I'm a gold bug
I went long last year to catch the move to ath
The moves since then have been somewhat perplexing in an 'inflationary environment'
As followers will know i believe inflation is indeed transitory
In this chart we are looking at GOLD pa but comparing with two inflation markers: breakeven inflation and inflation protected bonds
You can see gold generally moves with these
And i believe gold has stalled because inflation has peaked
The geometry on the gold chart shown here means we will revisit circa 1500 for gold in a deflationary move
It's a buy when it breaks the falling wedge upwards OR if you have retrace targets
I could see gold as low as 1k but then the bull move is lost, i'd see a wick to 1300 range then resume the bull move
Gold will do well with negative rates and further qe
In the end we get true inflation but this isn't it imho
GRI 2022
NOT TRADING ADVICE
I went long last year to catch the move to ath
The moves since then have been somewhat perplexing in an 'inflationary environment'
As followers will know i believe inflation is indeed transitory
In this chart we are looking at GOLD pa but comparing with two inflation markers: breakeven inflation and inflation protected bonds
You can see gold generally moves with these
And i believe gold has stalled because inflation has peaked
The geometry on the gold chart shown here means we will revisit circa 1500 for gold in a deflationary move
It's a buy when it breaks the falling wedge upwards OR if you have retrace targets
I could see gold as low as 1k but then the bull move is lost, i'd see a wick to 1300 range then resume the bull move
Gold will do well with negative rates and further qe
In the end we get true inflation but this isn't it imho
GRI 2022
NOT TRADING ADVICE
評論:
libertystreeteconomi...ven-inflation-curve/