BTCUSD can go both ways!!!

12月15日

Full BTC/USD 4H Analysis with Projections

Key Ichimoku Observations:

1. Tenkan-sen (Blue Line): Flat, indicating short-term indecision.

2. Kijun-sen (Red Line): Also flat, confirming a sideways market.

3. Senkou Span A & B (Kumo/Cloud):

The Kumo is thin and slightly bullish (green), suggesting indecision but still supporting a bullish bias.

Price remains above the Kumo, maintaining an overall bullish structure.

4. Chikou Span (Green Line): Positioned above price from 26 periods ago, confirming bullish momentum.

However, it is approaching historical price clusters that may cause resistance.

Wave Theory Analysis (N-Wave and P-Wave):

An N-Wave (bullish impulsive move) occurred earlier, followed by a period of consolidation.

Currently, a P-Wave (triangle formation) is evident, with price contracting between 100,000 (support) and 102,000 (resistance):

Breakout above 102,000 signals trend continuation.

Breakdown below 100,000 signals bearish correction.

Time Theory (Kihon-Suchi):

Ichimoku Time Theory suggests cycles of 9, 17, 26 periods where price movements, reversals, or consolidations occur. Using these time projections:

1. We are at the Decision Zone: The price is consolidating, and a breakout or breakdown is expected within 4-8 candles (16-32 hours).

2. After the breakout/breakdown, the following time projections apply:

9 candles (36 hours): For 1st targets.

17 candles (68 hours): For extended targets.

Trade Setup with Projections:

Bullish Scenario (Higher Probability):

Trigger: Breakout and close above 102,000.

Confirmation:

Price holds above Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen.

Chikou Span remains free of resistance.

Targets and Projections:

1. 1st Target: 104,000 reached within 9 candles (~36 hours) after breakout.

2. 2nd Target: 106,000 reached within 17 candles (~68 hours) after breakout.

Stop Loss: Place below 100,000 (psychological support and Kijun level).

Bearish Scenario:

Trigger: Breakdown and close below 100,000.

Confirmation:

Chikou Span drops below the price structure.

Price enters and closes below the Kumo.

Targets and Projections:

1. 1st Target: 98,000 reached within 9 candles (~36 hours) after breakdown.

2. 2nd Target: 96,000 reached within 17 candles (~68 hours) after breakdown.

Stop Loss: Place above 102,000 (resistance and previous highs).

Time Cycle Summary Table:

Conclusion:

Current Bias: Bullish as long as price remains above the Kumo and 100,000.

Next Action: Monitor price behavior near 102,000 (resistance) and 100,000 (support).

Time Projection for Breakout or Breakdown: Next 16-32 hours (4-8 candles).

This combined approach using Ichimoku Wave Theory, Time Theory, and price action provides a clear trade plan for BTC/USD.