Valuation ToolOVERVIEW
Valuation Indicator is a trading tool which designed to help you identify the relative value of an asset, compared to the other asset.
CONCEPTS
The Indicator help you calculate the relative value between chosen assets by measuring their price deviation, for example comparing NASDAQ with Dollar Index or Treasury Bond. It is used primarily to identify overbought and oversold conditions.
To understand its relative value, Equities and Indices are usually compared to the Treasury Bond and Dollar Index, meanwhile other asset like Major FX Pairs, Precious Metals, and Energies are compared to Dollar Index.
The Indicator comes with adjustable parameters, like threshold, timeframe, and smooth value to flexibly reduce noice and improve accuracy.
DETAILS & EXAMPLE OF HOW TO USE
An example of Nasdaq chart to demonstrate the indicator in real market scenario.
Blue graph indicate the Dollar Index (DYX) Index, showing undervalued under -0.75 level.
On the same time, Orange graph indicate the Treasury Bond Index, showing also an undervalued level under -0.75.
Base on those information, combine with other technical strategy on the same timeframe or even lower timeframe. For example using Supply & Demand to find the entry.
The result is a massive push to the upside hitting more than 1:3.
FEATURES
3 Flexible symbols to pairing in 1 indicator.
Show and hide each symbol independently.
Adjustable timeframe, smoothing value, lower & upper threshold.
LIMITATIONS
The Indicator is best applied on weekly or daily chart.
Not intended as a stand-alone signal, but should be as part of long-term strategy analysis.
Should be combined with other lower-timeframe technical tools like supply and demand.
Valuation
Arnaud Legoux Trend Aggregator | Lyro RSArnaud Legoux Trend Aggregator
Introduction
Arnaud Legoux Trend Aggregator is a custom-built trend analysis tool that blends classic market oscillators with advanced normalization, advanced math functions and Arnaud Legoux smoothing. Unlike conventional indicators, 𝓐𝓛𝓣𝓐 aggregates market momentum, volatility and trend strength.
Signal Insight
The 𝓐𝓛𝓣𝓐 line visually reflects the aggregated directional bias. A rise above the middle line threshold signals bullish strength, while a drop below the middle line indicates bearish momentum.
Another way to interpret the 𝓐𝓛𝓣𝓐 is through overbought and oversold conditions. When the 𝓐𝓛𝓣𝓐 rises above the +0.7 threshold, it suggests an overbought market and signals a strong uptrend. Conversely, a drop below the -0.7 level indicates an oversold condition and a strong downtrend.
When the oscillator hovers near the zero line, especially within the neutral ±0.3 band, it suggests that no single directional force is dominating—common during consolidation phases or pre-breakout compression.
Real-World Example
Usually 𝓐𝓛𝓣𝓐 is used by following the bar color for simple signals; however, like most indicators there are unique ways to use an indicator. Let’s dive deep into such ways.
The market begins with a green bar color, raising awareness for a potential long setup—but not a direct entry. In this methodology, bar coloring serves as an alert mechanism rather than a strict entry trigger.
The first long position was initiated when the 𝓐𝓛𝓣𝓐 signal line crossed above the +0.3 threshold, suggesting a shift in directional acceleration. This entry coincided with a rising price movement, validating the trade.
As price advanced, the position was exited into cash—not reversed into a short—because the short criteria for this use case are distinct. The exit was prompted by 𝓐𝓛𝓣𝓐 crossing back below the +0.3 level, signaling the potential weakening of the long trend.
Later, as 𝓐𝓛𝓣𝓐 crossed below 0, attention shifted toward short opportunities. A short entry was confirmed when 𝓐𝓛𝓣𝓐 dipped below -0.3, indicating growing downside momentum. The position was eventually closed when 𝓐𝓛𝓣𝓐 crossed back above the -0.3 boundary—signaling a possible deceleration of the bearish move.
This logic was consistently applied in subsequent setups, emphasizing the role of 𝓐𝓛𝓣𝓐’s thresholds in guiding both entries and exits.
Framework
The Arnaud Legoux Trend Aggregator (ALTA) combines multiple technical indicators into a single smoothed signal. It uses RSI, MACD, Bollinger Bands, Stochastic Momentum Index, and ATR.
Each indicator's output is normalized to a common scale to eliminate bias and ensure consistency. These normalized values are then transformed using a hyperbolic tangent function (Tanh).
The final score is refined with a custom Arnaud Legoux Moving Average (ALMA) function, which offers responsive smoothing that adapts quickly to price changes. This results in a clear signal that reacts efficiently to shifting market conditions.
⚠️ WARNING ⚠️: THIS INDICATOR, OR ANY OTHER WE (LYRO RS) PUBLISH, IS NOT FINANCIAL OR INVESTMENT ADVICE. EVERY INDICATOR SHOULD BE COMBINED WITH PRICE ACTION, FUNDAMENTALS, OTHER TECHNICAL ANALYSIS TOOLS & PROPER RISK. MANAGEMENT.
S&P 500 & Normalized CAPE Z-Score AnalyzerThis macro-focused indicator visualizes the historical valuation of the U.S. equity market using the CAPE ratio (Shiller P/E), normalized over its long-term average and standard deviations. It helps traders and investors identify overvaluation and undervaluation zones over time, combining both statistical signals and historical context.
💡 Why It’s Useful
This indicator is ideal for macro traders and long-term investors looking to contextualize equity valuations across decades. It helps identify statistical extremes in valuation by referencing the standard deviation of the CAPE ratio relative to its long-term mean. The overlay of S&P 500 price with valuation zones provides a visual confirmation tool for macro decisions or timing insights.
It includes:
✅ Three display modes:
-S&P 500 (color-coded by CAPE valuation zone)
-Normalized CAPE (vs. long-term mean)
-CAPE Z-Score (standardized measure)
🎯 How to Interpret
Dynamic coloring of the S&P 500 price based on CAPE valuation:
🔴 Z > +2σ → Highly Overvalued
🟠 Z > +1σ → Overvalued
⚪ -1σ < Z < +1σ → Neutral
🟢 Z < -1σ → Undervalued
✅ Z < -2σ → Strong Buy Zone
-Live valuation label showing the current CAPE, Z-score, and zone.
-Macro event shading: major historical events (e.g. Great Depression, Oil Crisis, Dot-com Bubble, COVID Crash) are shaded on the chart for context.
✅ Built-in alerts:
CAPE > +2σ → Potential risk zone
CAPE < -2σ → Potential opportunity zone
📊 Use Cases
This indicator is ideal for:
🧠 Macro traders seeking long-term valuation extremes.
📈 Portfolio managers monitoring systemic valuation risk.
🏛️ Long-term investors timing strategic allocation shifts.
🧪 How It Works
CAPE ratio (Shiller PE) is retrieved from Quandl (MULTPL/SHILLER_PE_RATIO_MONTH).
The script calculates the long-term average and standard deviation of CAPE.
The Z-score is computed as:
(CAPE - Mean) / Standard Deviation
Users can switch between:
S&P 500 chart, color-coded by CAPE valuation zones.
Normalized CAPE, centered around zero (historic mean).
CAPE Z-score, showing statistical positioning directly.
Visual bands represent +1σ, +2σ, -1σ, -2σ thresholds.
You can switch between modes using the “Display” dropdown in the settings panel.
📊 Data Sources
CAPE: MULTPL/SHILLER_PE_RATIO_MONTH via Quandl
S&P 500: Monthly close prices of SPX (TradingView data)
All data updated on monthly resolution
This is not a repackaged built-in or autogenerated script. It’s a custom-built and interactive indicator designed for educational and analytical use in macroeconomic valuation studies.
FA Dashboard: Valuation, Profitability & SolvencyFundamental Analysis Dashboard: A Multi-Dimensional View of Company Quality
This script presents a structured and customizable dashboard for evaluating a company’s fundamentals across three key dimensions: Valuation, Profitability, and Solvency & Liquidity.
Unlike basic fundamental overlays, this dashboard consolidates multiple financial indicators into visual tables that update dynamically and are grouped by category. Each ratio is compared against configurable thresholds, helping traders quickly assess whether a company meets certain value investing criteria. The tables use color-coded checkmarks and fail marks (✔️ / ❌) to visually signal pass/fail evaluations.
▶️ Key Features
Valuation Ratios:
Earnings Yield: EBIT / EV
EV / EBIT and EV / FCF: Enterprise value metrics for profitability
Price-to-Book, Free Cash Flow Yield, PEG Ratio
Profitability Ratios:
Return on Invested Capital (ROIC), ROE, Operating, Net & Gross Margins, Revenue Growth
Solvency & Liquidity Ratios:
Debt to Equity, Debt to EBITDA, Current Ratio, Quick Ratio, Altman Z-Score
Each of these metrics is calculated using request.financial() and can be viewed using either annual (FY) or quarterly (FQ) data, depending on user preference.
