This week everybody is expecting the Japanese national GDP. The forecast is +0,5% QoQ or +2,1% YoY. Let’s try to understand if the forecast is realistic or not.
GDP could be counted by summarizing consumption, trade balance, investments and governmental spending.
Looking at Japanese retail sales (consumption) YoY for the 1-st quarter you may see that it is slowing down.
Trade balance in January nosedived. In February and March the situation became better – at least we saw the surplus. Anyway, two quarters’ data is quite similar.
Consequently, we may expect that the GDP could be lower than the fact in the previous 4-th quarter.
Next week is important for Canada too. The real estate statistics is being published on Monday and Thursday. At the beginning of the week we will see Housing Starts and Building Permits for May. On Thursday new housing price index is released. The higher is the real estate market – the better.
Technical analysis
On daily time frame we see that CAD broke the trend line up. Simultaneously 23,6% Fibo correction was broken. EMA-9 reversed and started growing.
MACD lines intersected. Parabolic SAR reversed too.
SUMMARY: We expect that the movement up may continue. The targets for CAD/JPY are 81.647; 82.165.
GDP could be counted by summarizing consumption, trade balance, investments and governmental spending.
Looking at Japanese retail sales (consumption) YoY for the 1-st quarter you may see that it is slowing down.
Trade balance in January nosedived. In February and March the situation became better – at least we saw the surplus. Anyway, two quarters’ data is quite similar.
Consequently, we may expect that the GDP could be lower than the fact in the previous 4-th quarter.
Next week is important for Canada too. The real estate statistics is being published on Monday and Thursday. At the beginning of the week we will see Housing Starts and Building Permits for May. On Thursday new housing price index is released. The higher is the real estate market – the better.
Technical analysis
On daily time frame we see that CAD broke the trend line up. Simultaneously 23,6% Fibo correction was broken. EMA-9 reversed and started growing.
MACD lines intersected. Parabolic SAR reversed too.
SUMMARY: We expect that the movement up may continue. The targets for CAD/JPY are 81.647; 82.165.