card, Business Loans, Residential RE, Single Family Residential, Commercial RE
  
• Quantitative Ratios: Employment/Population Ratio, GDP/GDI Ratio, Income/Consumption Ratio, Monetary Velocity, Industrial Momentum, Real Interest Rate
  

USE CASES

• Assess economic and monetary policy impacts before making asset allocation decisions
  
• Monitor recessionary risk through multiple independent methodologies and the unified composite score
  
• Track credit stress as an early warning system before problems appear in broader markets
  
• Validate or challenge economic narratives circulating in financial media against objective, sourced data
  
• Time entries and exits in risk assets based on macro regime identification
  
• Compare current conditions against historical precedents using the multi-period change analysis
  

TECHNICAL SPECIFICATIONS

• Optimized data architecture reduced script complexity from 40+ request.security() calls to 38 highly efficient calls
  
• Function-based table rendering dramatically improves execution speed and reduces loading times
  
• Chart labels display full metric names with MA configuration details for immediate identification
  
• Modular dashboard sections can be individually enabled or disabled based on your focus areas
  
• Risk threshold levels are fully adjustable to match your personal risk tolerance
  

You can setup precise alerts to be notified when specific recessionary risk models are forecasting a potential recession in the horizon, this can be tailored to your customized needs