UPDATE OCT 22 => And now what ?

2022年10月27日Hello everyone ! :)

In the last few weeks, I stayed out of the market due its range position, now its time to review the analysis carried out in June.


1. I am happy to see that the overlapping strategy works: the BTC stayed on the range (last white line) which the was indicator for all the "things" written in the label
2. To recap, the pair saw a growth, which was mandatory for the recovery from the first week of June's crash, (in fact it reached the 50% of it). The uptrend ended in mid august, break of trend line.
3. the downtrend kept going till the resistance zone. which was predictable thanks to the double bottom on 5th and 12th July (one week apart).
4. the range position last for over one month and half and never creates a new LowerLow, nor liquidity nether volume one ( means that none shadow went below the18th June one, which was the last LowerLow )

All these are signals for a future recovery of the crypto, even if the light blue lines evidenced are other to stoical ranges, even more, the red zone is a POI and is another overlapping zone as the white line mentioned above

We have to carry out a new analysis to see the new targets with these updated datas.
in my opinion the future mostly possible scenarios are :
A) default of bitcoin ( if btc reaches light blue or red zone ) : out of this market for ever
B) since the bubble burst , we can aspect a more consistent volume in BTC, slower but more serious and substantial growth of the pair.
C ) another volatile scenario, which popped the coin to the inefficiency ares (lines red and purple zones), if the investor see this as a new opportunity to invest in the currency.

in conclusion
The first scenario is of course the worst, if as me, you undertake a long position and see the crypto as a real alternative payment method, not just the trend of the moment.
The second, is what I hope for actually. Set aside the fact that hope and irrational emotion are not allowed in this sector, I really waiting for a more consistence market, I believe that the bubble cleans up all "frivolous" investors.
The third, would let me go out of this market, since for me, crypto can potentially works as any other market. Using their nature, decentralisation and volatility as a strength and main characteristic for which they differ (I mean, as in 1600s people who's introduced banknotes instead of monetary coins were seen as "crazy", as well as for those who now think that cryptocurrencies can bring added value to the nowadays economy )

I'd really LOVE that anybody who reads this, would tell me his-her own ideas about it, i'm starving for a community to share my opinion with, feel free to share and comment pls.

thank you <3
- M