SPX Excess CAPE YieldHere we are looking at the Excess CAPE yield for the SPX500 over the last 100+ years
"A higher CAPE meant a lower subsequent 10-year return, and vice versa. The R-squared was a phenomenally high 0.9 — the CAPE on its own was enough to explain 90% of stocks’ subsequent performance over a decade. The standard deviation was 1.37% — in other words, two-thirds of the time the prediction was within 1.37 percentage points of the eventual outcome: this over a quarter-century that included an equity bubble, a credit bubble, two epic bear markets, and a decade-long bull market."
assets.bwbx.io
In December of 2020 Dr. Robert Shiller the Yale Nobel Laurate suggested that an improvement on CAPE could be made by taking its inverse (the CAPE earnings yield) and subtracting the us10 year treasury yield.
"His model plainly suggests that stocks will do badly over the next 10 years, and that bonds will do even worse. This was the way Shiller put it in a research piece for Barclays Plc in October, (which can be found on SSRN Below):
In summary, investors expect a certain return in equities as compensation for investing in a riskier asset class, and as interest rates have declined, the relative expected return for equities has increased dramatically. We believe this may quantitatively help to explain investors current preference for equities over bonds, and as such the quick recoveries we are observing (with the exception of the UK), whilst still in the midst of a pandemic. In the US in particular, we are once again observing stretched valuations and high CAPE ratios compared to history."
Sources:
papers.ssrn.com
www.bloomberg.com
The standard trading view disclaimer applies to this post -- please consult your own investment advisor before making investment decisions. This post is for observation only and has no warranty etc. www.tradingview.com
Best,
JM
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Distance from the ATH priceThis indicator shows us the distance (in %) between the current price and the ATH price.
The closer the price is to the ATH the higher the percentage.
100% means we reached the ATH price.
HOW TO USE:
No special input necessary.
Markets:
It can be used to all markets.
NOTE:
Some Exchanges don't go very far back in the past and for this reason this may have impact on this Indicator.
Stock Value Display//This study is designed to plot estimates for a stock's value:
//1) the Price to earnings ratio (PE) value based on the trailing twelve months of data
//2) the PE value based future data
//3) the Benjamin Graham value based trailing data
//4) the Dividend Discount value based on trailing data
You can adjust the period of data used to calculate the value between Fiscal Quarter "FQ" and Fiscal Year "FY."
The values displayed on the chart are subject to the financial information provided to TradingView. This is intended to be used as a quick reference and should be viewed in context with other analysis prior to making any transaction decisions.
As always, happy trading!
P1 FundamentalsP1 is because to me, this is a priority 1 indicator, so I have P1 and P2 indicators ordered on the favorite list.
What can you check on the selection pane?
On “period”, you can show the data related to:
the fiscal quarters
or the fiscal years.
You can select a pack of financial data that I have organized in sections:
Revenue & earnings
EPS & DPS (EPS, EPS estimate, DPS and dividend payout ratio )
Debt (total debt, total equity and cash & equivalents)
Returns (ROE, ROIC, ROA and R&D revenue to ratio)
I recommend to just select one of them, in other case the chart is a mess.
Any feedback on the code is welcome!!
GBTC premium as a percentage of the bitcoin pricePlots the GBTC premium as a percentage of the bitcoin price at the close. It also includes the annual management fee (2% at the moment). It accrues on a daily, weekly or monthly basis depending on the chart resolution. (intraday not supported) The amount of bitcoin per gbtc share and the annual fee may be changed by Grayscale in the future. Those values can be easily update in the script settings.
FAIR P/E BASED ON INTEREST RATESJust a different way to view S&P 500 valuations versus the standard look of looking at raw PE. Current yield of the 10 Year Bonds are used to calculate a fair value for the SPX.
This is a methodology that Buffett uses to measure value.
Recommend turning off most plots and just plotting PE and/or PE10 percent difference only.
The "slope and intercept" inputs should be left alone unless you recalculate them with updated data.
The "current PE and PE10" inputs can be found here: www.multpl.com This is a daily estimated value.
The full calculated value is released once per month, and is what Quandl has. Change these numbers if you want today's updated values.
Once you have the study set up the way you want, I recommend saving the defaults (bottom left corner in the settings screen).
