This, like my previous two posts, is a model playing with multiplied moving averages. I found that more "spot on" cycle tops were seen when multiplying exponential moving averages, rather than simple moving averages. It appears that the relationship between the length of the moving average and pi is not really present here, as the 100, 200, and 400 day EMA multiplied by pi all correspond to the ceilings for each market cycle (2013, 2017, 2021). One may extrapolate that, if we are amidst a double peak cycle, the bitcoin price respects the 400 day EMA multiplied by pi as a "price ceiling"; And further extrapolation leads me to the idea that the next market cycle may respect the 800 day EMA multiplied by pi as a "price ceiling".
評論:
It's important to note that what defines a market cycle is somewhat subjective. It's possible that a slow transition to a 2x longer moving average over some specific period of time (roughly the length of what I define as a market cycle) would be more accurate at predicting the bitcoin price ceiling.