Z-Score Mean Reversion Strategy

Based on Indicator "Rolling Z- Score trend" by QuantAlgo

The Z-Score Mean Reversion Strategy is a statistical trading approach that exploits price extremes and their tendency to return to average levels. It uses the Z-Score indicator to identify when an asset has deviated significantly from its statistical mean, creating high-probability reversal opportunities.
Core Concept:

Z-Score measures how many standard deviations price is from its moving average
When Z-Score reaches extreme levels (±1.5 or more), price is statistically "stretched"
The strategy trades the expected "snap back" to the mean
Works best in ranging or mean-reverting markets

How It Works:

LONG Entry: When price becomes oversold (Z-Score < -1.5), expect upward reversion
SHORT Entry: When price becomes overbought (Z-Score > +1.5), expect downward reversion
Exit: When price returns closer to the mean or reaches opposite extreme
Risk Management: Stop loss at -3% and take profit at +5% by default


🎯 Best Settings by Market & Timeframe
Cryptocurrency (High Volatility)

Preset: Scalping
Timeframe: 15m - 1H
Lookback: 10-15 periods
Entry Threshold: 1.0 - 1.5
Stop Loss: 2-3%
Take Profit: 3-5%
Notes: Crypto moves fast; use tighter parameters for quicker signals

Forex (Medium Volatility)

Preset: Default or Swing Trading
Timeframe: 1H - 4H
Lookback: 20-25 periods
Entry Threshold: 1.5 - 2.0
Stop Loss: 1-2%
Take Profit: 2-4%
Notes: Works well on major pairs during normal market conditions

Stocks (Lower Volatility)

Preset: Swing Trading
Timeframe: 4H - Daily
Lookback: 25-30 periods
Entry Threshold: 1.5 - 1.8
Stop Loss: 2-4%
Take Profit: 4-8%
Notes: Best on liquid stocks; avoid during earnings or major news

Indices (Trend + Ranging)

Preset: Trend Following
Timeframe: Daily - Weekly
Lookback: 35-50 periods
Entry Threshold: 2.0 - 2.5
Stop Loss: 3-5%
Take Profit: 5-10%
Notes: Higher threshold reduces false signals; captures major reversals


⚙️ Optimal Configuration Guide
Conservative (Lower Risk, Fewer Trades)
Lookback Period: 30-40
Entry Threshold: 2.0-2.5
Exit Threshold: 0.8-1.0
Stop Loss: 3-4%
Take Profit: 6-10%
Momentum Filter: ON
Balanced (Recommended Starting Point)
Lookback Period: 20-25
Entry Threshold: 1.5-1.8
Exit Threshold: 0.5-0.6
Stop Loss: 2-3%
Take Profit: 4-6%
Momentum Filter: OFF
Aggressive (Higher Risk, More Trades)
Lookback Period: 10-15
Entry Threshold: 1.0-1.2
Exit Threshold: 0.3-0.4
Stop Loss: 1-2%
Take Profit: 2-4%
Momentum Filter: OFF

💡 Pro Tips for Best Results
When the Strategy Works Best:
✅ Ranging markets with clear support/resistance
✅ High liquidity assets (major pairs, large-cap stocks)
✅ Normal market conditions (avoid during crashes or parabolic runs)
✅ Mean-reverting assets (avoid strong trending stocks)
When to Avoid:
❌ Strong trending markets (price won't revert)
❌ Low liquidity / low volume periods
❌ Major news events (earnings, FOMC, NFP)
❌ Market crashes or euphoria phases
Optimization Process:

Start with "Default" preset on your chosen timeframe
Backtest 6-12 months to see performance
Adjust Entry Threshold first (lower = more trades, higher = fewer but stronger signals)
Fine-tune Stop Loss/Take Profit based on average trade duration
Consider Momentum Filter if getting too many false signals

Key Metrics to Monitor:

Win Rate: Target 50-60% (mean reversion typically has moderate win rate)
Profit Factor: Aim for >1.5
Average Trade Duration: Should match your timeframe (scalping: minutes/hours, swing: days)
Max Drawdown: Keep under 20% of capital


📈 Quick Start Recommendation
For most traders, start here:

Timeframe: 1H or 4H
Preset: Default (Lookback 20, Threshold 1.5)
Stop Loss: 3%
Take Profit: 5%
Momentum Filter: OFF (turn ON if too many false entries)

Test on BTCUSD, EURUSD, or SPY first, then adapt to your preferred instruments!