Update to previous analyses - downward pressure to continue...
Further to last analysis - see below in related ideas.
The scenario above appears to be playing out and as discussed the price action in the 3d is headed to the proximity of the Bollinger Band basis. (Currently $40533 but rising), we have already seen the price action dip into the predicted range and seems to be set to continue at least to the lower level of the range at around $41000. Looking at lowere timeframes there is no sign of reversal to upward pressure and the Energy is higher than the Green EMA in all lower timeframes indicating bearish sentiment. In the 4d we can see the Green EMA is dangerously close to 50. As in the earlier part of this analysis (in relation to the 3d) if the Green closes below 50 with the Red RSI below 80 in the 4d, we are highly likely to see the price action fall to the proximity of the BB basis in this TF too (Currently $36896 but rising). We are still in a downward pressure race between the Energy in the daily and the Red RSI in the 2d. As previously stated, unless the Energy CLOSES above 50 in the daily before the Red RSI CROSSES below 50 in the 2d, we have NO CHANCE of reversing to upward pressure in these TFs. Furthermore, if the Red RSI & Blue LSMA continue their current harmonious trajectory and close below 50 in the 2d, we are at risk of seeing the price action fall between the Aqua/Orange lower BBs (Currently $3000 - 22082). Also, if this happens, we are also likely to see the BBs expand with the price action remaining between the Aqua/Orange BBs accelerating further to the downside. I'm not saying this will definitely happen and it would take a while to play out but just wanted to point out the risk. The Red RSI has also crossed bearish below the Blue LSMA in the 2d.
We are seeing signs of the Energy in the 2d beginning to exhaust but it has a long way up again and the Energy in the 3d & 4d is still falling.
As pointed out in previous analysis, we are still seeing bullish sentiment in the mid to long term timeframes.
As previously mentioned in previous publications, these markets can change with very little notice. These changes initially manifest themselves in the lower timeframes and propagate up through the timeframes. Nothing is set in stone. Unless you are day trading, you cannot benefit from these early warning signals.
As always - this is not financial advice but just my view of current market dynamics.
One has to be aware that analyses are done on the basis of what the indicators are saying at the time and things can change. It is important to always monitor the scalping group of timeframes as we will see changes propagate up from there.
If you got value from this analysis, please hit the like button.
Trade safe
aBL
The scenario above appears to be playing out and as discussed the price action in the 3d is headed to the proximity of the Bollinger Band basis. (Currently $40533 but rising), we have already seen the price action dip into the predicted range and seems to be set to continue at least to the lower level of the range at around $41000. Looking at lowere timeframes there is no sign of reversal to upward pressure and the Energy is higher than the Green EMA in all lower timeframes indicating bearish sentiment. In the 4d we can see the Green EMA is dangerously close to 50. As in the earlier part of this analysis (in relation to the 3d) if the Green closes below 50 with the Red RSI below 80 in the 4d, we are highly likely to see the price action fall to the proximity of the BB basis in this TF too (Currently $36896 but rising). We are still in a downward pressure race between the Energy in the daily and the Red RSI in the 2d. As previously stated, unless the Energy CLOSES above 50 in the daily before the Red RSI CROSSES below 50 in the 2d, we have NO CHANCE of reversing to upward pressure in these TFs. Furthermore, if the Red RSI & Blue LSMA continue their current harmonious trajectory and close below 50 in the 2d, we are at risk of seeing the price action fall between the Aqua/Orange lower BBs (Currently $3000 - 22082). Also, if this happens, we are also likely to see the BBs expand with the price action remaining between the Aqua/Orange BBs accelerating further to the downside. I'm not saying this will definitely happen and it would take a while to play out but just wanted to point out the risk. The Red RSI has also crossed bearish below the Blue LSMA in the 2d.
We are seeing signs of the Energy in the 2d beginning to exhaust but it has a long way up again and the Energy in the 3d & 4d is still falling.
As pointed out in previous analysis, we are still seeing bullish sentiment in the mid to long term timeframes.
As previously mentioned in previous publications, these markets can change with very little notice. These changes initially manifest themselves in the lower timeframes and propagate up through the timeframes. Nothing is set in stone. Unless you are day trading, you cannot benefit from these early warning signals.
As always - this is not financial advice but just my view of current market dynamics.
