Activity among BTC adresses soars

Bitcoin jumped by more than $500 within a minute during the early European morning. Currently, it trades around $27,800, and once again, we will pay close attention to the critical resistance level at $28,000. If Bitcoin breaks above the resistance, it will be slightly bullish; indeed, it will also coincide with tight management of the short position, cutting it if the price rises above $28,000 and reentering it if the price falls below $28,000. In addition to the $28,000 price tag, we will watch Stochastic, RSI, and MACD on the daily time frame. To bolster a bullish case, we would like to see all of them continue rising, and this rise to be accompanied by a pick-up in volume. Furthermore, we would want to see ADX start rising, reflecting a growing bullish trend (the current trend is neutral, yet the volatility seems to be increasing). To support a bearish case, we would want to see Bitcoin struggle to overtake $28,000 and then $28,500. Besides that, we would like to see the mentioned technicals (except for ADX) start reversing to the downside.

In regard to the Bitcoin addresses (using data from LookIntoBitcoin), we saw an interesting development over the past few days. Since last Friday, there has been a massive increase in the number of addresses with 100 BTC or more in the balance. But, we have not seen the same in the number of wallets with 1,000 BTC or more in the balance. That raises our suspicion because, in the first quarter, sudden spikes combined with the rise in the number of Bitcoin addresses preceded the price’s rise to new highs. But then, once Bitcoin reached new highs, these two groups of addresses began selling to retail.

As for our stance, we remain very skeptical about the prospects of significant upside (especially if the recession hits). However, the volatility is picking up across various market segments (not just in the crypto), which can cause wild whipsaws before the price finally decides to trend one way. With that in mind, we want to emphasize the need for quick action and the use of tight stop-loss orders.

Illustration 1.01

Illustration 1.01 shows the 1-minute chart of BTCUSD. The yellow arrow indicates an abrupt spike in the price of Bitcoin during the early European morning; notice a similarity to the recent spikes we showed in the previous ideas (and also to spikes we showed in the first quarter of 2023).

Illustration 1.02

The image above shows the daily chart of MACD. If it breaks below the midpoint, it will be very bearish for Bitcoin. Interestingly, MACD can also be seen approaching the midpoint on the weekly chart.

Illustration 1.03

Illustration 1.03 portrays the daily chart of BTCUSD. The yellow arrow indicates Bitcoin’s reentry into the upward-sloping channel. We will observe whether it will manage to stay within the channel; if it fails, it will be bearish.

Technical analysis gauge
Daily time frame = Neutral
Weekly time frame = Neutral
*The gauge does not necessarily indicate where the market will head. Instead, it reflects the constellation of RSI, MACD, Stochastic, DM+-, ADX, and moving averages.

Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section.

DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.

評論:

Yesterday, fake news about the approval of Bitcoin Spot ETF caused it to spike above $30,000. However, the move-up lasted briefly, and Bitcoin gave up most of its gains. Overall, our stance has not changed.