Reducing Volatility as Measured in the Bollinger Band Width

The Bollinger band width measures how volatile prices are over a certain time period. The monthly chart reflects well peak volatility at the top of the cycle and minimal volatility at the bottom. What's most noticeable is that volatility doesn't bottom out until well after the price bottom. Looking at the previous cycle, even after price had recovered well off the cyclical bottom, volatility, as measured by the bands, kept declining for a good fifteen months. The prediction is that the band width/ volatility will continue to decline here for the fifteen months, or even longer given the likelihood that this cycle will be longer than the previous. What this entails for price development is a good few months of sideways. And then the slow move back up in the second quarter.

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The Bollinger band width also suggest reducing macro volatility and eventual price discovery going forward.