█ STRATEGY DESCRIPTION The "Consecutive Bars Above MA Strategy" is a contrarian trading system aimed at exploiting overextended bullish moves in stocks and ETFs. It monitors the number of consecutive bars that close above a chosen short-term moving average (which can be either a Simple Moving Average or an Exponential Moving Average). Once the count reaches a preset threshold and the current bar’s close exceeds the previous bar’s high within a designated trading window, a short entry is initiated. An optional EMA filter further refines entries by requiring that the current close is below the 200-period EMA, helping to ensure that trades are taken in a bearish environment.
█ HOW ARE THE CONSECUTIVE BULLISH COUNTS CALCULATED? The strategy utilizes a counter variable, `bullCount`, to track consecutive bullish bars based on their relation to the short-term moving average. Here’s how the count is determined:
Initialize the Counter The counter is initialized at the start:
Bullish Bar Detection For each bar, if the close is above the selected moving average (either SMA or EMA, based on user input), the counter is incremented:
Reset on Non-Bullish Condition If the close does not exceed the moving average, the counter resets to zero, indicating a break in the consecutive bullish streak.
█ SIGNAL GENERATION
1. SHORT ENTRY A short signal is generated when:
The number of consecutive bullish bars (i.e., bars closing above the short-term MA) meets or exceeds the defined threshold (default: 3).
The current bar’s close is higher than the previous bar’s high.
The signal occurs within the specified trading window (between Start Time and End Time).
Additionally, if the EMA filter is enabled, the entry is only executed when the current close is below the 200-period EMA.
2. EXIT CONDITION
An exit signal is triggered when the current close falls below the previous bar’s low, prompting the strategy to close the short position.
█ ADDITIONAL SETTINGS
Threshold: The number of consecutive bullish bars required to trigger a short entry (default is 3).
Trading Window: The Start Time and End Time inputs define when the strategy is active.
Moving Average Settings: Choose between SMA and EMA, and set the MA length (default is 5), which is used to assess each bar’s bullish condition.
EMA Filter (Optional): When enabled, this filter requires that the current close is below the 200-period EMA, supporting entries in a downtrend.
█ PERFORMANCE OVERVIEW
This strategy is designed for stocks and ETFs and can be applied across various timeframes.
It seeks to capture mean reversion by shorting after a series of bullish bars suggests an overextended move.
The approach employs a contrarian short entry by waiting for a breakout (close > previous high) following consecutive bullish bars.
The adjustable moving average settings and optional EMA filter allow for further optimization based on market conditions.
Comprehensive backtesting is recommended to fine-tune the threshold, moving average parameters, and filter settings for optimal performance.