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BTCUSDT | Long with two scenarios

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BINANCE:BTCUSDT   Bitcoin / TetherUS
Bitcoin fluctuations within the marked rectangle are taking place as a side motion. We have two scenarios:
1- Correct to the floor of the rectangle and then move up to the ceiling of the rectangle
2- Exit from the floor of the rectangle and correct to the red line and then move up to the roof of the rectangle
In my opinion, the first scenario is more likely.
But if according to either of these two scenarios the price reaches the rectangular ceiling, there are two other scenarios:
1- Exit from the rectangular roof to the target 59475
2- Reduce the price again to the floor of the rectangle
what is your opinion?
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