GOLD ANALYSIS 10/07/2024

7月10日

Analysis of the GOLD market using Elliott Wave Theory and other technical indicators:

Elliott Wave Analysis

Wave Count:

The chart displays two sets of Elliott Waves, labeled in blue for clarity.
The first complete wave cycle (1)-(5) appears to have finished, suggesting a potential correction.
A second wave cycle is in progress, with (1)-(5) potentially completing soon.
Fibonacci Extensions and Retracements:

Key Fibonacci retracement levels are marked, such as 0.382, 0.5, and 0.618, which are typically used to identify support and resistance levels.
The 1.618 and 2.618 extensions mark potential target areas for the end of impulse waves. These levels often act as strong resistance points.
Notable Fibonacci levels: 0.382 at approximately 2370.86, 0.5 at 2376.06, and 0.618 at 2385.06.

Support and Resistance:

The red horizontal lines around 2395.20 mark a significant resistance area.
The lower horizontal levels indicate support zones that might come into play if a corrective wave ensues.

Potential Scenarios:

If the price breaks above the resistance at 2395.20, it could head towards the next Fibonacci extension targets at 2419.86 and 2463.66.
A failure to break resistance might lead to a retracement towards support levels around 2312.47 or 2323.78.
RSI (Relative Strength Index)
The RSI is currently at 74.25, indicating overbought conditions.
An RSI above 70 typically suggests that the asset might be overvalued, which could lead to a price correction.
Monitoring the RSI for a drop below 70 might confirm the start of a corrective wave.

Trade Recommendations

Long Position:

Consider entering a long position if the price breaks above 2395.20 with strong volume, aiming for the 1.618 extension at 2419.86 and possibly 2463.66.
Use a stop-loss slightly below the breakout level to manage risk.

Short Position:

If the price fails to break the 2395.20 resistance and shows signs of reversal, consider entering a short position.
Target support levels around 2323.78 or 2312.47, with a stop-loss above the recent high to manage risk.

Conclusion
The GOLD market is at a critical juncture, with potential for both upside continuation and downside correction. Keeping an eye on the key resistance at 2395.20 and the RSI indicator will provide clues for the next market direction. Trade decisions should be based on clear breakouts or rejections from these levels, with appropriate risk management strategies in place.