Update on my previous prediction for BTC capitulation.
Usually that's a bounce off the 200SMA, but rather than just relying on lagging indicators heres some additional confluence towards that...
Looking at 2018 on the left, we can see that the December 2018 capitulation dipped to the 200SMA (yellow line), and also the first point of untested support on the volume profile (left green histogram and black arrow). Interestingly, that amounts to a 159% increase from the red volume profile "point of control" line to the bottom of the capitulation.
If we apply the same setup to 2022 on the right, we can see that the same capitulation setup could play out - $25K as the bottom would line up to the 200SMA, but also the first point of untested support on the volume profile as well as a 159% increase from the red point of control line.
Every cycle is different, but lets see what plays out. Will capitulation even happen?
Usually that's a bounce off the 200SMA, but rather than just relying on lagging indicators heres some additional confluence towards that...
Looking at 2018 on the left, we can see that the December 2018 capitulation dipped to the 200SMA (yellow line), and also the first point of untested support on the volume profile (left green histogram and black arrow). Interestingly, that amounts to a 159% increase from the red volume profile "point of control" line to the bottom of the capitulation.
If we apply the same setup to 2022 on the right, we can see that the same capitulation setup could play out - $25K as the bottom would line up to the 200SMA, but also the first point of untested support on the volume profile as well as a 159% increase from the red point of control line.
Every cycle is different, but lets see what plays out. Will capitulation even happen?
交易結束：目標達成:
I'd look to have closed this position as soon as $25.XXK was hit... thinking we may see a little rally here before a possible further capitulation to the 300SMA.