Bottom Fishing

已更新

A monthly linear scale because most weekly log scale ideas seem to give a hope of a fast reversal recovery. And bottom callers slowly show up.
If Bitcoin makes a weekly reversal within the next two months, then it either becomes an even worse rising wedge or it's the start of bottom fishing events till we reach the true despair price levels.
The monthly MACD shows a massive change in momentum.

On a weekly log scale I see despair price levels within $31'000 to $25'000, simply because those are the weekly log scale bullish trendline mean price levels and confluence with the 200 & 300 SMA. (Check related idea)
For the monthly linear scale levels look at the chart.

Be prepared for the worst and hope for the best.
Those market cycles happen over and over again. Sometimes the model doesn't fit perfectly, like it was in 2017/18 for Bitcoin, but the general psychological states of the market participants never change.

註釋

Same idea but in log scale

註釋

Updated Volume Pattern
For me it's a no-buy till we go below that middle orange trendline.

註釋

I extend the despair range to 23-22k

註釋

I just want to have this saved somewhere.
'Even when your predictions about the future are correct, it doesn't necessarily mean that you'll win.'
youtu.be/jUfCr3hz9FE

註釋

For the records because the original idea doesn't update the indicators.

註釋

Monthly zoomed in MACD pattern

註釋

Pattern update

註釋

pattern update

註釋

Pattern update in original linear idea

註釋

well, now I will start DCA with buys but I still consider it way too early and highly risky yet some for the staking interest will do it.

註釋

Well, there we are. Almost shocking how simple it turned out (again). But what now?
- We either wait for the next MACD Histogram to be white too and then think about a long.
- Or we wait for the MACD Histrogram to turn deep red and then think about a long on the next white histrogram bar.
- Or we simply wait till it shows an obvious momentum shift, which will be really late on a monthly basis.