Hello Everyone,
Many of us knows the stock-to-flow ratio model (S2F), primarally published by PlanB. We know that model is only teoretical support and do not shows exact levels for the price. But can suggest, of course, "fair value" according to Bitcoin's inflation.
Today we have two months since we broke long-term support and the price dropped to c.a. 3800 USD. Since that day we have built another rising trend. This rising trend is very strong for enabling the price to reach the "fair value". If the S2F model is true, we already reached the "fair value" and the rising of the price does not need to be as strong.
As you see, the slope of the current trend (since 2 months) is a little harder than the slope of the fitted S2F 365-daily moving average line (S2F 365d MA) according to PlanB's model. That is why the current trend should be broken (in my opinion). The miners' capitulation after the halving is a really good opportunity to do that, finally. BTW, RSI 14 support line is already broken since yesterday.
As the S2F 365d MA is rising, however, also rapidly, the break of current trend does not have to mean a massive price dropping down. We need to just find another supports and build new rising trend. Or... or go back to the older that was broken two months ago.
With best regards,
Paweł
Many of us knows the stock-to-flow ratio model (S2F), primarally published by PlanB. We know that model is only teoretical support and do not shows exact levels for the price. But can suggest, of course, "fair value" according to Bitcoin's inflation.
Today we have two months since we broke long-term support and the price dropped to c.a. 3800 USD. Since that day we have built another rising trend. This rising trend is very strong for enabling the price to reach the "fair value". If the S2F model is true, we already reached the "fair value" and the rising of the price does not need to be as strong.
As you see, the slope of the current trend (since 2 months) is a little harder than the slope of the fitted S2F 365-daily moving average line (S2F 365d MA) according to PlanB's model. That is why the current trend should be broken (in my opinion). The miners' capitulation after the halving is a really good opportunity to do that, finally. BTW, RSI 14 support line is already broken since yesterday.
As the S2F 365d MA is rising, however, also rapidly, the break of current trend does not have to mean a massive price dropping down. We need to just find another supports and build new rising trend. Or... or go back to the older that was broken two months ago.
With best regards,
Paweł
評論:
As predicted... We found support at the long-term line... ;-)