One has to be aware that analyses are done on the basis of what the indicators are saying at the time and things can change. It is important to always monitor the scalping group of timeframes as we will see changes propagate up from there.
If you got value from this analysis, please hit the like button.
Trade safe
aBL
評論:
Just to point out that the Green is higher than the Energy now in all the scalping TFs & most of the short and near term - also a good sign, as I say I will try and update when I get a moment...
評論:
Just to point out that upward or downward pressure is specific to the timeframes in question. In other words we can be both bullish and bearish on the same pair.
So when I point out that we are seeing bullish sentiment in lower timeframes and this can be reflected in price action, this doesn't change my view of bearish sentiment in higher timeframes which still remains...
So when I point out that we are seeing bullish sentiment in lower timeframes and this can be reflected in price action, this doesn't change my view of bearish sentiment in higher timeframes which still remains...
評論:
As suggested at the beginning of this analysis:
"if the Green closes below 50 with the Red RSI below 80 in the 4d, we are highly likely to see the price action fall to the proximity of the BB basis in this TF too (Currently $36896 but rising)."
The Green EMA is now at level 46.58 and the Red RSI is 78.42 - these were the criteria for the next bearish move - this move is now in progress. We have not yet closed in the 4d in this situation, however, if we do in 3d and 3h, it is pretty much inevitable that the bearish sentiment will be reflected in the price action during the next 4d candle. As previously stated the price action in this scenario will fall to within the proximity of the Bollinger Band basis which has now risen to 38377 and still rising. It is my view that the basis will be in the vicinity of my previously mentioned target of $41000 if this plays out.
The only way we will avoid this is if we can see upward pressure cascade up from lower timeframes. Now, we have seen the Energy win the downward pressure race in the 1d against the Red RSI in the 2d...
...But in order to confirm this as a resumption of upward pressure, we needed to see the Green EMA higher than the Energy in at least the 3 preceding timeframes. This currently is not the case. If we can see the Green higher than the Energy in these timeframes as well as in the daily and we also see the Red RSI close in the 2d while making contact with the Green EMA as it rises, we do have a fighting chance of the the Green EMA turning back up in the 4d as it has done in the 3d. So, there are a lot of if's which is consistent with the indecisive mood of the current dynamic.
In summary:
Considering the level of the Energy in the near term group of timeframes and the juxtaposition of the indicators described above, we remain bearish near term until we have confirmation otherwise.
"if the Green closes below 50 with the Red RSI below 80 in the 4d, we are highly likely to see the price action fall to the proximity of the BB basis in this TF too (Currently $36896 but rising)."
The Green EMA is now at level 46.58 and the Red RSI is 78.42 - these were the criteria for the next bearish move - this move is now in progress. We have not yet closed in the 4d in this situation, however, if we do in 3d and 3h, it is pretty much inevitable that the bearish sentiment will be reflected in the price action during the next 4d candle. As previously stated the price action in this scenario will fall to within the proximity of the Bollinger Band basis which has now risen to 38377 and still rising. It is my view that the basis will be in the vicinity of my previously mentioned target of $41000 if this plays out.
The only way we will avoid this is if we can see upward pressure cascade up from lower timeframes. Now, we have seen the Energy win the downward pressure race in the 1d against the Red RSI in the 2d...
...But in order to confirm this as a resumption of upward pressure, we needed to see the Green EMA higher than the Energy in at least the 3 preceding timeframes. This currently is not the case. If we can see the Green higher than the Energy in these timeframes as well as in the daily and we also see the Red RSI close in the 2d while making contact with the Green EMA as it rises, we do have a fighting chance of the the Green EMA turning back up in the 4d as it has done in the 3d. So, there are a lot of if's which is consistent with the indecisive mood of the current dynamic.
In summary:
Considering the level of the Energy in the near term group of timeframes and the juxtaposition of the indicators described above, we remain bearish near term until we have confirmation otherwise.
評論:
Just a quick update on previous comments..
...As mentioned, the Energy in the daily had won the race and we were looking for confirmation of upward pressure in the context of the Green EMA being higher than the Energy in the preceding 3 timeframes. This is still not the case as the Energy is higher than the Green in the 3h & 12h as well as in the daily. However the Green EMA is going up pretty strong with the Energy in the daily which is a good sign. As pointed out, we were waiting to see if we could close in the 2d with the Red RSI making contact with the Green as it rises - although we havent closed like this, we have progressed and have just 12 hours left in the 2d candle. I indicated that we were hoping to see the Green in the 4d turn back up in order to avert the scenario indicated playing out. The Green EMA in the 4d has now turned back up. (see chart below for comparison to original chart) So although we still have 2d & 13 hours left in the 4d things are looking more promising. We could see a similar scenario to that on Jan 25 where the Green EMA reversed after heading to cross below 50. I will keep an eye on the Green/Energy relationships and keep updated.
