OPEN-SOURCE SCRIPT

True Trend Average Bands

已更新

This is the indicator I am most proud of. After reading Glenn Neely's book "Mastering Eliott Waves" / "Neowave" and chatting with timwest who got acknowledged by Neely, we came up with the idea of an moving average which does calculate the real average price since a trend started. Addionally I adapted a method from Neely Neowave and Tim Wests TimeAtMode to not force a timeframe on a chart but instead let the charts data decide which timeframe to use, to then calculate the real average price since the trend started.

It took me a while to get this right and coded, so take a moment and dive deeper and you might learn something new.

We assume that the price is in multiple trends on multiple timeframes, this is caused by short term traders, long term traders and investors who trade on different timeframes. To find out in which timeframe the important trends are, we have to look out for significant lows and highs. Then we change the timeframe in the chart to a value so that we have 10 to 20 bars since the significant low/high. While new bars are printed, and we reach more than 20 bars, we have to switch to a higher timeframe so we have 10 to 20 bars again. In the chart you see two significant trends: a downtrend on the 3 week timeframe and an uptrend from the 2 month timeframe. Based on the logic I have described, these are the two important timeframes to watch right now for the spx (there is another uptrend in the yearly chart, which is not shown here).

Now that we understand how to find the important timeframes, let's look what the magic in this script is that tells us the real average price since a trend started.
I developed a new type of moving average, which includes only the prices since a trend started. The difference to the regular sma is that it will not include prices which happened before the significant low or high happened. For example, if a top happened in a market 10 days ago, the regular sma20 would be calculated by 10 bars which happened before the top and 10 bars which happened after the top. If we want to know the average price of the last 10 bars we manually have to change the ma20 to the ma10 which is annoying manual work, additionally even if we use the ma10 in this case, and we look at yesterday's bar the ma10 will include 9 bars from after the top and one bar before the top, so the ma10 would only show the real average price for the current bar which is not what we want.
To come up with a solution to this problem, the True Trend Average searches for the lowest/highest bar in a given period (20 bars). Then starts to calculate the average value since the low/high. For example: if the price reaches a new 20 day high and then trades below it, the day of the high will be the sma1, the day after it's the sma2, ... up to the maximum look back length.
This way, we always know what the average price would have been if someone sold/bought a little bit every bar of his investment since the high/low.
Why is this even important? Let's assume we missed selling the top or buying the low, and think it would have been at least better to buy/sell a little bit since the new trend started. Once the price reaches the true trend average again, we can buy/sell, and it would be as good as selling/buying a little bit every day. We find prices to buy the dip and sell the bounce, which are as good as scaling in/out.
There is a lot more we can learn from these price levels but I think it is better to let you figure out yourself what you can learn from the information given by this indicator. Think about how market participants who accumulate or distribute feel when prices are above or below certain levels.

Now that we understand this new type of moving average, let's look into the lines we see in the chart:

The upper red band line shows the true trend average high price since the last significant top within 20 bars.
The lower red band line shows the true trend average hl2 price since the last significant top within 20 bars.
The lower green band line shows the true trend average low price since the last significant low within 20 bars.
The upper green band line shows the true trend average hl2 price since the last significant low within 20 bars.
The centerline is the average between the upper red band and the lower green band.
The teal lines show 1 standard deviation from the outer bands.

Before today only a few people had access to this indicator, now that it is public and open source, I am curious if you will find it useful and what you will do with it. Please share your findings.

/edit: The chart only shows the 3week timeframe so here are the other two trends from the 2month and 1year timeframe