30 Aug ’23 Post Mortem on BankNifty - Jio Fin starts Insurance?
BankNifty Analysis
The intensity of the fall was much more profound on BankNifty rather than Nifty. Right from the gap-up open the CE options premiums were commanding more premium than usual indicating a strong directional move. As soon as banknifty started falling this elevated premiums went away further indicating that the trader’s expectations were not matching.
I would like to see the move as more of a long unwinding rather than fresh shorting due to this observation. We had a total intraday fall of 1.39% ~ 623pts. When the banks started falling, I thought it might be some news related to Jio Financials. With the funding and tie-ups they could even start a lending business along with the insurance. Since they have the Blackrock tie-up, starting a broking service is also quite feasible.
On the 1hr TF, banknifty has just made a M pattern (double top) with a common support point. This makes the directional move probability for tomorrow quite lit up. I wish to stay neutral as long as the 44068 support is held, below which I would like to go short. To go long 44800 has to be broken again.
The intensity of the fall was much more profound on BankNifty rather than Nifty. Right from the gap-up open the CE options premiums were commanding more premium than usual indicating a strong directional move. As soon as banknifty started falling this elevated premiums went away further indicating that the trader’s expectations were not matching.
I would like to see the move as more of a long unwinding rather than fresh shorting due to this observation. We had a total intraday fall of 1.39% ~ 623pts. When the banks started falling, I thought it might be some news related to Jio Financials. With the funding and tie-ups they could even start a lending business along with the insurance. Since they have the Blackrock tie-up, starting a broking service is also quite feasible.
On the 1hr TF, banknifty has just made a M pattern (double top) with a common support point. This makes the directional move probability for tomorrow quite lit up. I wish to stay neutral as long as the 44068 support is held, below which I would like to go short. To go long 44800 has to be broken again.
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