230616 SPX up or downSPX
原則上現在強勢突破後看能繼續多久
純技術上存在一些可以值得注意的位置
今天就來討論一下
大週期來看
4983 這個數字來自三角收斂開口得出的數據
5172 這個是上升三角來計算 但是如果以上升三角 這個時間太早 假突破機會很大 如果再回來測試再上去比較可能
長週期 4496 AB=CD
短週期 4476 AB=CD
4391 AB=CD 加上這邊是上次紐時的第一個山頭/也是轉換區域 所以這個位置我也特別註記了水平線
撇除大週期來看
長短週期的預估數字都很相近
而這波時間也突破原先設定的牛熊轉換L1
這個位置是有標誌性的意義在
明面上是趨勢有個比較樂觀的走向
但是同時”假突破“的可能性也存在
短線上有假突破 長線也是
現在要關注的重點在於是否能暫時喘口氣盤一下蓄力
圖上有兩條Tiffany Blue（Green） 這個是我短期的天地位置
位置內的紅線是我個人預估合理的走向
比較關鍵的是不能破橘色箭頭那條陰陽線
破了就是小牛結束回熊
個人操作上還是續抱
但是我的止損止盈基本上現在都拉的很近
寧願被掃出去
但是擔不起突來的大型跌幅導致賣不掉現貨
(換句話就是做期貨會比較靈活)
為什麼在大週期可以測得5172這個數字我還是相對保守
這個可以分成兩個層面來解釋
第一 政經未穩
第二 小型股未有明顯上漲
第一點 難掌握 變數也多 唯一比較能看好的就是美國選舉一般都是拉抬經濟 但是現在國際未平穩前 隨時都可能有大變數
第二點 以往真轉牛（經濟回穩）小型股雖然也是滯後 但是會有明顯的增幅及量 目前還看不到
所以我偏向這波要創新高有困難
回調時間應該就這幾天
另外 如果真的走向之前提過的有可能走1960-1980週期
那大週期的4983/5172 可以預見的就是頂部
圖內的230310框也是潛在頂部 端看未來走勢而已 (這個目前被突破機率蠻大的)
反正原則上 10年內 以往的大牛難現
短而快的牛熊替換或會是常態
注意倉位及資金控管
共勉之
In principle, after the strong breakthrough, it is worth considering how long it can continue. Purely from a technical perspective, there are some noteworthy levels to discuss today.
In terms of the long-term cycle:
4983 is derived from the converging triangle and represents an important data point.
5172 is calculated based on an ascending triangle. However, if we consider it as an ascending triangle, it may be too early, and there is a high chance of a false breakout. It is more likely to test again before continuing upward.
In the long-term, 4496 is an AB=CD pattern.
In the short-term, 4476 is an AB=CD pattern.
4391 is an AB=CD pattern and also represents the previous peak and a transition zone. I have marked this level with a horizontal line.
Setting aside the long-term perspective, the estimated numbers for the long and short-term cycles are quite close. The current price has also broken through the previously set bull-bear transition level L1, which holds significant significance. On the surface, it indicates a more optimistic trend, but at the same time, the possibility of a "false breakout" exists, both in the short and long-term.
The key focus now is whether there can be a temporary consolidation and accumulation of strength. There are two Tiffany Blue (Green) lines on the chart, which represent my short-term support and resistance levels. The red lines within this range indicate my personal estimation of a reasonable trajectory. It is crucial not to break the orange Yin-Yang line, as breaking it would signal the end of the minor bull and a return to a bearish market.
Personally, I continue to hold a bullish stance, but I have tightened my stop-loss and take-profit levels. I would rather be shaken out of my position than risk being unable to sell physical shares during a sudden large decline. (In other words, futures trading provides more flexibility.)
As for why I remain relatively conservative with the number 5172 in the long-term cycle, it can be explained from two perspectives:
Political and economic instability: It is difficult to grasp and there are many variables. The only relatively positive aspect is that US elections generally boost the economy. However, with the current international instability, there could be major variables at any time.
Lack of significant upward movement in small-cap stocks: In previous true bull markets (economic recovery), small-cap stocks showed obvious gains and increased trading volume. Currently, we haven't seen that.
Therefore, I lean towards the difficulty of reaching new highs in this wave, and the pullback time should be within a few days.
Additionally, if the market indeed follows the previously mentioned 1960-1980 cycle, the long-term levels of 4983 and 5172 can be considered potential tops. The 230310 box in the chart also represents a potential top, depending on future trends (there is a high probability of it being broken at the moment).
In general, it is difficult to see true long-term bull markets within a 10-year period. Short and rapid bull-bear transitions may become the norm. Pay attention to position management and fund control.
