catching knives is dangerous, but also super fun.
price has broken the key support at the neckline.
this is the first time price has dipped below that neckline and hasn't sprung back up, which is why i'm assuming we're heading down. and also why i'm eyeing a retest of the neckline as a target.
potential bounce zone around $27.1k-$27.5k. this is the area where (1) the .618 fib retracement, (2) a drop-off in 3x margin selling pressure, and (3) a couple of minor trendlines meet. that's plenty enough for this guy! even if you're not into risky trades against the trend, this probably wouldn't be a bad place to average in a small buy (though i'm personally still waiting on $25k before i start doing that)
watching that $28.6k level (prior low) on the way down - a legit bounce there could even look bullish.
if price cuts right through the .618 fib without a bounce, bears will feast. but that's good for this trading idea because it means you can confidently keep your stop tightly below that level ($27.1k) to significantly reduce risk.
price has broken the key support at the neckline.
this is the first time price has dipped below that neckline and hasn't sprung back up, which is why i'm assuming we're heading down. and also why i'm eyeing a retest of the neckline as a target.
potential bounce zone around $27.1k-$27.5k. this is the area where (1) the .618 fib retracement, (2) a drop-off in 3x margin selling pressure, and (3) a couple of minor trendlines meet. that's plenty enough for this guy! even if you're not into risky trades against the trend, this probably wouldn't be a bad place to average in a small buy (though i'm personally still waiting on $25k before i start doing that)
watching that $28.6k level (prior low) on the way down - a legit bounce there could even look bullish.
if price cuts right through the .618 fib without a bounce, bears will feast. but that's good for this trading idea because it means you can confidently keep your stop tightly below that level ($27.1k) to significantly reduce risk.
評論:
one possibility i forgot to mention: if a retest of the neckline occurs BEFORE we hit our projected "bounce zone" (e.g. a bounce off the $28.6 low), all bets are off. doesn't mean we can't still get a bounce in that $27.1-$27.5k range, but i'd be much less confident in using the neckline as a target if it's already been retested and rejected.
評論:
interesting little pump with an uptick in volume. if it gets on top of this blue dotted trendline it could rally. that line is the top of the major descending triangle pattern (or is it REALLY a falling wedge?!). i still think we're coming straight back down, but we'll see... wouldn't be the first time i was wrong (nor the last).
評論:
anyone have thoughts on this pump? price looks to be pushing through the top of the triangle, but i'm definitely still leaning towards "fakeout" rather than breakout at this point...
評論:
still not entirely sure what to make of this pump, but i'm not ready to bite yet. smells like a bull trap. just got rejected at the .5 retracement level (of the advance from 2020). we're also back into the territory where 2x shorts are protected by the ATH, so the bulls will have their work cut out for them.
評論:
sure looking like a rally. could we go for a retest of the down trend line? i should probably start listening to my own advice...
