The "big" news over the weekend was widely expected, if you ask anyone outside of the core they will all know $DB is a screaming short. It has been for years and is going to be the Lehman equivalent of this business cycle. We have been selling DB for literally years, a broken system with everything thrown at it and nothing has been achieved.
The backdrop is a weak fundamental picture, these challenges are not going away for DB and the measured cost cuts are not going to aid on the top-line. The spread of the 10s over 2s in Germany inversion is when you get extreme negative economic conditions, we are not far away from this now. The massive increase in European Central Bank balance sheet is just not working and is a broken system.
Sentiment indicators never stay high, once the ECB steps away for a short-period of time they collapse... DB is a textbook example of this as Europe's largest bank. They make their money on the spread between short and long term rates for deposits and loads on the retail side, and on the IB side via corporate deals, M&A etc. The biggest bank in Europe cannot make money, and will not make money again.
Best of luck those continuing to work the sell-side in DB.
The backdrop is a weak fundamental picture, these challenges are not going away for DB and the measured cost cuts are not going to aid on the top-line. The spread of the 10s over 2s in Germany inversion is when you get extreme negative economic conditions, we are not far away from this now. The massive increase in European Central Bank balance sheet is just not working and is a broken system.
Sentiment indicators never stay high, once the ECB steps away for a short-period of time they collapse... DB is a textbook example of this as Europe's largest bank. They make their money on the spread between short and long term rates for deposits and loads on the retail side, and on the IB side via corporate deals, M&A etc. The biggest bank in Europe cannot make money, and will not make money again.
Best of luck those continuing to work the sell-side in DB.
評論:
A massacre in the making here..
