Check out this 4h chart: Pretty clean bounce off that . There was no reason to believe in a full blown recovery, not yet. If this is accurate, I'd expect a continued downtrend. Something like this (see chart). I just am uncertain how low it could go. If the market is continuing to deflate, more and more of the new crowd of mainstream adopters will become disheartened/disillusioned, as their 'investment' x --> 0.
I still think it's possible we are seeing a repeat of, or some similarities to, the 2013/2014 crash.. This would mean a long bear market, bottoming out around 4000. I think this is possible, considering the ferociousness of the last bull run, the number of people that have been burned by this downtrend, loss of confidence, etc. Though I obviously can't know for sure.