2024-12-23 - priceactiontds - daily update - dax
Good Evening and I hope you are well.
tl;dr
dax futures - Neutral. Bears defended the Globex gap and market stayed below the lower bear trend line, which we broke below on Thursday. Very good for the bears but since we opened and closed near Friday’s close, market is in balance for now. Bears need to break below 20000 and bulls above 20150. Clear support and resistance, so play the range or wait for a breakout.
comment: Let’s try not to extrapolate more from today’s price action than there was. Open was 40 points below Friday’s close and US session closed 10 points above the EU open.
current market cycle: trading range
key levels: 19800 - 20200
bull case: Bulls stopped the selling near the 50% retracement of Friday’s bull leg. Until they get a 1h bar close above 20150, the market is as neutral as it gets. Above 20150 there probably won’t be any resistance until 20250ish or even 20300.
Invalidation is below 19970.
bear case: Bears have going for them that they kept it below the channel we broke below from and below Friday’s high, which means we have an open Globex gap. Problem they have is that they tried 3 times to get below 19990 today and failed. Now market has made two credible higher lows and bears can not hold short once we get above 20140.
Invalidation is above 20140.
short term: Neutral around 20050. Very bullish above 20150 and bearish only below 19980.
medium-long term from 2024-12-22: Any short near 20000 is reasonable if you can hold for another 1000 points higher. 17000 is much more likely than 21000 though. My first target for the next months is 19000, followed by 17700ish and ultimately down to 16000-16300 in 2025.
current swing trade: None
trade of the day: Selling 20060 and buying 20000 was good for much more trades than you should take.
tl;dr
dax futures - Neutral. Bears defended the Globex gap and market stayed below the lower bear trend line, which we broke below on Thursday. Very good for the bears but since we opened and closed near Friday’s close, market is in balance for now. Bears need to break below 20000 and bulls above 20150. Clear support and resistance, so play the range or wait for a breakout.
comment: Let’s try not to extrapolate more from today’s price action than there was. Open was 40 points below Friday’s close and US session closed 10 points above the EU open.
current market cycle: trading range
key levels: 19800 - 20200
bull case: Bulls stopped the selling near the 50% retracement of Friday’s bull leg. Until they get a 1h bar close above 20150, the market is as neutral as it gets. Above 20150 there probably won’t be any resistance until 20250ish or even 20300.
Invalidation is below 19970.
bear case: Bears have going for them that they kept it below the channel we broke below from and below Friday’s high, which means we have an open Globex gap. Problem they have is that they tried 3 times to get below 19990 today and failed. Now market has made two credible higher lows and bears can not hold short once we get above 20140.
Invalidation is above 20140.
short term: Neutral around 20050. Very bullish above 20150 and bearish only below 19980.
medium-long term from 2024-12-22: Any short near 20000 is reasonable if you can hold for another 1000 points higher. 17000 is much more likely than 21000 though. My first target for the next months is 19000, followed by 17700ish and ultimately down to 16000-16300 in 2025.
current swing trade: None
trade of the day: Selling 20060 and buying 20000 was good for much more trades than you should take.
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