GBPUSD, H4

There are 2 scenarios here.


first, we establish that on H4, we're in a downtrend.
secondly, there is a channel boundary with which price has rallied for a long time.

SCENARIO 1
our first bias with a probability of 70% is for price to break line A to 1.35XX level (23.6fib) and heads on to line B (38.2fib) before coming back to line A there forming a H&S pattern. Then the bulls set in.

SCENARIO 2
we have a downward trend and if price makes a retest of line A, we may be looking at going short until the broken trendline marked beneath.