🧠 How to Use
Add the script to any stock chart.
Select your preferred data period (FY or FQ).
Adjust thresholds if desired to match your personal investing strategy.
Review the visual dashboard to see which metrics the company passes or fails.
💡 Why It’s Useful
This tool is ideal for traders or long-term investors looking to filter stocks using fundamental criteria. It draws inspiration from principles used by Benjamin Graham, Warren Buffett, and Joel Greenblatt, offering a fast and informative way to screen quality businesses.
This is not a repackaged built-in or autogenerated script. It’s a custom-built, interactive tool tailored for fundamental analysis using official financial data provided via Pine Script’s request.financial().
3 Way ValuationThe 3 Way Valuation (3WV) is a composite oscillator that evaluates market conditions by combining a diverse range of metrics into a single smoothed value between 0 and 1. It draws from multiple domains, including momentum, trend strength, volatility, risk-adjusted return ratios, and volume-based analytics to offer a well-rounded view of an asset’s relative positioning.
At its core, 3WV integrates three statistical approaches: Percentile Ranking to assess how current values compare to historical distributions, Z-Score Normalization to measure deviation from the average, and Empirical CDF (ECDF) to estimate the probability of observing a value based on past behavior. These methods are applied across all selected metrics, then normalized and averaged for a comprehensive market sentiment score.
Users can tailor the smoothing level and choose whether to include volume-based components for enhanced filtering. The indicator highlights potential overbought and oversold conditions with customizable thresholds, making it a versatile tool for timing entries, exits, or confirming broader strategies.
Uptrick: Universal Market ValuationIntroduction
Uptrick: Universal Market Valuation is created for traders who seek an analytical tool that brings together multiple signals in one place. Whether you focus on intraday scalping or long-term portfolio management, the indicator merges various well-known technical indicators to help gauge potential overvaluation, undervaluation, and trend direction. It is engineered to highlight different market dimensions, from immediate price momentum to extended cyclical trends.
Overview
The indicator categorizes market conditions into short-term, long-term, or a classic Z-Score style reading. Additionally, it draws on a unified trend line for directional bias. By fusing elements from traditionally separate indicators, the indicator aims to reduce “false positives” while giving a multidimensional view of price behavior. The indicator works best on cryptocurrency markets while remaining a universal valuation indicator that performs well across all timeframes. However, on lower timeframes, the Long-Term Combo input may be too long-term, so it's recommended to select the Short-Term Combo in the inputs for better adaptability.
Originality and Value
The Uptrick: Universal Market Valuation indicator is not just a simple combination of existing technical indicators—it introduces a multi-layered, adaptive valuation model that enhances signal clarity, reduces false positives, and provides traders with a more refined assessment of market conditions.
Rather than treating each included indicator as an independent signal, this script normalizes and synthesizes multiple indicators into a unified composite score, ensuring that short-term and long-term momentum, mean reversion, and trend strength are all dynamically weighted based on market behavior. It employs a proprietary weighting system that adjusts how each component contributes to the final valuation output. Instead of static threshold-based signals, the indicator integrates adaptive filtering mechanisms that account for volatility fluctuations, drawdowns, and momentum shifts, ensuring more reliable overbought/oversold readings.
Additionally, the script applies Z-Score-based deviation modeling, which refines price valuation by filtering out extreme readings that are statistically insignificant. This enhances the detection of true overvaluation and undervaluation points by comparing price behavior against a dynamically calculated standard deviation threshold rather than relying solely on traditional fixed oscillator bands. The MVRV-inspired ratio provides a unique valuation layer by incorporating historical fair-value estimations, offering deeper insight into market overextension.
The Universal Trend Line within the indicator is designed to smooth trend direction while maintaining responsiveness to market shifts. Unlike conventional trend indicators that may lag significantly or produce excessive false signals, this trend-following mechanism dynamically adjusts to changing price structures, helping traders confirm directional bias with reduced noise. This approach enables clearer trend recognition and assists in distinguishing between short-lived pullbacks and sustained market movements.
By merging momentum oscillators, trend strength indicators, volume-driven metrics, statistical deviation models, and long-term valuation principles into a single framework, this indicator eliminates the need for juggling multiple individual indicators, helping traders achieve a holistic market perspective while maintaining customization flexibility. The combination of real-time alerts, dynamic color-based valuation visualization, and customizable trend-following modes further enhances usability, making it a comprehensive tool for traders across different timeframes and asset classes.
Inputs and Features
• Calculation Window (Short-Term and Long-Term)
Defines how much historical data the indicator uses to evaluate the market. A smaller window makes the indicator more reactive, benefiting high-frequency traders. A larger window provides a steadier perspective for longer-term holders.
• Smoothing Period (Short-Term and Long-Term)
Controls how much the raw indicator outputs are “smoothed out.” Lower values reveal subtle intraday fluctuations, while higher values aim to present more robust, stable signals.
• Valuation Mechanism (Short Term Combo, Long Term Combo, Classic Z-Score)
Allows you to pick how the indicator evaluates overvaluation or undervaluation. Short Term Combo focuses on rapid oscillations, Long Term Combo assesses market health over more extended periods, and the Classic Z-Score approach highlights statistically unusual price levels.
Short-Term
• Determination Mechanism (Strict or Loose)
Governs the tolerance for labeling a market as overvalued or undervalued. Strict requires stronger confirmation; Loose begins labeling sooner, potentially catching moves earlier but risking more false signals.
Strict
Loose
• Select Color Scheme
Lets you choose the aesthetic style for your charts. Visual clarity can significantly improve reaction time, especially when multiple indicators are combined.
• Z-Score Coloring Mode (Heat or Slope)
Determines how the Classic Z-Score line and bars are colored. In Heat mode, the indicator intensifies color as readings move further from a baseline average. Slope mode changes color based on the direction of movement, making turning points more evident.
Classic Z-Score - Heat
Classic Z-Score - Slope
• Trend Following Mode (Short, Long, Extra Long, Filtered Long)
Offers various ways to compute and smooth the universal trend line. Short is more sensitive, Long and Extra Long are meant for extended time horizons, and Filtered Long applies an extra smoothing layer to help you see overarching trends rather than smaller fluctuations.
Short Term
Long Term
Extra Long Term
Filtered Long Term
• Table Display
An optional feature that places a concise summary table on the chart. It shows valuation states, trend direction, volatility condition, and other metrics, letting you observe multi-angle readings at a glance.
• Alerts
Multiple alert triggers can be set up—for crossing into overvaluation zones, for abrupt changes in trend, or for high volatility detection. Traders can stay informed without needing to watch charts continuously.
Why These Indicators Were Merged
• RSI (Relative Strength Index)
RSI is a cornerstone momentum oscillator that interprets speed and change of price movements. It has widespread recognition among traders for detecting potential overbought or oversold conditions. Including RSI provides a tried-and-tested layer of momentum insight.
• Stochastic Oscillator
This oscillator evaluates the closing price relative to its recent price range. Its responsiveness makes it valuable for pinpointing near-term price fluctuations. Where RSI offers a broader momentum picture, Stochastic adds fine-tuned detection of short-lived rallies or pullbacks.
• MFI (Money Flow Index)
MFI assesses buying and selling pressure by incorporating volume data. Many technical tools are purely price-based, but MFI’s volume component helps address questions of liquidity and actual money flow, offering a glimpse of how robust or weak a current move might be.
• CCI (Commodity Channel Index)
CCI shows how far price lies from its statistically “typical” trend. It can spot emerging trends or warn of overextension. Using CCI alongside RSI and Stochastic further refines the valuation layer by capturing price deviation from its underlying trajectory.
• ADX (Average Directional Index)
ADX reveals the strength of a trend but does not specify its direction. This is especially useful in combination with other oscillators that focus on bullish or bearish momentum. ADX can clarify whether a market is truly trending or just moving sideways, lending deeper context to the indicator's broader signals.
• MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence)
MACD is known for detecting momentum shifts via the interaction of two moving averages. Its inclusion ensures the indicator can capture transitional phases in market momentum. Where RSI and Stochastic concentrate on shorter-term changes, MACD has a slightly longer horizon for identifying robust directional changes.
• Momentum and ROC (Rate of Change)
Momentum and ROC specifically measure the velocity of price moves. By indicating how quickly (or slowly) price is changing compared to previous bars, they help confirm whether a trend is gathering steam, losing it, or is in a transitional stage.
