We have mentioned for weeks now that the market is just to volatile to be trading and at that time we went to 30% cash in our 70/30 portfolio. Now we didn't sell anything (with one exception which i will explain), but instead of trading the market, we battened down the hatches and were looking for fire sales. Now this is not a knock on traders. I follow several traders as I think they have great TA skills. Dian, MarcPmarkets, Excavo, citron rouge to name a few have a mentality of trading that is less about ego, and more about charts. But I did not make my money in the market trading and few do. I made my money investing and a lot of it! Traders have to trade to make money, investors we let our money make money! MarcPmarkets mentioned yesterday he would NOT short BTC' on margin, and he has been trading on wall street since the 90's. In 30 years of investing I've seen traders make money in bull markets, but none have out performed me in the long term. Have you ever noticed most traders only have 10 years or less experience? Why because eventually statistics show you lose and everyone makes money in bull markets. Now there are the exceptions. But as we have stated over and over they are truly exceptions! MarcP is one of them, but why? Because he knows when when NOT to trade!
Yesterday I had several messages about shorting Bitcoin. I was honest, yes the chart says short, but fundamentally I do not think you can short here as the segwit2x is lingering and unknowns are not a good thing not to mention it was crowded. I think the three that messaged yesterday are happy today they did not short! As an investor/trader I we do not just look at the charts but also looked at the fundamentals as well. It was mixed. NO TRADE! We provided a fair market value for BTC' and it was about $4900. Fundamentally we felt the price of BTC' was going to be dependent on B2x which at the time was trading around $1000. Well this morning it popped to $1050+. Is it a coincidence that BTC' popped as well? NO! This is where investors that are looking at other factors out perform traders looking at patterns. B2X' is the factor driving price right now, not a head and shoulders pattern, not a diamond pattern, it's fundamentals! This is why we mentioned it is critical to follow B2X'. These patterns are forming because of the trend. The trend is sideways until something happens one way or another with B2x! B2X is the chart and trend you should be following, not a connect the dot pattern on BTC'.
Fundamentally a few weeks ago we posted an article on BCH' and why we thought BCH' was truly undervalued and it was time to accumulate. We looked at the fundamentals, we went beyond the charts and spoke with true code technicians that were telling us BCH' is the real Bitcoin. Boy did we get some flak, but doing our research and sticking to our guns paid off. And better than any 1-2.5 risk to reward trade. (by the way if it's not above 4 on bitcoin I do not trade it, it's too expensive which I will expand on). In addition we sold some BTC' off (because it was overweight in our portfolio) and bought more BCH and ZEC. Well one lost 10% but the other was a 60% or so winner. This again was an investment move. We sold off some BTC' which was up 50% from our original entry and added to two coins that were undervalued. BTC' at that time was trading around $5900. See how investing and trading around a core portfolio out performs traders in volatile markets? If BTC does correct, then the move increases our returns even more! Chicken dinner night baby!
Now why we do not trade BTC' less than 1/4. It's just too expensive. It's about percentage returns not dollar gains (unless your a scalper). I would rather play for a $5 move in LTC' then a $300 move in BTC'. Now if the RR is right like 1/8 then I'm in on that, but until B2X' is settled BTC' is not tradeable here period! Just hold and monitor the fundamentals.
Yesterday I had several messages about shorting Bitcoin. I was honest, yes the chart says short, but fundamentally I do not think you can short here as the segwit2x is lingering and unknowns are not a good thing not to mention it was crowded. I think the three that messaged yesterday are happy today they did not short! As an investor/trader I we do not just look at the charts but also looked at the fundamentals as well. It was mixed. NO TRADE! We provided a fair market value for BTC' and it was about $4900. Fundamentally we felt the price of BTC' was going to be dependent on B2x which at the time was trading around $1000. Well this morning it popped to $1050+. Is it a coincidence that BTC' popped as well? NO! This is where investors that are looking at other factors out perform traders looking at patterns. B2X' is the factor driving price right now, not a head and shoulders pattern, not a diamond pattern, it's fundamentals! This is why we mentioned it is critical to follow B2X'. These patterns are forming because of the trend. The trend is sideways until something happens one way or another with B2x! B2X is the chart and trend you should be following, not a connect the dot pattern on BTC'.
Fundamentally a few weeks ago we posted an article on BCH' and why we thought BCH' was truly undervalued and it was time to accumulate. We looked at the fundamentals, we went beyond the charts and spoke with true code technicians that were telling us BCH' is the real Bitcoin. Boy did we get some flak, but doing our research and sticking to our guns paid off. And better than any 1-2.5 risk to reward trade. (by the way if it's not above 4 on bitcoin I do not trade it, it's too expensive which I will expand on). In addition we sold some BTC' off (because it was overweight in our portfolio) and bought more BCH and ZEC. Well one lost 10% but the other was a 60% or so winner. This again was an investment move. We sold off some BTC' which was up 50% from our original entry and added to two coins that were undervalued. BTC' at that time was trading around $5900. See how investing and trading around a core portfolio out performs traders in volatile markets? If BTC does correct, then the move increases our returns even more! Chicken dinner night baby!
Now why we do not trade BTC' less than 1/4. It's just too expensive. It's about percentage returns not dollar gains (unless your a scalper). I would rather play for a $5 move in LTC' then a $300 move in BTC'. Now if the RR is right like 1/8 then I'm in on that, but until B2X' is settled BTC' is not tradeable here period! Just hold and monitor the fundamentals.
評論:
Not sure why the BTC chart screwed up so here it is.