Rise from All Time LowThis very simple script lets you see how much the asset rose from the All Time Low (ATL).
First, the ATL is calculated and plotted. Then, we measure the distance from ATL and current bar close.
Two labels are plotted :
ATL label
Current close label with rise and rise
It can be useful for penny stocks trading when you want to buy lows but must see how much the price rose last bars to improve entries.
For example, SQBG is actually "only" at x 1.85 from ATL (not an advice in investment) :
If you have ideas to complete or improve this script, let me know in comments ;)
Position CalculatorThis script calculates how much cryptos or dollars you have to bet with 4 variables : Risk Loss , Leverage, Entry and Stop Loss.
When you want to open a position, just complete the parameters and the script will tell you how much you have to bet in dollars or cryptos units, depending the way you're trading.
Note : don't foreget that you have to pay fees on exchanges whose are not included here, specially with high leverage trades.
Fast ROI checker 50% Gann RetracementThis script is based on the Gann's 50% Retracement rule.
First, the ATH (All Time High) and ATL (All Time Low) are calculated; then, the 50% retracement level is found.
With this 50% level, we'll calculate the maximum price entry to keep a ROI which is set in the parameters.
For exemple, I only want to buy assets which can make a x16 before the 50% retracement , the script will calculate the maximum entry to respect this ROI .
If the Max entry price is above the ATL , the line will be green; if not, the line will be red.
To faster the search in the watchlist, when the price is between the Max Entry line and the ATL line, the background is painted in green.
It's not an investment strategy, you have to find your proper indicators to make purchases.
Enjoy !
Graham FormulaThis is an Tradingview implementation of the Grahams Formula as described in Benjamin Grahams book "The Intelligent Investor".
In theory this can be used to screen for over- and undervalued stocks, however as Graham himself notes, you should look into other fundamentals when using them in conjunction with Grahams formula.
Buy Any Bar By ChenycoBuys amount of shares by bars with specified amount of money (100$ for a month bar for example).
Including commissions.
LotSizeCalc_v1 (EUR)Hey there,
here I like to publish my first TradingView Script for the Indicator "LotSizeCalc" which calculates the LotSize for the currency '€' for e.g. the MT4-App depending on the following parameters:
- Stop Loss in pips (example: 30 pips)
- Account Balance in EUR (example: 500€)
- Risk in % (example: 1%)
It is very similar to the MyFxBook Calculator on their website, where you can compare the results for the lotsize.
You receive the calculated value next to the indicator, and - for mobile device - it also shows a label with the calculated lotsize (which you can deacivate via settings if you like).
The indicator works for the included common foreign Forex pairs (AUD, CAD, CHF, JPY, JPY, GBP, NZD, USD) in order to calculate the risk to a EUR-Trading Account.
Actually, the Script allows in general some adaptations due to your trading system. This one is the most basic version.
Happy pips and I wish you safe and risk-calculated trading!
Marcel :)
PEG RatioHello everyone,
Quick script to check the PEG Ratio.
What is PEG Ratio?
The price/earnings to growth ratio (PEG Ratio) is a stock's price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio divided by the growth rate of its earnings for a specified time period. The PEG ratio is used to determine a stock's value while also factoring in the company's expected earnings growth, and is thought to provide a more complete picture than the more standard P/E ratio.
A PEG Ratio greater than 1.0 means that the stock is overvalued, while below 1.0 means is is undervalued. When the PEG Ratio is exactly 1.0, then the stock is trading at fair valuation.
Formula:
PEG Ratio = (Price / EPS) / EPS Growth
Examples:
Company A:
Price per share = $46
EPS this year = $2.09
EPS last year = $1.74
Company B
Price per share = $80
EPS this year = $2.67
EPS last year = $1.78
Company A
P/E ratio = $46 / $2.09 = 22
Earnings growth rate = ($2.09 / $1.74) - 1 = 20%
PEG ratio = 22 / 20 = 1.1
Company B
P/E ratio = $80 / $2.67 = 30
Earnings growth rate = ($2.67 / $1.78) - 1 = 50%
PEG ratio = 30 / 50 = 0.6
The company A is overvalued whiled the B is undervalued.
