Used the BTC logarithmic growth curves indicator, as well as fractals from previous cycles, extrapolating them out over an extended period of time. I believe from cycle-peak to cycle-peak will take about an additional year with each passing cycle (2013 - 2017, 2017 - 2022 or 2023, 2023 - 2029 or 2030, etc.)
Eventually BTC price fluctuations will smooth out, and day-to-day volatility will look more like the stock market, with 0.5 - 1% daily moves being viewed as significant. I think by the 2040s, after the 8th halving when the block reward will be less than 0.20 BTC, 1 BTC will be between $10 to $20 million and the price will become relatively stable. Of course, anything could happen (looking at you, Putin) but I think this is the general direction we're heading toward. BTC is mathematical and monetary purity.
Eventually BTC price fluctuations will smooth out, and day-to-day volatility will look more like the stock market, with 0.5 - 1% daily moves being viewed as significant. I think by the 2040s, after the 8th halving when the block reward will be less than 0.20 BTC, 1 BTC will be between $10 to $20 million and the price will become relatively stable. Of course, anything could happen (looking at you, Putin) but I think this is the general direction we're heading toward. BTC is mathematical and monetary purity.
評論:
This is obviously invalidated. I was smoking hopium. I still have reason to believe BTC will consistently stay above $100k by 2028, and consistently stay above $1 million by 2037. The macro environment for the next year looks bad. I think the next halving in March 2024 plus a likely more generous macro environment in 2024 sets up nicely for another strong BTC bull run. I'll be accumulating as much as I can all year through mining.