Looking at the bear fractal a few years back - the old support became resistance when the bear kicked in and BTC dropped below (blue horizontal support line).
From there it was some time before it finally built up and pushed through the now resistance (old support) which then became new support. BTC then overshot the support and corrected to retest support which held.
NOW: Depending on which blue support line you preference the horizontal (thinner) one @ approx 6k which would compare more closely to the previous bear market - OR the inclined (thicker) blue trend line which is my personal preference. What I'm looking for is a red weekly candle down to support (low 7's) then a doji candle for the following week as we go sideways and test support/accumulate.
Personally, I don't think we'll see lower than 6k for both of the above scenarios - but below 6k is always a possibility, just a lower probability for me. I also prefer the inclined thicker trend line probably because of my bullish bias.
I also favour a dip here and not higher due to the weekly ichi cloud which is very close to where we were rejected. To me we retest support before having another crack through the cloud and new highs.
So...
Scenario 1: 7k (inclined thicker blue TL)
Scenario 2: 6k (horizontal thinner blue TL)
Scenario 3: below 6k.... this would make me bearish medium term and upon further assessment
Scenario 4: 8k holds and we go to 10.5-11k before coming back to one of the blue TL's drawn, my preference being the inclined one which will be approx 7.5k-8k by the time we've been up there and back again...
Not financial advice - just sharing my ideas/thoughts. Good luck!
From there it was some time before it finally built up and pushed through the now resistance (old support) which then became new support. BTC then overshot the support and corrected to retest support which held.
NOW: Depending on which blue support line you preference the horizontal (thinner) one @ approx 6k which would compare more closely to the previous bear market - OR the inclined (thicker) blue trend line which is my personal preference. What I'm looking for is a red weekly candle down to support (low 7's) then a doji candle for the following week as we go sideways and test support/accumulate.
Personally, I don't think we'll see lower than 6k for both of the above scenarios - but below 6k is always a possibility, just a lower probability for me. I also prefer the inclined thicker trend line probably because of my bullish bias.
I also favour a dip here and not higher due to the weekly ichi cloud which is very close to where we were rejected. To me we retest support before having another crack through the cloud and new highs.
So...
Scenario 1: 7k (inclined thicker blue TL)
Scenario 2: 6k (horizontal thinner blue TL)
Scenario 3: below 6k.... this would make me bearish medium term and upon further assessment
Scenario 4: 8k holds and we go to 10.5-11k before coming back to one of the blue TL's drawn, my preference being the inclined one which will be approx 7.5k-8k by the time we've been up there and back again...
Not financial advice - just sharing my ideas/thoughts. Good luck!