This is the most important and the most difficult thing to understand. In my humble opinion in order to figure out what is the highest probability it is necessary to eliminate noise. The yellow 5 period average seems to indicate that there is a wedge/ triangle pattern. The other possibility is a horizontal channel. Either way I think RSI on the USD will show the way forward. I have shown a number of possible paths the USD could take. A potential XABCD pattern. The levels I see as being hugely important are in the mid 60's and the mid 80's. Obviously this will make a bigger difference in the smaller timeframes depending on which way it goes. The adage is that all you can do is trade the trend and or the channel. In conclusion I say be tactical and take short timeframes. When RSI is falling go short the USD by investing in gold. When RSI is rising buy the USD and invest in short term treasuries or short duration bonds. Therefore hedging your outcome.