• MVRV-Inspired Ratio
Drawn loosely from the concept of comparing market value to some underlying historical or fair-value metric, an MVRV-style ratio can help identify if an asset is trading above or below a considered norm. This additional viewpoint on valuation goes beyond simple price-based oscillations.
• Z-Score
Z-Score interprets how many standard deviations current prices deviate from a central mean. This statistical measure is often used to identify extreme conditions—either overly high or abnormally low. Z-Score helps highlight potential mean reversion setups by showing when price strays far from typical levels.
By merging these distinct viewpoints—momentum oscillators, trend strength gauges, volume flow, standard deviation extremes, and fundamental-style valuation measures—the indicator aims to create a well-rounded, carefully balanced final readout. Each component serves a specialized function, and together they can mitigate the weaknesses of a single metric acting alone.
Summary
This indicator simplifies multi-indicator analysis by fusing numerous popular technical signals into one tool. You can switch between short-term and long-term valuation perspectives or adopt a classic Z-Score approach for spotting price extremes. The universal trend line clarifies direction, while user-friendly color schemes, optional tabular summaries, and customizable alerts empower traders to maintain awareness without constantly monitoring every market tick.
Disclaimer
The indicator is made for educational and informational use only, with no claims of guaranteed profitability. Past data patterns, regardless of the indicators used, never ensure future results. Always maintain diligent risk management and consider the broader market context when making trading decisions. This indicator is not personal financial advice, and Uptrick disclaims responsibility for any trading outcomes arising from its use.
Universal Valuation | Lyro RSUniversal Valuation
⚠️ WARNING ⚠️: THIS INDICATOR, OR ANY OTHER WE (LYRO RS) PUBLISH, IS NOT FINANCIAL OR INVESTMENT ADVICE.
Introduction
The Universal Valuation indicator helps identify whether the market is undervalued/cheap or overvalued/expensive. This cutting-edge tool works flawlessly ACROSS ALL TIMEFRAMES & TICKERS/CHARTS.
By combining regular TradingView indicators & some of our valuation indicators basic/simple with advanced statistical functions, this indicator offers a powerful, universal valuation tool.
The Myth
INPUTS:
The Universal Valuation indicator offers flexibility through its customizable input sections. The "Indicator Settings" let you adjust lengths for the raw indicators and statistical functions. The "Signals" section defines thresholds for background color changes, helping you visually spot key market moments. The "Colors" section allows you to pick from pre-defined schemes or personalize colors for better clarity. Lastly, the "Tables" section gives you full control over the UV table’s size and positioning, including options to overlay it on the chart or place it in the allocated space.
A DEEPER INSIGHT:
This indicator is built around three distinct categories: "UVM Andromeda," "UVM Sentinel," and "UVM Nexus." Each category has three different drivers. The statistical function powering this indicator is the Z-score. The Z-score is an incredibly powerful tool that helps determine if the market is overvalued/expensive or undervalued/cheap, offering critical insights for traders."
Plotting:
The plotted value represents the average of all the drivers. In other words, it is the combined average of all 9 Z-scored indicators, providing a balanced and comprehensive market valuation.
What is Z-score? & Why does this system use it?
Z-score is an advanced statistical function used to measure how far a value deviates from the average in a data set. The formula for Z-score is: (x - h) / o, where x is the observed value, h is the average (mean) of the data set, and o is the standard deviation.
This system uses the Z-score because it helps determine whether the market is overvalued or undervalued based on historical data and how we apply the calculation. By measuring how far a value deviates from the average, the Z-score provides a clearer and more objective valuation of market conditions. In our case, a Z-score of -3 indicates an undervalued market, while a Z-score of 3 signals an overvalued market.
UVM Andromeda:
UVM stands for Universal Valuation Model, which is the core of this indicator. Andromeda, one of the most stunning galaxies in the universe, inspired by its name. We chose this name because a powerful indicator should not only be effective but also visually appealing.
You might be wondering what drives UVM Andromeda. The three key drivers are Price, RSI, and ROC. These indicators are pre-defined, while the "Indicator Settings" allow you to adjust the length of the Z-score calculation, refining how the model analyzes market conditions.
UVM Sentinel:
Sentinel, refers to a guard or watchman, someone or something that keeps watch and provides protection. In our case this name refers to a model that actively observes market conditions, acting as a vigilant tool that signals important shifts in valuation.
Wondering what drives UVM Sentinel? The three key drivers are BB%, CCI, and Crosby. While these indicators are simple on their own, applying our Z-score function elevates them to a whole new level, enhancing their ability to detect market conditions with greater accuracy.
UVM Nexus:
We chose the name Nexus simply because it sounds cool—there’s no deeper meaning behind it for us. However, the word itself does have a meaning; it refers to a connection or link between multiple things.
The three key drivers for UVM Nexus are the Sharpe, Sortino, and Omega ratios. These are all asset performance metrics, but by applying the Z-score, we transform them into powerful valuation indicators/drivers, giving you a deeper insight into market conditions.
Why do we use 9 different indicators instead of 1?
That's a great question, and the answer is quite simple. Think of it like this: if you have one super soldier, and they miss a shot, it’s game over. But if you have many soldiers, even if one misses, the others can step in and take the shot. The strength of using multiple indicators lies in their collective power – if one misses, the others still provide valuable insights, making the overall system more reliable.
Summary:
In our Universal Valuation indicator, you have the flexibility to customize it however you like using our inputs. The system is divided into three distinct categories, with each category containing three indicators. The value plotted on the chart is the average of all nine indicators. We apply the Z-score, an advanced statistical function, to each of these nine indicators. The final plotted average is the average of all the Z-scores, giving you a comprehensive and refined market valuation. This indicator can work on any timeframe & chart ticker.
VWAP Valuation Model | JeffreyTimmermansVWAP Valuation Model
This indicator provides a powerful tool for traders looking to assess the value of an asset based on the VWAP (Volume Weighted Average Price) and the z-score. The VWAP Valuation Model is designed to give insights into the overbought or oversold condition of an asset by comparing the current price to a volume-weighted average over a defined period.
Key Features:
VWAP Baseline: The indicator calculates a volume-weighted moving average of the price, which serves as the core reference line for price analysis.
Z-Score: The z-score is calculated to determine how far the current price deviates from the mean, adjusted for volatility. This score helps identify overbought and oversold conditions.
Smoothing Option: Optionally, the indicator can be smoothed for better visualization, with the smoothing length being adjustable.
Real-time Data: The indicator provides real-time insights for multiple assets, such as Bitcoin (BTCUSD), Ethereum (ETHUSD), and Solana (SOLUSD), and can take the broader market performance (like the total crypto market) into account.
Z-Score Table: The indicator features an interactive table that provides valuable information on the z-scores of selected assets, allowing traders to quickly get an overview of market conditions. The table is strategically positioned above the chart for maximum visibility without interfering with the chart data.
Usage:
Overbought/Oversold: A z-score above +1.5 indicates overvaluation (overbought), while a score below -1.5 indicates undervaluation (oversold). This indicator helps in making informed trading decisions.
VWAP Range: The indicator offers a visual representation of the VWAP range, crucial for understanding price trends and market dynamics.
This indicator is ideal for investors interested in fundamental analysis while also needing technical insights to identify buy and sell opportunities. It helps to objectively assess market valuation and make well-informed decisions.
Important Note: This indicators works only in mean-reverting markets, not trending periods.
-Jeffrey
Z-Score + Valuation BTC | JeffreyTimmermansBTC Valuation Indicator with Z-Score Analysis
The BTC Valuation Indicator is a sophisticated tool designed to offer traders and analysts a deeper understanding of Bitcoin’s market valuation, empowering them to make more informed decisions. By utilizing a combination of key moving averages and a logarithmic trendline, along with advanced statistical analysis through the Z-Score Indicator, this tool provides a comprehensive view of Bitcoin’s potential undervaluation or overvaluation.
Key Features:
200MA/P (200-Day Moving Average to Price Ratio)
This component compares Bitcoin’s current price to its 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), offering insights into the long-term trend. A positive value signals a potential undervaluation of Bitcoin, while a negative value may indicate overvaluation.
Use case: Identifying long-term price trends to forecast potential buying or selling opportunities.
50MA/P (50-Day Moving Average to Price Ratio)
This ratio focuses on the short-term dynamics of Bitcoin’s price, comparing it to its 50-day SMA. It helps traders detect bullish or bearish trends in the immediate future.
Use case: Spotting short-term market movements and adjusting strategies accordingly.
LTL/P (Logarithmic TrendLine to Price Ratio)
This ratio incorporates Bitcoin’s historical age, using a logarithmic trendline to measure price movements against long-term expectations. A divergence from this trendline can signal potential overvaluation or undervaluation, assisting in aligning trading decisions with broader market trends.
