Dow Jones DJI
The Dow was making a little continuation pattern as the last
session ended. It still looks vulnerable whilst trapped within
the pattern but it's sloping downwards so it still has a chance
of breaking higher later.
Whatever, it has to break above the upper small falling
parallel to follow long back to 24879 initially and then on a
break above here by 20 points or so to 24967-25078 range
again.
On downside it's likely to fall away to 24488 and when this
fails down through the support lines towards 23822 again.
Seasonality In Major Markets
We now have a seasonal pull beginning to work in opposition to price. 'Sell in May and go away,
come back on St Leger day' is an old stock market adage in London and by extension the US for a reason.
Up to 2015, in the 65 years since 1950, the US stock market has returned just 0.3pc on average between May and October.
That compares with a 7.5pc average return from November to April. This significant difference is the justification for the
age-old adage. St Leger is the day in September when the horse race of that name is run. It is the traditional end of the
season, short-hand for being out of the market during the less profitable summer months and fully invested in the winter.
This pattern of seasonality is very much present but not apparent every single year. That would be too much to expect.
Nevertheless, it's very much there, even if it does hide sometimes inside the noise.
The Dow was making a little continuation pattern as the last
session ended. It still looks vulnerable whilst trapped within
the pattern but it's sloping downwards so it still has a chance
of breaking higher later.
Whatever, it has to break above the upper small falling
parallel to follow long back to 24879 initially and then on a
break above here by 20 points or so to 24967-25078 range
again.
On downside it's likely to fall away to 24488 and when this
fails down through the support lines towards 23822 again.
Seasonality In Major Markets
We now have a seasonal pull beginning to work in opposition to price. 'Sell in May and go away,
come back on St Leger day' is an old stock market adage in London and by extension the US for a reason.
Up to 2015, in the 65 years since 1950, the US stock market has returned just 0.3pc on average between May and October.
That compares with a 7.5pc average return from November to April. This significant difference is the justification for the
age-old adage. St Leger is the day in September when the horse race of that name is run. It is the traditional end of the
season, short-hand for being out of the market during the less profitable summer months and fully invested in the winter.
This pattern of seasonality is very much present but not apparent every single year. That would be too much to expect.
Nevertheless, it's very much there, even if it does hide sometimes inside the noise.
評論:
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評論:
Dow Jones
Testing only minor support now and despite fact it can counter rally some it should fall away to 24184 later.
The real bounce should come here if it's to come at all.
Any subsequent break below here by more than 20 points or so will trigger next short back to 23822 and then 23613.
Testing only minor support now and despite fact it can counter rally some it should fall away to 24184 later.
The real bounce should come here if it's to come at all.
Any subsequent break below here by more than 20 points or so will trigger next short back to 23822 and then 23613.