GramTooNoob
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9k BTC Possibility? H&S forming

BITFINEX:BTCUSD   比特幣 / 美元
Currently H&S appears to be forming on higher timeframe. We will see a drop here to 14k             to complete the "Head", a small re-bounce up then down again to complete right shoulder. If this chart plays out, we are looking at 9k BTC! Then consolidation through Jan 2018 for start of new bull market!
評論: On 5 mins timeframe, currently at wave 4 pull back potentially to 16k before falling down into buy zone 1 at 14k +/- This will stall for a while. Then go up to 18k to form the right shoulder before finally going down to 9k.

Good Luck and Stay Safe!
評論: Bounced off 13k to complete the head. Which means, we are going to see a drop further than 9k, should a right shoulder form now.
評論: As we know more, possibilities narrow down. If we go into consolidation here, we will know correction ended and we will take in Jan 2018 to new all time high.

But if BTC doesn't consolidate and instantly goes up on a rally here trying to break 18k, then we know this H&S is true.
評論: Ok, it just went down without the H&S. I forgot that no H&S was not needed to complete this correction and that was the trap of higher Elliot Waves. We are seeing potentially 8k. Maybe a very sharp dip into 6k before bouncing back hard.

Whoever went long on that right shoulder got trapped really hard.
評論: There is some possibility that we have actually only just completed the head for H&S instead of previously thought. If this is a Elliot wave 2 that we are on now, the right shoulder will form. IF only, there are too many conflicting signals.
評論: Yup its going down without even completing that right shoulder. Lots of wave counts have changed due to influence from higher degree Elliot wave. We are now on track to a 2 years bull market correction.

Note that it is still correction, not a bear market until we break below 6k.
評論: This current rally from the 10k bounce should end a little below 15k before the dump happen. Those who got trapped will get a chance to offload on this relief run up.

On high timeframe, some of you might see it as a double bottom using the bottom 10k bottom from Dec 10th. There is possibility for that, but it would really be weird to have a double bottom in the middle of uptrend wave. Those are normally form after the end of a downtrend/correction and we have only just started the downtrend on a higher timeframe.

What I believe we see here is something interesting. Instead of a "fake" bottom at wave 2 which would have made the H&S should clear, we are seeing this "fake" bottom at wave 4 instead. The wave 5 dump would be spectacular if this plays out. The fastest dump record in the guinness book of records, much faster than the one we saw from 14.5k to 10k yesterday.
評論: Instead of ABC, it formed a ABCDE wedge inside wave 4 and it looks like BTC is losing steam now. We are going to see one pull back to the neckline after it break thru as part of a rescue effort for the trapped sailors before we go down hard.

Technical on 15 mins MACD shows a lower and lower high and 30 mins MF confirms that price is no longer supported with a very sharp dip. Potentially a lost of steam here to match the ABCDE patterns =)
評論: ABCDE wedge is showing bullish signs. Unclear if this is bullish or bearish wedge. Care for trap.
評論: Rescue effort went up to 15k as previously anticipated. We are waiting for a few more candles down to confirm a 12345 downwards movement pattern. Neckline is still estimated at 13k. This fall will complete a very tiny right shoulder for the H&S to become true.
評論: Sub wave structure suggest that breakout was false, and it's not a symmetrical triangle. Currently in a rising bearish wedge. For now, we can only wait.

For BTC to really show positive sign, we need convincing break through above 17k. Otherwise, the risk of a H&S remains. Interesting how TA can change but still go back to the initial projection.
評論: Bearish Wedge broken out at 14700 after failing resistance break at 15000. The rest you guys already know so I won't be updating this idea anymore. Good luck, and stay safe.

8k may not be true bottom as there is a chance this is just wave A of a very high degree wave 4. Whether that will influence is simply hypothetical. Absolute bottom in my opinion is 5k because wave 4 cannot go beyond peak of wave 1.That is an idea for another day. For now, I have done what I can to help everyone.

Accepting donation for beer and pizza if you made/save money from this trade =) I stayed up for 3 days and i am so dead. TA is not free, pls appreciate the hard work of others.

BTC: 16VhzB59twANDvinuWzGJqdNWor9b9Uym2
LTC: LgegoiHGwN8UmoobmSn69nrDU3fvjTuudp
ETH: 0xA21844A23d6C18384101E67313C1260449F5cbf2
評論: Watch out for reversal, bull power is surprisingly strong. Big battle for 14800 resistance now. If that break upwards it will be a very big short squeeze and downtrend reversal for BTC.