Use case: Evaluating the overall trajectory of Bitcoin’s value over time and predicting significant market shifts.
Z-Score Indicator Integration:
The BTC Valuation Indicator utilizes the Z-Score, a powerful statistical measure, to assess how far each of the aforementioned ratios deviates from the mean. Z-Scores help standardize these ratios, allowing traders to gauge the severity of under or overvaluation compared to historical averages.
What is a Z-Score?
A Z-score measures how far a data point is from the mean in terms of standard deviations. A Z-score of 0 indicates the value is exactly at the mean, while a positive or negative score shows how much the value deviates from it. A higher Z-score signals a more significant deviation, potentially pointing to a market anomaly, while a Z-score near 0 indicates normal conditions.
For instance:
A Z-score above +2 indicates that Bitcoin may be overvalued, with the likelihood of a market correction or reversion to the mean.
A Z-score below -2 signals possible undervaluation, suggesting an upward trend may be on the horizon.
Z-Score and Market Volatility
The Z-Score Indicator can be used in conjunction with volatility measures, such as the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), to forecast potential market volatility. Just as a Z-scored VIX above +2 suggests decreasing volatility and the possibility of an upward trend, a Z-scored VIX below -2 indicates increasing volatility and a potential downward trend. This parallel can be used to predict Bitcoin’s potential movements in times of market uncertainty.
How to Use:
The BTC Valuation Indicator, when paired with the Z-Score, provides a more refined statistical framework to analyze Bitcoin’s market conditions. This integration allows traders to assess the severity of potential trends and price anomalies, assisting in the identification of profitable entry and exit points.
Important Considerations:
No Guarantee of Market Predictions: While this indicator is a valuable tool for assessing market conditions, no indicator can guarantee future performance. Always consider multiple factors and use the indicator as part of a comprehensive strategy.
Market Dynamics:
As market conditions evolve, continuously refine your approach. Historical performance may not be indicative of future results, and traders should remain vigilant to changing trends and developments.
By combining the power of moving averages, logarithmic trend lines, and Z-scores, the BTC Valuation Indicator equips investors with a robust, data-driven approach to Bitcoin valuation, enhancing decision-making and enabling a more nuanced understanding of market dynamics.
-Jeffrey
Puell Multiple BTC | JeffreyTimmermansThe Puell Multiple is a metric that assesses the relationship between mining profitability and market cycles. It is calculated by comparing the daily value of newly issued coins (USD) to the 365-day moving average of daily coin issuance (USD).
This indicator works best on the 1D BTC Chart. When interpreting the Puell Multiple, it can generally be understood as follows:
High values indicate that miner profitability is significantly higher than the yearly average. This may lead to an increased incentive for miners to sell off their holdings, putting additional selling pressure on the market.
Low values suggest that miner profitability is lower than the yearly average. In this case, miners might experience financial strain, causing some to reduce their hash power by shutting down mining rigs. This, in turn, can reduce the number of coins being sold into the market, as remaining miners need to liquidate fewer coins to maintain operations, thereby decreasing the impact on the liquid supply.
The Puell Multiple is a metric used primarily in the cryptocurrency space, specifically for Bitcoin, to assess whether Bitcoin is overvalued or undervalued in relation to its mining rewards. It helps to gauge the profitability of miners and, by extension, to assess market conditions.
Use:
This Puell Multiple is invented for Long-Term, Trend Following Systems.
The Puell Multiple trend can be visualized through the color of the bars, which represents the direction of the trend, while the background indicates the strength of that trend.
Bar Color: The color of the bars typically changes to reflect whether the trend is bullish or bearish. For example, green bars may indicate a strong bullish trend, while red bars signal a bearish or declining trend. The color coding helps to quickly interpret the market's overall movement in relation to mining profitability.
Background Color: The background of the chart is used to reflect the strength of the trend. A darker or more intense background may signify a stronger trend, indicating that the market conditions are more pronounced, while a lighter background can suggest a weaker or more uncertain trend, showing less certainty in the market’s direction.
Together, the combination of bar color and background provides a clearer picture of both the trend's direction and its strength, making it easier to assess potential market behavior based on miner profitability and market cycles.
Puell Multiple and Moving Average: They can be used as an extra tool to confirm the bullish or bearish trend. When the Puell Multiple is above the Moving Average, this will suggest and confirm that the trend is bullish.
How you score this for your own systems is up to you.
-Jeffrey
Puell Multiple BTC | JeffreyTimmermansThe Puell Multiple is a metric that assesses the relationship between mining profitability and market cycles. It is calculated by comparing the daily value of newly issued coins (USD) to the 365-day moving average of daily coin issuance (USD).
This indicator works best on the 1D BTC Chart. When interpreting the Puell Multiple, it can generally be understood as follows:
High values indicate that miner profitability is significantly higher than the yearly average. This may lead to an increased incentive for miners to sell off their holdings, putting additional selling pressure on the market.
Low values suggest that miner profitability is lower than the yearly average. In this case, miners might experience financial strain, causing some to reduce their hash power by shutting down mining rigs. This, in turn, can reduce the number of coins being sold into the market, as remaining miners need to liquidate fewer coins to maintain operations, thereby decreasing the impact on the liquid supply.
The Puell Multiple is a metric used primarily in the cryptocurrency space, specifically for Bitcoin, to assess whether Bitcoin is overvalued or undervalued in relation to its mining rewards. It helps to gauge the profitability of miners and, by extension, to assess market conditions.
Use:
This Puell Multiple is invented for Long-Term, Trend Following Systems.
The Puell Multiple trend can be visualized through the color of the bars, which represents the direction of the trend, while the background indicates the strength of that trend.
Bar Color: The color of the bars typically changes to reflect whether the trend is bullish or bearish. For example, green bars may indicate a strong bullish trend, while red bars signal a bearish or declining trend. The color coding helps to quickly interpret the market's overall movement in relation to mining profitability.
Background Color: The background of the chart is used to reflect the strength of the trend. A darker or more intense background may signify a stronger trend, indicating that the market conditions are more pronounced, while a lighter background can suggest a weaker or more uncertain trend, showing less certainty in the market’s direction.
Together, the combination of bar color and background provides a clearer picture of both the trend's direction and its strength, making it easier to assess potential market behavior based on miner profitability and market cycles.
Puell Multiple and Moving Average: They can be used as an extra tool to confirm the bullish or bearish trend. When the Puell Multiple is above the Moving Average, this will suggest and confirm that the trend is bullish.
How you score this for your own systems is up to you.
-Jeffrey
Puell Multiple BTC | JeffreyTimmermansThe Puell Multiple is a metric that assesses the relationship between mining profitability and market cycles. It is calculated by comparing the daily value of newly issued coins (USD) to the 365-day moving average of daily coin issuance (USD).
This indicator works best on the 1D BTC Chart. When interpreting the Puell Multiple, it can generally be understood as follows:
High values indicate that miner profitability is significantly higher than the yearly average. This may lead to an increased incentive for miners to sell off their holdings, putting additional selling pressure on the market.
Low values suggest that miner profitability is lower than the yearly average. In this case, miners might experience financial strain, causing some to reduce their hash power by shutting down mining rigs. This, in turn, can reduce the number of coins being sold into the market, as remaining miners need to liquidate fewer coins to maintain operations, thereby decreasing the impact on the liquid supply.
The Puell Multiple is a metric used primarily in the cryptocurrency space, specifically for Bitcoin, to assess whether Bitcoin is overvalued or undervalued in relation to its mining rewards. It helps to gauge the profitability of miners and, by extension, to assess market conditions.
Use:
This Puell Multiple is invented for Long-Term, Trend Following Systems.
The Puell Multiple trend can be visualized through the color of the bars, which represents the direction of the trend, while the background indicates the strength of that trend.
Bar Color: The color of the bars typically changes to reflect whether the trend is bullish or bearish. For example, green bars may indicate a strong bullish trend, while red bars signal a bearish or declining trend. The color coding helps to quickly interpret the market's overall movement in relation to mining profitability.
Background Color: The background of the chart is used to reflect the strength of the trend. A darker or more intense background may signify a stronger trend, indicating that the market conditions are more pronounced, while a lighter background can suggest a weaker or more uncertain trend, showing less certainty in the market’s direction.
Together, the combination of bar color and background provides a clearer picture of both the trend's direction and its strength, making it easier to assess potential market behavior based on miner profitability and market cycles.
Puell Multiple and Moving Average: They can be used as an extra tool to confirm the bullish or bearish trend. When the Puell Multiple is above the Moving Average, this will suggest and confirm that the trend is bullish.
