1. Market Structure:
The chart shows GBP/JPY in a bearish trend, which is apparent from the price's decline over the past few weeks. The price seems to be approaching a potential support zone, as indicated by the horizontal lines. You are likely considering either a potential bounce from this level or a continuation of the bearish trend.
2. Trade Setup:
Buy Plan (Upward Arrow):
You seem to anticipate that the price may first move upward after reaching the current support level.
The first target would likely be the area around 192.83 - 194.86 (marked by the purple resistance zone).
This is likely a retracement or bounce play as the market is oversold on the RSI indicator, with RSI hovering near 38, which may indicate a reversal or pullback to the upside.
Sell Plan (Downward Arrow):
Once the price reaches the resistance zone near 192-194, the sell plan would come into play if the resistance holds.
The second downward arrow indicates a potential major selloff after this resistance, possibly down to the 179.87 level.
This looks like a continuation of the broader bearish trend after a corrective move up.
3. Key Levels:
Support Level: Around 184.83, which appears to be the level where you anticipate a bounce for the buy entry.
Resistance Level: Between 192.83 - 194.86, which is the region where you would look to either take profit on the long position or set up a short trade.
Profit Targets:
Long trade profit target: Around 192-194.
Short trade profit target: Near 181.93 or lower, around 179.87.
4. Indicators:
RSI: The RSI shows an oversold condition, indicating a possible temporary relief rally, supporting the idea of a short-term bounce before continuing the downtrend.
Conclusion:
Your plan seems to involve two potential plays:
Buying around 184.83, aiming for a retracement toward the resistance around 192.83-194.86.
Selling at the resistance level, aiming for a larger bearish move toward 181.93 or even down to 179.87 if the price fails to break through the resistance.
This strategy takes into account both a short-term reversal and the broader bearish trend.
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