The first thing to take a look at here on the 12h time frame is that you can clearly see we are in a large bear flag. The market has been rather choppy lately on the lower TF's and a few patterns have been invalidated, however this flag is clearly seen on the 1d and 3d as well. Zooming in to the 6h we can take a look deeper into that flag.
Looking here at the 6h chart we can see a few things. There's a possible head and shoulders playing out inside that bear flag from the higher TF. There's also a slight volume divergence from the beginning of that H&S, the neckline is trending slightly upwards as volume decreases. You can also see a bearish cross on the stochastic that may indicate the beginning of the next move down and possible breakdown of the H&S. Should it break down I expect a retest of the neckline and will likely short on failure to break. (which seems likely given current volume). Theoretically, this bear flag could take us as low as 6400ish, however I think that's
評論:
Sorry guys, I didn't realize my thought was cut off there. As I was saying, I don't think that flag will take us all the way down to 6400 quite yet. The preliminary target would be the bottom of that flag, at 7000-7100 as seen in this image here, in addition my thoughts on the next price moves.
評論:
評論:
Currently trading in a triangle/(possible) bull pennant on the 5m, a bullish breakout would bring us above the shoulder line for the H&S and would invalidate it, a bearish breakout would form a double shoulder like the first half of the pattern. Targets are the same, no change in plan yet.