How you score this for your own systems is up to you.
-Jeffrey
Asset Valuation ToolAsset Valuation Tool
This script provides a multi-dimensional perspective on asset valuation by comparing its price movements against three major benchmarks: bond prices, gold prices, and the US Dollar Index (DXY). It is designed to help traders identify overbought and oversold conditions in the context of these relationships.
How It Works
Valuation Ratios: The script calculates the ratio of the primary asset's price to that of bonds, gold, and DXY.
RSI-Based Analysis: The script uses a modified RSI (Relative Strength Index) to assess the momentum of these ratios over a user-defined lookback period.
Rescaling & Normalization: To provide a unified view, the valuation metrics are rescaled to a fixed range (-100 to 100), where extreme values can indicate overbought or oversold conditions.
Features:
Customizable Inputs:
Lookback period (default: 10).
Symbols for bonds, gold, and DXY, allowing flexibility for various trading instruments.
Visual Indicators:
Dynamic plots for each valuation metric (Bond, Gold, DXY).
Horizontal lines at key levels (+75, 0, -75) for easy identification of overbought/oversold zones.
Cross-Asset Insights: Gain insights into how the asset behaves relative to key market indicators.
How to Use:
Add the script to your chart and configure the asset symbols under the settings menu.
Observe the plotted lines for each valuation metric:
Values above +75 may indicate overbought conditions relative to a benchmark.
Values below -75 may indicate oversold conditions.
Use in combination with other technical analysis tools for a comprehensive market view.
Note: This script is for educational purposes and should not be considered financial advice. Always perform additional research before making trading decisions.
Universal Valuation System Overview 🔍
The Universal Valuation System (UVS) is an advanced valuation-focused indicator that provides insights into whether an asset is statistically overvalued or undervalued, helping traders understand where an asset sits within its historical value range. Unlike trend indicators, UVS emphasizes value analysis through a unique combination of performance ratios and statistical metrics, synthesizing this data into an overall Z-score. This score reflects the asset’s position within a typical normal distribution curve, allowing traders to make data-driven decisions based on historical valuation patterns.
Normal Distribution: A Statistical Foundation for Valuation 📊
The UVS leverages the normal distribution model as its core statistical framework. In a normal distribution, values tend to cluster around a central mean, with predictable probabilities for deviation. In financial markets, this means that most price or valuation levels hover around an average range, while extreme highs or lows are less frequent.
Under normal distribution:
68% of values lie within one standard deviation of the mean.
95% of values lie within two standard deviations.
99.7% of values lie within three standard deviations.
Using Z-scores, UVS calculates where current valuation metrics fall relative to this distribution, identifying overvalued (above-average) or undervalued (below-average) zones. This helps traders interpret an asset’s relative value, showing whether it is more likely to revert toward its mean or is experiencing an exceptional deviation.
Key Components and Ratios in UVS 🔀
UVS includes a range of valuation metrics that work together to determine the Z-score:
Sharpe Ratio: Measures return relative to risk, offering insight into the quality of returns.
Sortino Ratio: Focuses on downside deviation, helping gauge negative returns’ impact.
Omega Ratio: Assesses the likelihood of gains versus losses, providing a risk-adjusted performance measure.
Crosby Ratio: Examines volatility patterns, adding dimension to the valuation signal.
VWAP (Volume-Weighted Average Price) Z-Score: Assesses price relative to volume, highlighting valuation when volume supports price movements.
Price ROC Z-Score: Uses the rate of price change to give a volatility-adjusted price movement signal.
By averaging these ratios, UVS forms a composite Z-score representing an overall valuation signal. This Z-score directly reflects the asset’s position within its historical distribution, indicating whether it’s in a typical, overbought, or oversold range.
DCA (Dollar-Cost Averaging) Application with UVS 💵
The UVS provides powerful insights for those using Dollar-Cost Averaging (DCA) by signaling periods when an asset may be overvalued or undervalued relative to its historical distribution. This model-based approach helps traders strategically adjust their DCA timing:
Overvalued (Overbought) Zones:
When the Z-score indicates that an asset is in an overbought zone (typically above +2 standard deviations), DCA buyers may choose to reduce purchases or pause, as this zone suggests the asset is currently at a premium relative to its historical norms.
Undervalued (Oversold) Zones:
In undervalued regions (typically below -2 standard deviations), the UVS suggests a favorable accumulation point for DCA. These periods allow traders to buy at below-average valuations, optimizing their cost basis over time.
Valuation Zone Display and Accessibility 🌈
UVS includes several user-friendly display options, helping traders interpret its signals easily:
Composite Zone Highlighting: Displays overbought and oversold zones with color gradients, clearly visualizing statistical extremes.
Ratio Breakdown: Allows users to view individual Z-scores for each component, understanding the specific contributions to the overall valuation signal.
Color Blindness Mode: Offers multiple color settings to ensure clear interpretation across different visual needs.
Summary: Structured Value Analysis for Informed DCA Decisions
UVS is designed to be a reliable tool for traders looking to anchor their DCA and valuation-based strategies in statistical reality. By identifying valuation zones within a normal distribution framework, UVS enables a disciplined approach to asset accumulation based on relative value rather than price trends.
Important Note: UVS does not predict future performance. It provides a statistical view of historical valuation, which should be supplemented with additional analysis and risk management practices. Past patterns do not guarantee future results.
Sharpe Ratio Z-ScoreThis indicator calculates the Sharpe Ratio and its Z-Score , which are used to evaluate the risk-adjusted return of an asset over a given period. The Sharpe Ratio is computed using the average return and the standard deviation of returns, while the Z-Score standardizes this ratio to assess how far the current Sharpe Ratio deviates from its historical average.
The Sharpe Ratio is a measure of how much return an investment has generated relative to the risk it has taken. In the context of this script, the risk-free rate is assumed to be 0, but in real applications, it would typically be the return on a safe investment, like a Treasury bond. A higher Sharpe Ratio indicates that the investment's returns are higher compared to its risk, making it a more favorable investment. Conversely, a lower Sharpe Ratio suggests that the investment may not be worth the risk.
Calculation:
Daily Returns Calculation: The script calculates the daily return of the asset. This measures the percentage change in the asset’s closing price from one period to the next.
Sharpe Ratio Calculation: The Sharpe Ratio is calculated by taking the average daily return and dividing it by the standard deviation of the returns, then multiplying by the square root of the period length.
Usage:
Traders and Investors can use the Sharpe Ratio to evaluate how well the asset is compensating for risk. A high Sharpe Ratio indicates a high return per unit of risk, whereas a low or negative Sharpe Ratio suggests poor risk-adjusted returns. In overbought times, an asset would have high/positive returns per unit of risk. In oversold times, an asset would have low/negative returns per unit of risk.
The Z-Score provides a way to compare the current Sharpe Ratio to its historical distribution, offering a more standardized view of how extreme or typical the current ratio is.
Positive Z-score: Indicates that the asset's return is significantly lower than its risk, suggesting potential oversold conditions.
Negative Z-score: Indicates that the asset's return is significantly higher than its risk, suggesting potential overbought conditions.
Red Zone (-3 to -2): Strong overbought conditions.
Green Zone (2 to 3): Strong oversold conditions.
Sharpe Ratio Limitations:
While the Sharpe Ratio is widely used to evaluate risk-adjusted returns, it has its limitations.
Fat Tails: It assumes that returns are normally distributed and does not account for extreme events or "fat tails" in the return distribution. This can be problematic for assets like cryptocurrencies, which may experience large, sudden price swings that skew the return distribution.
Single Risk Factor: The Sharpe Ratio only considers standard deviation (total volatility) as a measure of risk, ignoring other types of risks like skewness or kurtosis, which may also impact an asset’s performance.
Time Frame Sensitivity: The accuracy of the Sharpe Ratio and its Z-Score is heavily influenced by the time frame chosen for the calculation. A longer period may smooth out short-term fluctuations, while a shorter period might be more sensitive to recent volatility.
Overbought and Oversold Zones: The script marks overbought and oversold conditions based on the Z-Score, but this is not a guarantee of market reversal. It’s important to combine this tool with other technical indicators and fundamental analysis for a more comprehensive market evaluation.
Volatility: The Sharpe Ratio and Z-Score depend on the volatility (standard deviation) of the asset’s returns. For highly volatile assets, such as cryptocurrencies, the Sharpe Ratio may not fully capture the true risk or may be misleading if the volatility is transient.
Doesn't Account for Downside Risk: The Sharpe Ratio treats upside and downside volatility equally, which may not reflect how investors perceive risk. Some investors may be more concerned with downside risk, which the Sharpe Ratio does not distinguish from upside fluctuations.