...As mentioned, the Energy in the daily had won the race and we were looking for confirmation of upward pressure in the context of the Green EMA being higher than the Energy in the preceding 3 timeframes. This is still not the case as the Energy is higher than the Green in the 3h & 12h as well as in the daily. However the Green EMA is going up pretty strong with the Energy in the daily which is a good sign. As pointed out, we were waiting to see if we could close in the 2d with the Red RSI making contact with the Green as it rises - although we havent closed like this, we have progressed and have just 12 hours left in the 2d candle. I indicated that we were hoping to see the Green in the 4d turn back up in order to avert the scenario indicated playing out. The Green EMA in the 4d has now turned back up. (see chart below for comparison to original chart) So although we still have 2d & 13 hours left in the 4d things are looking more promising. We could see a similar scenario to that on Jan 25 where the Green EMA reversed after heading to cross below 50. I will keep an eye on the Green/Energy relationships and keep updated.
評論:
Just wanted to point out that the Energy is still higher than the Green in the 12h, however it does look like the Energy is just about to drop below. If this happens it will satisfy the criterion that the Green must be higher than the Energy in the 3 preceding timeframes to the one in which the Red RSI triggered the race in order to confirm that the Energy has conclusively won the race. If we can see this happen, we have one obstacle left - the Energy in the daily is still higher than the Green EMA. As previously stated this can change and in fact it is usual as upward pressure cascades up the timeframes for the Green to go up strong with the Energy - while this is happening, we can consider this to be a transitional process rather than an indication of persistant downward pressure.
It is worth noting in addition:
When the Red RSI CROSSED above 50 in the 12h an upward pressure race was triggered. In order for us to see a continuation of upward pressure, we need to see the Red RSI in the daily CROSS above 50 before the Energy in the 12h CLOSES below 50. Additionally we need to see the Green EMA, higher than the Energy in the three preceding timeframes. If the Red RSI in the daily wins the race, we need to see if the upward pressure can propagate into the next doubled timeframe. So we need to see the Red RSI in the 4d CROSS above 50 before the Energy in the 1d CLOSES below 50.
It is worth noting in addition:
When the Red RSI CROSSED above 50 in the 12h an upward pressure race was triggered. In order for us to see a continuation of upward pressure, we need to see the Red RSI in the daily CROSS above 50 before the Energy in the 12h CLOSES below 50. Additionally we need to see the Green EMA, higher than the Energy in the three preceding timeframes. If the Red RSI in the daily wins the race, we need to see if the upward pressure can propagate into the next doubled timeframe. So we need to see the Red RSI in the 4d CROSS above 50 before the Energy in the 1d CLOSES below 50.
評論:
Update re Race...
With regard to the upward pressure race described in previous comment; The Energy has crossed below 50 in the 12h and the Red RSI has yet to cross above 50. If we CLOSE with the Energy below 50 before the Red RSI CROSSES above 50, we have not confirmed this criterion for continuation of upward pressure. Additional criterion was that the Green needed to be higher than the Energy in the 3 preceding timeframes. This is not the case in either the 90 or 3h.
Furthermore, with regard to the downward pressure race between the Energy in the daily and the Red RSI in the 2d, we never got the confirmation for continuation of upward pressure in the form of the Green being higher than the Energy in the 3 preceding timeframes. Consequently we still have a period of indecision and have no confirmed move in either direction. We are still at risk of the aforementioned scenario playing out where the price action falls to the vicinity of the Bollinger Band basis in the 4d. This is likely to play out if the Green falls and closes below 50 in 1d and 9 hours.
Also of concern is the 3h is the trajectory being taken by the Red RSI and the Blue LSMA toward 50 particularly if the Red RSI continues on its path to cross bearish below the Blue LSMA.
