The price action between 2014 and 2022 is different, there is no doubt about that.
But look at the moving average (yellow line) of the RSI. It is very similar, almost identical.
There were 6 key moves in the 2014 bull cycle which I highlighted on the chart. There seem to be 6 corresponding key moves for the current cycle as well. The 6th move, which marks a capitulation event, might be about to happen.
In 2014 the RSI broke down from the falling wedge and price declined by 73%. If history repeats and that same move happens today, we end up at about $10K. $10K is a very important level historically. It's acted as support and resistance multiple times.
I'm sceptical that we'll see a 73% crash this time around, since we only need a 30% correction to retest the 200-week MA. But then again the macro landscape today is markedly worse than 2014, so who knows how ugly a capitulation could get.
But look at the moving average (yellow line) of the RSI. It is very similar, almost identical.
There were 6 key moves in the 2014 bull cycle which I highlighted on the chart. There seem to be 6 corresponding key moves for the current cycle as well. The 6th move, which marks a capitulation event, might be about to happen.
In 2014 the RSI broke down from the falling wedge and price declined by 73%. If history repeats and that same move happens today, we end up at about $10K. $10K is a very important level historically. It's acted as support and resistance multiple times.
I'm sceptical that we'll see a 73% crash this time around, since we only need a 30% correction to retest the 200-week MA. But then again the macro landscape today is markedly worse than 2014, so who knows how ugly a capitulation could get.
評論:
Hopefully I was able to help some of you