BTC correction predictions.. $4600 area most likely

2017年10月27日

BTC was due for a correction. This is what i am looking at. i used fib retrace, fib extensions, fractals and waves to get to my target area. I am quite confident we will reach the orange area but think we will fall through there and end somewhere in the green area close to $4600. It is possible we extend in the red area but its much less likely imo. You can also see how i copied the chart from the 1st half of september which fits pretty good as an overlay in the current wave down. You also see the red horizontal lines which are over the dip after both ATH, the retrace from the dump in both cases retraced almost 100% exact. if you go back in time more you can see that again in the wave before that. The large waves before retraced to .5 and .618 the time when china banned exchanges. the $4600 level is where the .5 retrace is for this wave.
People say what about segwit2x fork maybe people hoard bitcoin again. yes maybe, but the scenario im giving here can unfold in a week time which still gives 2 weeks for a run up for segwit. Time will tell but this is my view atm.

I tried to keep my chart clean but i just like a lot of lines, it works for me, it had quite a few more before which i deleted to post this :P

I shorted from around $5975 and looking at the orange and green area to gradually close my positions.



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2017年10月27日

註釋

p.s. the purple vertical line as segwit2x fork roughly

2017年10月28日

註釋

I reflected a bit more on BTC and saw that the $5k level could provide more support then i initially thought posting this analyses. Its possible the orange area is already strong enough to give enough support atm and start a small rally to the $6,8k level around the segwit2x fork before we get a larger correction after that.

My profit taking plan as discribed above is unchange and will start in the orange area, depending on the market atm i will see what % to close

2017年10月30日

註釋

BTC decided its not yet time to correct. we might see a bit more upside before a correction from the move up from $3k will come. when we start going down for the correction ill see if my target area has changed.