Important Considerations:
The Sharpe Ratio should not be used in isolation. While it provides valuable insights into risk-adjusted returns, it is important to combine it with other performance and risk indicators to form a more comprehensive market evaluation. Relying solely on the Sharpe Ratio may lead to misleading conclusions, particularly in volatile or non-normally distributed markets.
When integrated into a broader investment strategy, the Sharpe Ratio can help traders and investors better assess the risk-return profile of an asset, identifying periods of potential overperformance or underperformance. However, it should be used alongside other tools to ensure more informed decision-making, especially in highly fluctuating markets.
Universal Trend and Valuation System [QuantAlgo]Universal Trend and Valuation System 📊🧬
The Universal Trend and Valuation System by QuantAlgo is an advanced indicator designed to assess asset valuation and trends across various timeframes and asset classes. This system integrates multiple advanced statistical indicators and techniques with Z-score calculations to help traders and investors identify overbought/sell and oversold/buy signals. By evaluating valuation and trend strength together, this tool empowers users to make data-driven decisions, whether they aim to follow trends, accumulate long-term positions, or identify turning points in mean-reverting markets.
💫 Conceptual Foundation and Innovation
The Universal Trend and Valuation System by QuantAlgo provides a unique framework for assessing market valuation and trend dynamics through a blend of Z-score analysis and trend-following algorithm. Unlike traditional indicators that only reflect price direction, this system incorporates multi-layered data to reveal the relative value of an asset, helping users determine whether it’s overvalued, undervalued, or approaching a trend reversal. By combining high quality trend-following tools, such as Dynamic Score Supertrend, DEMA RSI, and EWMA, it evaluates trend stability and momentum quality, while Z-scores of performance ratios like Sharpe, Sortino, and Omega standardize deviations from historical trends, enabling traders and investors to spot extreme conditions. This dual approach allows users to better identify accumulation (undervaluation) and distribution (overvaluation) phases, enhancing strategies like Dollar Cost Averaging (DCA) and overall timing for entries and exits.
📊 Technical Composition and Calculation
The Universal Trend-Following Valuation System is composed of several trend-following and valuation indicators that create a dynamic dual scoring model:
Risk-Adjusted Ratios (Sharpe, Sortino, Omega): These ratios assess trend quality by analyzing an asset’s risk-adjusted performance. Sharpe and Sortino provide insight into trend consistency and risk/reward, while Omega evaluates profitability potential, helping traders and investors assess how favorable a trend or an asset is relative to its associated risk.
Dynamic Z-Scores: Z-scores are applied to various metrics like Price, RSI, and RoC, helping to identify statistical deviations from the mean, which indicate potential extremes in valuation. By combining these Z-scores, the system produces a cumulative score that highlights when an asset may be overbought or oversold.
Aggregated Trend-Following Indicators: The model consolidates multiple high quality indicators to highlight probable trend shifts. This helps confirm the direction and strength of market moves, allowing users to spot reversals or entry points with greater clarity.
📈 Key Indicators and Features
The Universal Trend and Valuation System combines various technical and statistical tools to deliver a well-rounded analysis of market trends and valuation:
The indicator utilizes trend-following indicators like RSI with DEMA smoothing and Dynamic Score Supertrend to minimize market noise, providing clearer and more stable trend signals. Sharpe, Sortino, and Omega ratios are calculated to assess risk-adjusted performance and volatility, adding a layer of analysis for evaluating trend quality. Z-scores are applied to these ratios, as well as Price and Rate of Change (RoC), to detect deviations from historical trends, highlighting extreme valuation levels.
The system also incorporates multi-layered visualization with gradient color coding to signal valuation states across different market conditions. These adaptive visual cues, combined with threshold-based alerts for overbought and oversold zones, help traders and investors track probable trend reversals or continuations and identify accumulation or distribution zones, adding reliability to both trend-following and mean-reversion strategies.
⚡️ Practical Applications and Examples
✅ Add the Indicator: Add the Universal Trend-Following Valuation System to your favourites and to your chart.
👀 Monitor Trend Shifts and Valuation Levels: Watch the average Z score, trend probability state and gradient colors to identify overbought and oversold conditions. During undervaluation, consider using a DCA strategy to gradually accumulate positions (buy), while overvaluation may signal distribution or profit-taking phases (sell).
🔔 Set Alerts: Configure alerts for significant trend or valuation changes, ensuring you can act on market movements promptly, even when you’re not actively monitoring the charts.
🌟 Summary and Usage Tips
The Universal Trend and Valuation System by QuantAlgo is a highly adaptable tool, designed to support both trend-following and valuation analysis across different market environments. By combining valuation metrics with high quality trend-following indicators, it helps traders and investors identify the relative value of an asset based on historical norms, providing more reliable overbought/sell and oversold/buy signals. The tool’s flexibility across asset types and timeframes makes it ideal for both short-term trading and long-term investment strategies like DCA, allowing users to capture meaningful trends while minimizing noise.
Revenue GridDescription:
The Revenue Grid indicator helps traders and investors visualize a stock’s valuation by plotting horizontal lines based on its price-to-sales (P/S) ratio. This tool displays how the stock price compares to multiples of its total revenue per share, giving a clear perspective on valuation benchmarks.
Fundamental Concept:
The price-to-sales ratio compares a company’s stock price to its revenue per share. It’s used to evaluate whether a stock is overvalued or undervalued based on its revenue.
This indicator offers a unique way to view this ratio by applying Fibonacci multiples to the revenue per share. It plots lines at these multiples to show how the stock price measures up against different valuation levels.
How It Works:
Data Inputs:
Total Revenue (TR): The company’s revenue over the past twelve months.
Total Shares Outstanding (TSO): The total number of shares in circulation.
Calculation:
Calculates the revenue per share (TR/TSO).
Plots lines at fixed Fibonacci multiples (e.g., 1x, 2x, 3x, 5x, 8x, 13x) of the revenue per share value.
How to Use:
1. Add the "Revenue Grid" indicator to your chart by searching for it in the indicator library and applying it.
2. Observe the lines plotted on the chart. If these lines are trending upwards, it indicates that the revenue is increasing.
3. Analyze how historical prices trend relative to these lines. Look for periods where the stock price supports around specific multiples, you can easily get a sense of overvaluation or undervaluation in certain periods.
Use this information to guide further analysis and investment decisions.
Benefits:
1. Clear Valuation View: Easily see how the company’s revenue translates into stock price levels.
2. Investment Insight: Identify if the stock price is lagging behind revenue growth, which might signal a buying opportunity.
3. Historical Context: Understand how the market has historically valued the company and assess the current valuation.
Do let me know your feedbacks in comments. Happy Investing :)
Stock Value RainbowStock Valuation based on Book Value, Dividends, Cashflow, Earnings and Estimates and Money Multiplier
There are many ways to measure stock valuations: some methods are using book value, some are using dividends, some are using cashflow, some are using earnings and some using estimates data. Most of these valuation methods are based on multiplier effect which measure how many times the stock price could expand from their valuation base. This indicator attempts to unify all these measurements using just simple addition of all measurements such as: book value per share, dividend per share, cashflow per share, earning per share, and estimates of earning per share and then using multiplier effect to create beautiful rainbow to see how far the stock has growing up above or below their valuation base. The higher the stock price on rainbow spectrum means it is more expensive and the lower in the rainbow spectrum means it is cheaper. Here is the basic formula explanation:
SV = (BVPS + DPS + CFPS + EPS + EST) * MM
BVPS = Book Value Per Share (Asset - Liability)
DPS = Dividends Per Share
CFPS = Free Cash Flow Per Share
EPS = Earnings Per Share
EST = Estimates of EPS
MM = Money Multiplier (1x, 2x, ... ,10x)
- The gray line represents the stock value SV
- The rainbow above the gray line represents the multiplication factors from 1x, 2x, ..., 10x
- The rainbow below the gray line represents the division factors from 0.8x, 0.6x, ..., 0.2x
Check other script to value stock and index:
- Stock Value Rainbow: script to value stock based on book value, dividend, cash flow, earning and estimates.
