• In reference to my Four Seasons model of BTCUSD, each BTCUSD can be subdivided into 4 "seasons". Besides the reiterating and alternating volatility in each “season”, there are several repeating macro trends (cf linked analysis).
• One reiterative macro trend is that BTCUSD has always (albeit with a small sample size) retested the 0.382 of its “Summer” phase prior to entering “Autumn” (cf Sep’13 and Sep’17).
• *If* history were any indication, and *if* we have had seen the top and bottom of the “Summer” phase, then the recent low of $41.4K can be a seen as a retest of the 0.382 $42.6K (delta of 2.2%).
• *If* the Four Seasons Model holds, besides indicating the end of the “Summer” phase soon, we have also seen what the bottom of the “Winter” phase might look like (historical bottoms have been above the 0.382 of the “Summer” phase).
• One reiterative macro trend is that BTCUSD has always (albeit with a small sample size) retested the 0.382 of its “Summer” phase prior to entering “Autumn” (cf Sep’13 and Sep’17).
• *If* history were any indication, and *if* we have had seen the top and bottom of the “Summer” phase, then the recent low of $41.4K can be a seen as a retest of the 0.382 $42.6K (delta of 2.2%).
• *If* the Four Seasons Model holds, besides indicating the end of the “Summer” phase soon, we have also seen what the bottom of the “Winter” phase might look like (historical bottoms have been above the 0.382 of the “Summer” phase).
評論:
If the model holds, we are currently witnessing the bottom at $42,575 +-10%.
評論:
$42,575 +-10% amounts to a min of $38,318.
