chikinjoe

Gold looking bullish

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TVC:GOLD   黃金差價合約(美元/盎司)
Gold has been trading sideways for the past few years, and I think we finally have the market conditions for it to *shine*. It was very overextended during the run-up in 2020. Once it broke the 20 w moving average it could never sustainably stay above it. Things were looking really bad when it broke through the 100 week moving average and fell below some pretty key support levels for a few weeks (yellow line). However, it came back up above it acting like a spring in a wyckoff accumulation pattern. It broke back above the 20 week and 100 w and then came back for a confirmation retest. The MACD looks like it may kiss, and altogether suggesting that there is a higher probability that gold makes a run for the ATH. If you look at the difference in MACD back in May 2022, there was a definitive cross on the MACD suggesting it was going lower. I'm not sure if cup and handle patterns take a decade to play out, but if you 1) look at the move from 2018 to the ATH and sideways consolidation as a bull flag and 2) the cup and handle pattern starting around 2012 to 2023, both price targets are very similar. Entry at the 20w moving average and a ~5 reward to risk ratio.
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