Bears need to watch out here very carefully.
評論: We might test 15k again here, potentially we are still inside the rising wedge. If so, ABCD wave has completed, just need E wave to touch resistance line again and we should go down. Assuming no strong bull volume to force a squeeze above.
評論: We broken out of the adjusted bearish rising wedge at 14500. We may see a pullback attempt to support line to save the bull run. If not, I believe this is indeed the downwards fall. TA is always changing in real time as the market decides, but the overall trend often remains the same as shown here.
評論: The rising wedge expanded again for the 3rd time, but triangles cannot keep expanding like this. At this point, there are 2 possibilities either it touch 15k to complete the E wave that didn't complete before, or it breaks upwards as a bear trap.

This happened before with IOTA where it just hangs there at the resistance line, refusing to go down again and again until it breaks thru, forcing big short squeeze. I recommend to consider both possibilities at this time. Its strange to see so much buying power when the H&S is so obvious at the top. If this wedge expanding another time, it most likely will just become a upwards channel.

Volume doesn't seems high but still suspicious. With so many investors and traders staying at the sideline undecided. A breakthrough above 15k will see alot of FOMO set in. 14.2k is a strange resistance line. Some are seeing an inverse H&S on the 15 mins chart but that timeframe is too short to say an overall trend change. There are still 16k and 17k resistance line to test for a potential H&S setup.
評論: I had to sleep, sry for lack of update. But its going down nicely now in what appears to be the completion of a sub impulse wave 1 within the wave 5 down. Neckline is expected to be at 13k, with another potential neckline at 10.5k. depending on how you view it as a flat H&S or a diagonal H&S which is slopping downwards instead of upwards as I originally intended.

A slopping downwards H&S suggest a fall into 2k but Elliot waves denies that possibility which means that below 5k will put us into a bear market and no longer a correction. As current wave counts do hold, I am going to be optimistic and say 8.5k for this bottom for now with a potential further correction to 5k (hypothetical) .
評論: I have updated my prediction to 6k BTC in a new idea. I realized something new after I got some sleep and my brain is finally working again.
H&S What targets are you setting?
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GramTooNoob JohnWayneWeb
@JohnWayneWeb, For this H&S, the highest possible bottom is 9.4k and the lowest possible bottom is a high 6k due to overselling panic before quickly bouncing back to 8.5k as the supported bottom. I did list them in my explanations. Do not leave your short open all the way to the bottom btw, there will be pull back and fake bottoms on the way down.
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JohnWayneWeb GramTooNoob
@GramTooNoob, This is a great guiding light! What time do you think this is going to drop?!?! Soonish? I am about to start driving for 12 hours. Not optimal. not at all!!! but i just have to get make one buy... the right buy! Appreciate the insight!
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GramTooNoob JohnWayneWeb
@JohnWayneWeb, this wave down is normally very fast. I would say, another 6 - 18 hours we should be at the bottom. This depends how long bulls and bears fight over the 10k support. But no rush, after such a major correction, a long consolidation is expected as market rebuild trust. It will not shoot off to 20k right away from the bottom =) Bull run 2018 will probably start in mid Jan 2018.
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JohnWayneWeb GramTooNoob
@GramTooNoob, amazing! I'll guess i'll have my co pilot just keep tabs. Any big big tall tell signs i could make sure to watch for? Other then a tall red candle? :) You think we will bounce a few times off of it? We only hit 11k for a split the other day.
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GramTooNoob JohnWayneWeb
@JohnWayneWeb, That big counce off 10k support was due to end of correction A and start of wave B. Ppl buy into wave B believing its the resumption of the bull run, but always a trap. Wave C bottom will not have such behavior, market will have minimal volume. Atm, there are still analysis suggestion possible 2k BTC or 5k BTC, so people will be watching out for bear market instead of a bull market.
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GramTooNoob JohnWayneWeb
@JohnWayneWeb, if you want exact confirmation. The most obvious sign is a symmetrical triangle but whether that breaks up or down is a question mark. A point of entry near breakout point would be the best choice.
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JohnWayneWeb GramTooNoob
@GramTooNoob, amazing! All still looks on par? And on schedule? Your timeline has been on point so far. You still shooting for 5? Or plan on to play it as it comes in low a few times? 8k , 5k , etc? Still driving!
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GramTooNoob JohnWayneWeb
@JohnWayneWeb, its off schedule atm. there's a chance that the neckline is indeed lower and we are only going to complete the right shoulder now. I expect a double / triple bottom to be form as my sign of entry instead of catching this falling knife. The risk of a panic market sell off remains as we continue in a confused state.
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JohnWayneWeb GramTooNoob
@GramTooNoob, Yea... that falling knife has been pretty scary of when and where... so you thinking around 12.5k? (maybe set it a little above to beat the others? :)

Thats what i am seeing from your above?
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