- Index Value Rainbow: script to value index based on fed balance sheet and base money supply
- Gold Value Rainbow: script to value gold based on global money supply
- Stock Value US: script to check US stock value
- Stock Value EU: script to check EU stock value
- Stock Value JP: script to check JP stock value
- Stock Value CN: script to check CN stock value
Market Cap / Revenue RatioA variation of the P/S ratio, this script takes the future estimated revenue of the current stock versus it's Market Cap. It then compares the aforementioned Market Cap:Revenue ratio against a market bellwether's corresponding ratio (MSFT by default) to determine the following:
- Light green when the ratio is extremely low (Stock is very undervalued)
- Green when the ratio is low (Stock's multiple is lower by 20-50%)
- Blue when the ratio is close to the benchmark (Stock is fairly valued to benchmark multiple)
- Red when the ratio is high (Stock's mulitple is higher by 50% or more)
- Dark red when the ratio is extremely high (Stock is very overvalued)
CONFIGURABLE
- Full Table: Show the entire calculation table
- Minimalist: Go minimal and show only the ratio and color code
- Show Benchmark Multiple: Show the multiple ratio calculated between the current stock and the benchmark stock (MSFT by default)
NOTES
- When calculating the Market Cap, TradingView sometimes under-reports the number of shares and thus skews the Market Cap too low. This seems to happen for stocks with multiple share classes like GOOGL so be mindful that the data can be wrong for these kinds of stocks. You can check on this by going into the Indicator's Settings and select Show Full Table which will show the number of shares outstanding reported by TradingView.
- For certain stocks such as foreign ADRs, there won't be a future revenue estimate so the script will automatically use the Total Revenue for the most recent Quarter in these cases
Global Financial IndexIntroducing the "Global Financial Index" indicator on TradingView, a meticulously crafted tool derived from extensive research aimed at providing the most comprehensive assessment of a company's financial health, profitability, and valuation. Developed with the discerning trader and investor in mind, this indicator amalgamates a diverse array of financial metrics, meticulously weighted and balanced to yield optimal results.
Financial Strength:
Financial strength is a cornerstone of a company's stability and resilience in the face of economic challenges. It encompasses various metrics that gauge the company's ability to meet its financial obligations, manage its debt, and generate sustainable profits. In our Global Financial Index indicator, the evaluation of financial strength is meticulously crafted to provide investors with a comprehensive understanding of a company's fiscal robustness. Let's delve into the key components and the rationale behind their inclusion:
1. Current Ratio:
The Current Ratio serves as a vital indicator of a company's liquidity position by comparing its current assets to its current liabilities.
A ratio greater than 1 indicates that the company possesses more short-term assets than liabilities, suggesting a healthy liquidity position and the ability to meet short-term obligations promptly.
By including the Current Ratio in our evaluation, we emphasize the importance of liquidity management in sustaining business operations and weathering financial storms.
2. Debt to Equity Ratio:
The Debt to Equity Ratio measures the proportion of a company's debt relative to its equity, reflecting its reliance on debt financing versus equity financing.
A higher ratio signifies higher financial risk due to increased debt burden, potentially leading to liquidity constraints and solvency issues.
Incorporating the Debt to Equity Ratio underscores the significance of balancing debt levels to maintain financial stability and mitigate risk exposure.
3. Interest Coverage Ratio:
The Interest Coverage Ratio assesses a company's ability to service its interest payments with its operating income.
A higher ratio indicates a healthier financial position, as it implies that the company generates sufficient earnings to cover its interest expenses comfortably.
By evaluating the Interest Coverage Ratio, we gauge the company's capacity to manage its debt obligations without compromising its profitability or sustainability.
4. Altman Z-Score:
The Altman Z-Score, developed by Edward Altman, is a composite metric that predicts the likelihood of a company facing financial distress or bankruptcy within a specific timeframe.
It considers multiple financial ratios, including liquidity, profitability, leverage, and solvency, to provide a comprehensive assessment of a company's financial health.
The Altman Z-Score categorizes companies into distinct risk groups, allowing investors to identify potential warning signs and make informed decisions regarding investment or credit exposure.
By integrating the Altman Z-Score, we offer a nuanced perspective on a company's financial viability and resilience in turbulent market conditions.
Profitability Rank:
Profitability rank is a crucial aspect of investment analysis that evaluates a company's ability to generate profits relative to its peers and industry benchmarks. It involves assessing various profitability metrics to gauge the efficiency and effectiveness of a company's operations and management. In our Global Financial Index indicator, the profitability rank segment is meticulously designed to provide investors with a comprehensive understanding of a company's profitability dynamics. Let's delve into the key components and rationale behind their inclusion:
1. Return on Equity (ROE):
Return on Equity measures a company's net income generated relative to its shareholders' equity.
A higher ROE indicates that a company is generating more profits with its shareholders' investment, reflecting efficient capital utilization and strong profitability.
By incorporating ROE, we assess management's ability to generate returns for shareholders and evaluate the overall profitability of the company's operations.
2. Gross Profit Margin:
Gross Profit Margin represents the percentage of revenue retained by a company after accounting for the cost of goods sold (COGS).
A higher gross profit margin indicates that a company is effectively managing its production costs and pricing strategies, leading to greater profitability.
By analyzing gross profit margin, we evaluate a company's pricing power, cost efficiency, and competitive positioning within its industry.
3. Operating Profit Margin:
Operating Profit Margin measures the percentage of revenue that remains after deducting operating expenses, such as salaries, rent, and utilities.
A higher operating profit margin signifies that a company is efficiently managing its operating costs and generating more profit from its core business activities.
By considering operating profit margin, we assess the underlying profitability of a company's operations and its ability to generate sustainable earnings.
4. Net Profit Margin:
Net Profit Margin measures the percentage of revenue that remains as net income after deducting all expenses, including taxes and interest.
A higher net profit margin indicates that a company is effectively managing its expenses and generating greater bottom-line profitability.
By analyzing net profit margin, we evaluate the overall profitability and financial health of a company, taking into account all expenses and income streams.
Valuation Rank:
Valuation rank is a fundamental aspect of investment analysis that assesses the attractiveness of a company's stock price relative to its intrinsic value. It involves evaluating various valuation metrics to determine whether a stock is undervalued, overvalued, or fairly valued compared to its peers and the broader market. In our Global Financial Index indicator, the valuation rank segment is meticulously designed to provide investors with a comprehensive perspective on a company's valuation dynamics. Let's explore the key components and rationale behind their inclusion:
1. Price-to-Earnings (P/E) Ratio:
The Price-to-Earnings ratio is a widely used valuation metric that compares a company's current stock price to its earnings per share (EPS).
A lower P/E ratio may indicate that the stock is undervalued relative to its earnings potential, while a higher ratio may suggest overvaluation.
By incorporating the P/E ratio, we offer insight into market sentiment and investor expectations regarding a company's future earnings growth prospects.
2. Price-to-Book (P/B) Ratio:
The Price-to-Book ratio evaluates a company's market value relative to its book value, which represents its net asset value per share.
A P/B ratio below 1 may indicate that the stock is trading at a discount to its book value, potentially signaling an undervalued opportunity.
Conversely, a P/B ratio above 1 may suggest overvaluation, as investors are paying a premium for the company's assets.
By considering the P/B ratio, we assess the market's perception of a company's tangible asset value and its implications for investment attractiveness.
3. Dividend Yield:
Dividend Yield measures the annual dividend income received from owning a stock relative to its current market price.
A higher dividend yield may indicate that the stock is undervalued or that the company is returning a significant portion of its profits to shareholders.
Conversely, a lower dividend yield may signal overvaluation or a company's focus on reinvesting profits for growth rather than distributing them as dividends.
By analyzing dividend yield, we offer insights into a company's capital allocation strategy and its implications for shareholder returns and valuation.
4. Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis:
Discounted Cash Flow analysis estimates the present value of a company's future cash flows, taking into account the time value of money.
By discounting projected cash flows back to their present value using an appropriate discount rate, DCF analysis provides a fair value estimate for the company's stock.
Comparing the calculated fair value to the current market price allows investors to assess whether the stock is undervalued, overvalued, or fairly valued.
By integrating DCF analysis, we offer a rigorous framework for valuing stocks based on their underlying cash flow generation potential.
Earnings Transparency:
Mitigating the risk of fraudulent financial reporting is crucial for investors. The indicator incorporates the Beneish M-Score, a robust model designed to detect earnings manipulation or financial irregularities. By evaluating various financial ratios and metrics, this component provides valuable insights into the integrity and transparency of a company's financial statements, aiding investors in mitigating potential risks.
Overall Score:
The pinnacle of the "Global Financial Index" is the Overall Score, a comprehensive amalgamation of financial strength, profitability, valuation, and manipulation risk, further enhanced by the inclusion of the Piotroski F-Score. This holistic score offers investors a succinct assessment of a company's overall health and investment potential, facilitating informed decision-making.
The weighting and balancing of each metric within the indicator have been meticulously calibrated to ensure accuracy and reliability. By amalgamating these diverse metrics, the "Global Financial Index" empowers traders and investors with a powerful tool for evaluating investment opportunities with confidence and precision.
