Carried over from previous idea "They always short the bottom"
Bit clearer view in this chart, but we can add a third "Short the bottom" zone when BTCUSDSHORTS rose almost 15% intraday on what was a few hundred dollar move down for Bitcoin and got absolutely smashed down as BTC price pumped from 5800 - 6400.
The psychology of the market is that we've seen a significant bear trend, lasting about 6 months and with 70% down off the all time high. The traders who are trading short now are lagging the trend aka dumb money, or retail traders that are turning up late to the party.
Smart money was trading short at far higher prices: The trend change signal came at 8800 when BTC made a lower high. See previous ideas to show where the trend change was spotted and how:
You want to get short near the start of a major downtrend and avoid trading short at what could be the end or near the end, as vicious bear market rallies can liquidate your positions leaving you penniless in the face of relentless rising prices which all too often.
It's a sad thing that 90% of retail traders lose money and 70% lose all their money and as a result, when you see an extreme of sentiment from one side of the market, you can bet against it and win with relatively high odds.
Bit clearer view in this chart, but we can add a third "Short the bottom" zone when BTCUSDSHORTS rose almost 15% intraday on what was a few hundred dollar move down for Bitcoin and got absolutely smashed down as BTC price pumped from 5800 - 6400.
The psychology of the market is that we've seen a significant bear trend, lasting about 6 months and with 70% down off the all time high. The traders who are trading short now are lagging the trend aka dumb money, or retail traders that are turning up late to the party.
Smart money was trading short at far higher prices: The trend change signal came at 8800 when BTC made a lower high. See previous ideas to show where the trend change was spotted and how:
- BTC Broke major support 50MA down = downtrend
- How to spot trend changes
- ETHUSD Potential short setup
You want to get short near the start of a major downtrend and avoid trading short at what could be the end or near the end, as vicious bear market rallies can liquidate your positions leaving you penniless in the face of relentless rising prices which all too often.
It's a sad thing that 90% of retail traders lose money and 70% lose all their money and as a result, when you see an extreme of sentiment from one side of the market, you can bet against it and win with relatively high odds.
評論:
For those of you wondering how this worked out, shorts peaked three times and recently got crushed. Always be wary when you're betting with the crowd