In summary:
I would say we are at a moment of indecision as we fail to make a convincing close above the $50k psychological resistance. A bearish close (in the context of the above description) of the current 2d & 4d candles in 1d & 9h will likely see price action drop to the aforementioned target of around $41K
With regard to the upward pressure race described in previous comment; The Energy has crossed below 50 in the 12h and the Red RSI has yet to cross above 50. If we CLOSE with the Energy below 50 before the Red RSI CROSSES above 50, we have not confirmed this criterion for continuation of upward pressure. Additional criterion was that the Green needed to be higher than the Energy in the 3 preceding timeframes. This is not the case in either the 90 or 3h.
Furthermore, with regard to the downward pressure race between the Energy in the daily and the Red RSI in the 2d, we never got the confirmation for continuation of upward pressure in the form of the Green being higher than the Energy in the 3 preceding timeframes. Consequently we still have a period of indecision and have no confirmed move in either direction. We are still at risk of the aforementioned scenario playing out where the price action falls to the vicinity of the Bollinger Band basis in the 4d. This is likely to play out if the Green falls and closes below 50 in 1d and 9 hours.
Also of concern is the 3h is the trajectory being taken by the Red RSI and the Blue LSMA toward 50 particularly if the Red RSI continues on its path to cross bearish below the Blue LSMA.
In summary:
I would say we are at a moment of indecision as we fail to make a convincing close above the $50k psychological resistance. A bearish close (in the context of the above description) of the current 2d & 4d candles in 1d & 9h will likely see price action drop to the aforementioned target of around $41K
評論:
Just a very quick update to confirm the continuation of bearish sentiment.
We have now seen the Red RSI in the 3d cross and CLOSE bearish below the Blue LSMA. Both the Red RSI & Blue LSMA are getting ever closer to the 50 level and the Green has turned back down. The Green EMA in the daily never managed to get above the Energy which reflects bearish sentiment. Now also in the daily the Red RSI has made contact with the Green as it falls, if we close like this in 17 hours, we will see the Energy fall below 50 on the start of the following candle.
In the 2d the Green has turned back down. The Green EMA in the 4d has been struggling to stay above 50 for a while now, having dipped below and retracted. Our close above 50 in 17 hours is critical in preventing price action dropping to the vicinity of the BB basis and the bearish target of IMO $40-41k.
We need to see bullish sentiment propagate up from lower timeframes, however there is currently no evidence of this. The Energy is higher than the Green in the 90 and 3h indicating that we are likely to see a lower high in these TFs, we are currently seeing the White lower BB act as resistance in the 90. We are unlikely to see the price action in this TF go above the BB basis.
Any signs of hope?
As previously mentioned, bullish sentiment will initiate in the scalping group of TFs and propagate up. We can see the Green higher than the Energy in the 6m and the 12m. The Green has gone up strongly with the Red RSI in the 45. There is a chance for us to turn bullish from these timeframes - but really I see indecision.
We have now seen the Red RSI in the 3d cross and CLOSE bearish below the Blue LSMA. Both the Red RSI & Blue LSMA are getting ever closer to the 50 level and the Green has turned back down. The Green EMA in the daily never managed to get above the Energy which reflects bearish sentiment. Now also in the daily the Red RSI has made contact with the Green as it falls, if we close like this in 17 hours, we will see the Energy fall below 50 on the start of the following candle.
In the 2d the Green has turned back down. The Green EMA in the 4d has been struggling to stay above 50 for a while now, having dipped below and retracted. Our close above 50 in 17 hours is critical in preventing price action dropping to the vicinity of the BB basis and the bearish target of IMO $40-41k.
We need to see bullish sentiment propagate up from lower timeframes, however there is currently no evidence of this. The Energy is higher than the Green in the 90 and 3h indicating that we are likely to see a lower high in these TFs, we are currently seeing the White lower BB act as resistance in the 90. We are unlikely to see the price action in this TF go above the BB basis.
Any signs of hope?
As previously mentioned, bullish sentiment will initiate in the scalping group of TFs and propagate up. We can see the Green higher than the Energy in the 6m and the 12m. The Green has gone up strongly with the Red RSI in the 45. There is a chance for us to turn bullish from these timeframes - but really I see indecision.
We are looking as though the Energy in the daily is about to win the race against the Red RSI in the 2d, meaning we have a chance for transition to upward pressure in this timeframe. We still need to see the Green higher than the Energy in the 3 preceding timeframes. This isn't currently the case with the 12 hour, however the Green EMA is going up strong with the Energy which is a good sign.