🔥 Bitcoin On The Edge Of The Abyss: One Final Capitulation

Me and many other analysts have been looking at Bitcoin bear-flag pattern over the course of the last couple of weeks.
Where BTC appeared relatively bullish not even two weeks ago, we're now standing on the edge of a potentially very deep capitulation.

Bear-flag patterns are classically bearish continuation patterns, so it's more likely than not that BTC will fall through the support and at least retest the $19k area.

As seen on the chart below (log scale), I think that (in the case of a bearish break out) we will fall much further down than that.

The $12k - $15k area is of great importance because it's 1) at the multi-year support, as seen above. And 2) it corresponds well with the idea that BTC has to fall >80% from top > bottom, like it has always done before.

On the other hand, we can even fall further than that. A few months ago I discussed the possibility of a move below $10k. See the analysis below for my worst-case scenario.

In the end, all will depend on whether the current bear flag pattern will break on the bearish side. If we see some kind of big reversal in the coming week, chances are that the immediate danger for a final capitulation has been averted. For now.

評論:

To add to the above, the stock markets are showing a similar pattern to the 2008 crash. A further fall of the stock markets will most certainly mean that crypto will see another capitulation.

See below for an in-depth analysis.