GLOBAL RISK TERMINAL

Concept
Measures different macro ratios being:
- Copper / Gold : measuring Real-economy vs safe-haven metals
- Russell 200/ S&P 500 : measuring Small-cap vs large-cap equity rotation
- 10 Year Notes / Dollar : measuring Bond strength vs USD strength

Each ratio contributes +1 when it’s trending up (risk-on), and –1 when trending down (risk-off).
Then you average them to get a score between –1 and +1:

Score Interpretation
+1.0 Full risk-on (liquidity inflow, small-cap rotation, copper leading)
+0.33 to +0.66 Moderate risk-on bias
0 Neutral / transition
–0.33 to –0.66 Cautious risk-off
–1.0 Full risk-off (liquidity drain, safety bid, growth stress)

Logic Behind The Ratios
⚙️ 1️⃣ HG / GC → “Growth Engine vs Liquidity Stress”

(Copper divided by Gold)

What it measures

Gold (GC) = liquidity hedge, monetary demand, fear bid.

Copper (HG) = real-economy demand, credit creation, growth optimism.

So HG/GC shows the market’s preference for safety vs growth.


How to read it

- Rising (HG↑ faster or GC↓) Growth demand rising faster than fear hedge. ✅ Risk-on/reflation
- Falling (GC↑ faster than HG or HG↓) Investors hoarding safety, selling growth metals.⚠️Risk-off / tightening liquidity
- Flat / diverging daily vs weekly, Transition phase, often pre-trend change.🕐 Watch for equity breakout or correction

⚙️ 2️⃣ RTY / ES → “Risk Appetite within Equities”

(Russell 2000 divided by S&P 500)

What it measures

RTY (small-caps) = domestic, credit-sensitive, high-beta stocks.

ES (S&P 500) = large-cap, defensive, global.
So this ratio shows where equity capital is rotating.

How to read it

- Rising : Investors prefer small-caps → higher risk tolerance.✅ Risk-on / expansion
- Falling : Flow into large-caps → seeking safety, liquidity preference.⚠️ Risk-off / defensive rotation
- Extreme divergence from NQ : NQ rallying while RTY/ES sinking = late-cycle blow-off.🚨 Early short signal

⚙️ 3️⃣ ZN / DXY → “Global Liquidity Pulse”

(10-year Treasury Note divided by U.S. Dollar Index)

What it measures

ZN = Treasury price (yields inverse). Higher = lower yields = easier liquidity.

DXY = global dollar strength. Higher = tighter funding, stronger USD demand.
Thus ZN/DXY captures liquidity inflows vs liquidity drains.

How to read it

- Rising (Bonds↑, USD↓) : Capital buying bonds & selling dollars → easing financial conditions. ✅ Risk-on
- Falling (Bonds↓, USD↑) : Liquidity draining; higher yields + dollar squeeze.⚠️ Risk-off
- Mixed (Bonds↑ + USD↑) : Safe-haven conflict → short-term volatility / indecision.🟠 Neutral / chop