Fib-SMAs + 23↘38 Signal

🧠 Fibonacci SMAs — and the Bearish Power of the 23↘38 Cross
This script plots a ribbon of 5 Simple Moving Averages (SMAs), each derived from Fibonacci retracement ratios:
23.6%, 38.2%, 50%, 61.8%, and 78.6% — all calculated as percentages of a base length (default: 100 bars).

It transforms the classical Fibonacci concept from static price levels into a dynamic trend structure based on time.

🔍 The Pattern I Discovered
When studying the Daily BTC chart, I found a powerful recurring signal:

When the 23.6% SMA (fuchsia) crosses below the 38.2% SMA (teal),
Bitcoin tends to pull back significantly in the following weeks.

This signal, which I call the 23↘38 cross, shows up at:

Major market tops

Bull market pauses

Local overextensions during trend runs

In backtested cases since 2014, this cross preceded corrections of 8–35%, usually playing out over the following 10–40 days.

⚠️ What’s Happening Now?
A fresh 23↘38 bearish cross has just occurred on the Daily BTC chart.
Historically, these setups often result in BTC pulling back into the zone where the 61.8% and 78.6% SMAs act as mean reversion targets.

That puts the next major support zone in the range of $94.5k to $79k — highlighted automatically on the chart when the signal appears.

💡 Why Use Fibonacci for Time?
Fibonacci levels (0.236, 0.382, 0.618...) are traditionally used on the price axis.

This tool flips that idea: it applies Fibonacci ratios to the time axis — calculating SMAs that reflect natural market timing rhythms, not just support/resistance lines.

The result is a ribbon of rhythm, where each line represents a unique retracement of time-based momentum.

🧰 Features Included
Besides the core 23↘38 bearish signal, the script includes optional toggleable modules:

Name Description
Ribbon Flip-and-Go Detects full bullish or bearish alignment and trend ignition
Pinch Breakout Flags volatility compression followed by expansion
Deep-Dip Buy/Sell Finds smart pullbacks in ongoing trends using the 61.8% SMA

Each one includes alertcondition() support, so you can automate strategies or trading bots.

🧭 How to Trade It
Use the 23↘38 cross as an early warning to:

Secure profits

De-risk exposure

Watch for pullbacks to the slower SMAs (61.8% / 78.6%)

It’s not a short signal by itself, but a macro timing filter that consistently front-runs volatility drops in overheated markets.

📉 Historical Examples (BTC 1D)
Nov 2021 top → -35% drop

April 2022 rally → -28% retracement

Mid-2023 local high → -15% correction

June 2025 cross → current signal, target zone: 94.5k–79k

⚠️ Disclaimer
This is not financial advice. It’s a tool for studying probability patterns in price action.
Use it alongside proper risk management and market context.