This indicator is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice, investment advice, or any other type of advice. The information provided by this indicator should not be relied upon for making investment decisions. Trading and investing in financial markets involves risk, and you should carefully consider your financial situation and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. The creator of this indicator makes no representations or warranties of any kind, express or implied, about the completeness, accuracy, reliability, suitability, or availability with respect to the indicator or the information contained herein. Any reliance you place on such information is therefore strictly at your own risk. By using this indicator, you agree to assume full responsibility for any and all gains and losses, financial, emotional, or otherwise, experienced, suffered, or incurred by you.
Fair ValueThis indicator is designed to provide a valuation perspective based on a specified length and deviations from a base value. This code calculates fair value levels relative to a chosen source (typically closing prices) using simple moving averages (SMA) or exponential moving averages (EMA). Please note that this is purely educational and should not be considered financial advice.
Key Features:
1. Valuation Calculation: The indicator computes a base value using either SMA or EMA, providing a reference point for fair value.
2. Deviation Levels: Additional levels of valuation are defined as deviations from the base value, indicating potential overvalued or undervalued conditions.
3. Currency-Specific Display: It displays valuation levels in different currency symbols based on the asset's trading currency.
4. Visual Representation: The indicator plots fair value lines and shades areas to highlight potential deviations.
5. Line Projection: A projection line shows potential future movement based on the calculated slope. This feature forecasts future price movement using a linear regression line's slope, dynamically projecting the trend forward. It provides traders with valuable insight into potential future price behavior. The implementation involves complex mathematical computations to determine the slope and iterative drawing of projected segments.
Educational Purpose: This indicator is for educational purposes only. It does not guarantee accuracy or suitability for trading decisions.
Please use caution and consider consulting a financial professional before making any investment decisions based on this indicator. Keep in mind that market conditions can change rapidly, and historical performance may not predict future results.
BTC Valuation
The BTC Valuation indicator
is a powerful tool designed to assist traders and analysts in evaluating the current state of Bitcoin's market valuation. By leveraging key moving averages and a logarithmic trendline, this indicator offers valuable insights into potential buying or selling opportunities based on historical price value.
Key Features:
200MA/P (200-day Moving Average to Price Ratio):
Provides a perspective on Bitcoin's long-term trend by comparing the current price to its 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA).
A positive value suggests potential undervaluation, while a negative value may indicate overvaluation.
50MA/P (50-day Moving Average to Price Ratio):
Focuses on short-term trends, offering insights into the relationship between Bitcoin's current price and its 50-day SMA.
Helps traders identify potential bullish or bearish trends in the near term.
LTL/P (Logarithmic TrendLine to Price Ratio):
Incorporates a logarithmic trendline, considering Bitcoin's historical age in days.
Assists in evaluating whether the current price aligns with the long-term logarithmic trend, signaling potential overvaluation or undervaluation.
How to Use:
Z Score Indicator Integration:
The BTC Valuation indicator leverages the Z Score Indicator to score the ratios in a statistical way.
Statistical scoring provides a standardized measure of how far each ratio deviates from the mean, aiding in a more nuanced and objective evaluation.
Z Score Indicator
This BTC Valuation indicator provides a comprehensive view of Bitcoin's valuation dynamics, allowing traders to make informed decisions.
While indicators like BTC Valuation provide valuable insights, it's crucial to remember that no indicator guarantees market predictions.
Traders should use indicators as part of a comprehensive strategy and consider multiple factors before making trading decisions.
Historical performance is not indicative of future results. Exercise caution and continually refine your approach based on market dynamics.
Neural Network Synthesis: Trend and Valuation [QuantraSystems]Neural Network Synthesis - Trend and Valuation
Introduction
The Neural Network Synthesis (𝓝𝓝𝒮𝔂𝓷𝓽𝓱) indicator is an innovative technical analysis tool which leverages neural network concepts to synthesize market trend and valuation insights.
This indicator uses a bespoke neural network model to process various technical indicator inputs, providing an improved view of market momentum and perceived value.
Legend
The main visual component of the 𝓝𝓝𝒮𝔂𝓷𝓽𝓱 indicator is the Neural Synthesis Line , which dynamically oscillates within the valuation chart, categorizing market conditions as both under or overvalued and trending up or down.
The synthesis line coloring can be set to trend analysis or valuation modes , which can be reflected in the bar coloring.
The sine wave valuation chart oscillates around a central, volatility normalized ‘fair value’ line, visually conveying the natural rhythm and cyclical nature of asset markets.
The positioning of the sine wave in relation to the central line can help traders to visualize transitions from one market phase to another - such as from an undervalued phase to fair value or an overvalued phase.
Case Study 1
The asset in question experiences a sharp, inefficient move upwards. Such movements suggest an overextension of price, and mean reversion is typically expected.
Here, a short position was initiated, but only after the Neural Synthesis line confirmed a negative trend - to mitigate the risk of shorting into a continuing uptrend.
Two take-profit levels were set:
The midline or ‘fair value’ line.
The lower boundary of the 𝓝𝓝𝒮𝔂𝓷𝓽𝓱 indicators valuation chart.
Although mean-reversion trades are typically closed when price returns to the mean, under circumstances of extreme overextension price often overcorrects from an overbought condition to an oversold condition.
Case Study 2
In the above study, the 𝓝𝓝𝒮𝔂𝓷𝓽𝓱 indicator is applied to the 1 Week Bitcoin chart in order to inform long term investment decisions.
Accumulation Zones - Investors can choose to dollar cost average (DCA) into long term positions when the 𝓝𝓝𝒮𝔂𝓷𝓽𝓱 indicates undervaluation
Distribution Zones - Conversely, when overvalued conditions are indicated, investors are able to incrementally sell holdings expecting the market peak to form around the distribution phase.
Note - It is prudent to pay close attention to any change in trend conditions when the market is in an accumulation/distribution phase, as this can increase the likelihood of a full-cycle market peak forming.
In summary, the 𝓝𝓝𝒮𝔂𝓷𝓽𝓱 indicator is also an effective tool for long term investing, especially for assets like Bitcoin which exhibit prolonged bull and bear cycles.
Special Note
It is prudent to note that because markets often undergo phases of extreme speculation, an asset's price can remain over or undervalued for long periods of time, defying mean-reversion expectations. In these scenarios it is important to use other forms of analysis in confluence, such as the trending component of the 𝓝𝓝𝒮𝔂𝓷𝓽𝓱 indicator to help inform trading decisions.
A special feature of Quantra’s indicators is that they are probabilistically built - therefore they work well as confluence and can easily be stacked to increase signal accuracy.
Example Settings
As used above.
Swing Trading
Smooth Length = 150
Timeframe = 12h
Long Term Investing
Smooth Length = 30
Timeframe = 1W
Methodology
The 𝓝𝓝𝒮𝔂𝓷𝓽𝓱 indicator draws upon the foundational principles of Neural Networks, particularly the concept of using a network of ‘neurons’ (in this case, various technical indicators). It uses their outputs as features, preprocesses this input data, runs an activation function and in the following creates a dynamic output.
The following features/inputs are used as ‘neurons’:
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
Moving Average Convergence-Divergence (MACD)
Bollinger Bands
Stochastic Momentum
Average True Range (ATR)
These base indicators were chosen for their diverse methodologies for capturing market momentum, volatility and trend strength - mirroring how neurons in a Neural Network capture and process varied aspects of the input data.
Preprocessing:
Each technical indicator’s output is normalized to remove bias. Normalization is a standard practice to preprocess data for Neural Networks, to scale input data and allow the model to train more effectively.
Activation Function:
The hyperbolic tangent function serves as the activation function for the neurons. In general, for complete neural networks, activation functions introduce non-linear properties to the models and enable them to learn complex patterns. The tanh() function specifically maps the inputs to a range between -1 and 1.
Dynamic Smoothing:
The composite signal is dynamically smoothed using the Arnaud Legoux Moving Average, which adjusts faster to recent price changes - enhancing the indicator's responsiveness. It mimics the learning rate in neural networks - in this case for the output in a single layer approach - which controls how much new information influences the model, or in this case, our output.
Signal Processing:
The signal line also undergoes processing to adapt to the selected assets volatility. This step ensures the indicator’s flexibility across assets which exhibit different behaviors - similar to how a Neural Network adjusts to various data distributions.
Notes:
While the indicator synthesizes complex market information using methods inspired by neural networks, it is important to note that it does not engage in predictive modeling through the use of backpropagation. Instead, it applies methodologies of neural networks for real-time market analysis that is both dynamic and adaptable to changing market conditions.
