BTC - Most likely scenarios

Good afternoon traders,

What a day!

I apologize ahead of time for the messy chart, but "bear" with me, I've had a long night. I'm going to post out all of the possible scenarios I see forming.

Bullish Scenarios:

1) We had a picture perfect ounce off the 200 SMA on daily. This could imply a possible reversal, back towards 9-10k area.

2) We start trading above 8,337 (go up toward 9k) which will create a possible head and shoulders pattern, before then dropping down hard into one of the bearish scenarios listed below.


Bearish Scenarios:

1) 7968 zone collapses, and we form a double bottom at 7564.

2) Head and shoulders formation completes (right shoulder) and we target 7160.

3) Collapse into falling wedge at 6968, hard bounce up.

3) Long bearish winter becomes a reality and we continue downwards into long term bear trend when it meets the 01 fib at 5589.

4) Mid term bear trend intersects with long term trend @ 6100


I'm currently on and off streaming @ www.twitch.tv/cryptocrew explaining these scenarios I see, feel free to join me.


As always if you find this information useful please support me by hitting the like and follow button.

評論:

Looks like we had breakdown, I'm now in scalp mode and will be in and out all day to try to bring my profits back into a more reasonable level, first target 20 EMA

評論:

We should expect consolidation, then a run up towards the 20 EMA, (taking profits there) depending on situation will re-buy or wait for next breakdown, next breakdown I anticipate (if we get our run up here) will be back to 7554, slight consolidation again, then down towards 6900-7100

評論:

For double bottom scenario (in play), we want a pull back towards 20 EMA, then based on the retrace from there, if we then pulled back a second time with a higher high above the first pullback it'd be a safe bet double bottom is confirmed and we go up

評論:

If this zone breaks, double bottom invalidated, if falling wedge fails, it will be utter chaos as it's pure fomo selling. Trade wisely, and do not trade if you cannot exit IMMEDIATELY

評論:

Chaos until 6986 - watch for bounce

交易進行

評論:

Double bottom is STILL valid scenario, can be a max difference of 3%

評論:

評論:

7318 invalidates double bottom

評論:

120 BTC buy wall @ 7320 2 dollars ahead of the double bottom invalidation.

Whales are swimming these waters, watch for a breakdown of that wall or a hold of it

評論:

Down we go, next zone 6986

評論:

評論:

Falling wedge area has been hit as well, but we're currently in an all out panic, so who knows at this point

評論:

Wait for sentiment to change.....and then its off to the moon, 8900-9500-10500 in play once people realize bottoms in, then expect another massive sell off, and a higher low, then range trading for extended period of time

評論:

Looks like it formed a double bottom right off my long term trend channel, look to the 4 hour that closes at 11am for confirmation of double bottom and higher low

評論:

Congress talking about $20 trillion dollar markets in 2 years, unbelievable.

B U L L I S H

評論:

Next target 8579

評論:

Anticipate a sell off towards 7500/7700 over the coming hours, if we break upwards target 9571

評論:

For clarification, target hit and I sold. Waiting for re-buy

評論:

Observe 30 minute / 1 hour / 2 hour stoch.

Currently oversold on 30 minute, if you see the 1 hour curve up, then fairly strong indicator correction over and next impulse to 9571 can begin.

If not, keep looking for the 20/50 EMA buy zones on the hourly. (They change obviously)

評論:

If the 2/3 hour stoch breaks down the 4 hour will too, in which case we'll see a very intense sell off, back towards the low 7s or possibly lower, time will tell!

評論:

Good entry for a scalp, one last push towards 4hr EMA, will either break through or break down completely, I've entered and will evaluate at the 4hr ema point

評論:

We're looking at 0 rejection of the 15 minute, if this fails then time to abandon ship.

評論:

FYI, I'm riding this up if we get that 15 minute crossing above 0 histogram (thats what this trade is pretty much based on) and if it goes below and is not rejected by the 0 histogram thats the queue to exit.

評論:

15 minute rejected, it could still go up but I'm not risking it, I'm up a bunch from today so I exited at a loss.

評論:

targets being updated on stream/discord