In this script an overvalued stock is considered when the PEG Ratio is above 1.1, while it is 0.9 for an undervalued stock.
Only works with Stocks.
Happy trading,
[e2] EDS Key & AvwapThis indicator shows a Key Level Support & Resistance level and VWAP that resets on your choice of the stock's Earnings , Dividends or Splits release date.
A maximum of 8 bands calculated using a factor of the anchored VWAP's standard deviation can be displayed.
Note
The script is designed for stock-trading only.
Credits
Inspired by timwest , LazyBear 's Earnings S/R Levels and MichelT 's Earnings, Splits, Dividends scripts.
Earnings, Splits, DividendsExample of requesting Earnings, Splits, Dividends using pine-script.
That way is inner representation of data in TradingView, so it can be changed any time. It's just an example of requesting of the data.
Description of the series.
Earnings:
time: report date (unix time stamp)
open: estimate value
low: reported value
close: actual value
high: fiscal period (unix time stamp)
Splits:
time: split date (unix time stamp)
close: split denominator
open: split numerator
Dividends:
time: ex-dividend date (unix time stamp)
close: amount
Bitcoin Halving CountdownHello traders,
I offer you today the BTC halving countdown updated in real-time on your charts
I inspired myself greatly from the gentleman @everget's script LTC halving countdown below
(
The countdown date is coming from that source www.bitcoinblockhalf.com.
The halving date is estimated to be around May 13th, 2020 .
That date is hardcoded in the script and is used for the countdown calculation.
The Bitcoin block mining reward halves every 210,000 blocks, the coin reward will decrease from 12.5 to 6.25 coins.
Enjoy the weekend
Dave
Rate Of Change Earnings Move - ROCEMRate Of Change Earnings Move
What is it and how does it work?
The Rate of Change Earnings Move indicator or ROCEM is an indicator designed for giving the user an idea of how much a stock has moved up or down in past earnings reports. This is ideal for options traders who can use ROCEM to calculate whether or not their long straddles are actually probable of happening.
How it works
The indicator measures the absolute value rate of change and then calculates the average rate of change for the day of the earnings report for the past 8 earnings reports (2 years). It then takes the current stock price and finds the upper and lower price based on the average rate of change for past earnings.
I have also included a moving average (purple line), use this to see if the current rate of change is higher than usual.
Additionally, earnings reports are marked with a red x on the indicator.
How to trade ROCEM
This is primarily made for options trading so I will be explaining how it can be used for that. It is not suited for traditional stock trading as it does not determine a market direction.
Select a stock with an upcoming earnings
Enter your per leg commissions in the indicator if you want it to calculate new upper and lower prices (makes it easier to determine if the options trade will pass the breakeven when commissions are factored in)
Compare your long straddle breakevens with the upper and lower prices of the indicator. If the upper breakeven is smaller than the upper price in ROCEM and the lower breakeven is larger than the lower price in ROCEM, then a long straddle position could be considered a reasonable trade based on past earnings performance.
Earnings Support and Resistance Levels [NeoButane]Inspired by @LazyBear's/@timwest's script:
Usage: support and resistance levels based on averaging price around earnings and quarterly opens.
What it is plotting:
1. A horizontal level whenever earnings occur. If actual earnings is higher than estimated, the line turns green, else red.
2. A horizontal level every quarterly open, colored black.
3. An average between the two mentioned above, colored orange.
4. 5% moves away from 3M open and earnings
5. Misc: 5% move away from that 5% move away, then 10% move away from the 2nd 5% move away.
By default, 4 and 5 are off to reduce visual noise.
Idea: Traders panic around certain dates that always happen, and traders always panic in the wrong direction. The market is composed of traders trading in the wrong direction at the same time, all the time. That means price will bounce back and forth as the gambling dens colloquially known as 'forex brokerages' or 'stock exchanges' take your money in the form of fees, time, and liquidations. So I put two lines on the chart and put one right in between, because it always goes back. I hope you can find it useful!
Note: This was a part of the old fundamental data indicators and is not officially for use, so while it should work on most U.S. stocks and a couple of other exchanges, it is not perfect.
Stupid strategyStrategy with simple stop-loss and take-profit in percentage. If last trade was a successful one then repeat it. If not successful - do a reversal trade.
