The pattern Bitcoin is currently making is treacherous and too
unclear to contemplate a trade at this point.
It looks and feels more manipulated right now than ever - as if
price is being left to run a little higher to stop hunt weak
bears before it gets reeled back in again. It should only get as
far as the upper parallel at around 7578 now at best on
Bitfinex before it falls away again.
To break the downtrend Bitcoin has to find buyers enough to
push back above the uppermost parallel and to hold it on the
retest. It looks unlikely now, but if we see it happen later on
it should be worth following for a potential weekend rally.
But in its absence Bitcoin remains stuck in a down-trend and
the dearth of support coming from US as it opens means it
should fall away again quite soon now from the 7525-7578
range. But even the downside is uncertain at present and it
could be that Bitcoin tries to establish a
around the 7318-7263 range when it does come off again.
Be careful with the short at this point. Needs spike to
arrive to push it lower still from there. If it comes and 7250
gives way it's good to follow short again or add to positions
looking for 7162 in near term and further out a decline in
stages back to 6615-6517 range.
Bitcoin: Something for Weekend - Maybe
Have to say although we all think it should fall away again soon, there is still a chance with the weekend coming that it can move sideways for a while inside the three blue lines it's been moving within all afternoon before one of two things eventually happen...
It could bust above the 7525 line and the dynamic around that level now - if so am following long and hoping for volume kick to arrive behind - otherwise in its absence will be forced to close out quickly at around evens.
That all seems rather unlikely right now though. But we still need to be prepared for it. It's Bitcoin and it's a potentially FUD-free weekend ahead.
Returning to the downside it's still fraught with potential danger. We have a higher intermediate low formed today so far which is telling us that in the nearterm at least this is no longer super bearish right now. It has been all week pretty much but it's more neutral again right now.
As a consequence day traders are likely to confine themselves to fast scalps between the lines - support at 7460 then 7400-7375 and then 7263, the key level which must hold up on any retests from here for this weekend ahead to have any hope of being a positive one again.
Any failure here at any point will tip Bitcoin back into negative territory once more.
Be careful with any shorts at this point. Needs volume spike to arrive to push it lower still from there. If it comes and 7250 gives way it's good to follow short again or add to positions looking for 7162 in near term and further out a decline in stages back to 6615-6517 range.
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