Fundamental analysis: Gold is currently being rejected just above the Higher High’s trendline of the Weekly chart’s (#1W) healthy Ascending Channel that started with the February #27 Lower High’s Upper zone. Within that Channel, the Price-action always tested the Lower line of channel after Upper band rejection, so assuming no further corrections (and Bond Yields on parabolic downtrend), I don't see why this Hourly 4 chart’s break won't get repeated and result as #2,052.80 psychological benchmark test. Hourly 4 chart’s former Triple Top zone is already invalidated, and last time similar scenario occurred, Gold soared more than #65 points afterwards (December #13 - December #27 sequence). #2,042.80 - #2,052.80 would be a fair estimate for current sequence. Gold has delivered very Bullish formation and current #2,010.80 first Support line was just Stop-loss hunt to liquidate as many Traders ahead of the major move in continuation towards #2,052.80 benchmark. Rising Volume is indication that many retail Traders are attempting to Sell Gold or every Top that Gold delivers, however Selling Gold on such Bullish Fundamental bias contains huge risk. #2,010.80 is first Support and test-and-break can fill #2,000.80 pressure point, on the other side #2,027.80 is first Resistance for the fractal and break of can extend the sequence and add heavy Buying pressure towards #2,042.80 - #2,052.80 Resistance zone.
Technical analysis: The inability to get above the local Higher High's peak extension on the Daily chart along with the sharp slide on Bond Yields, are putting Gold under pressure again. At the same time Bond Yields (on a # -8.27%) has made a new Bottom towards the #52-Week Low's. Gold is on an interesting Technical fractal on the Hourly 4 chart. The dominant pattern was a clear Ascending Channel since April #3 Bottom. However, interesting variance on December #28, the Hourly 4 RSI was ascending, being on Higher High’s, which was near pricing the Bearish divergence with the actual Spot Price-action which is on Lower High’s and Higher High’s. I have spotted the exact same sequence on July #8 - #16 fractal, where Gold was within Rectangle, engaged the aggressive decline, then started the recovery with more than #100 points. The RSI was then descending, while the Price-action made three Lower Low’s on the bottom trendline of the Descending Channel, which Technically (if Gold repeat the mentioned cycle) could engage the decline and hit #2,000.80 pressure point, then #100 points aggressive uptrend towards #2,100.80 psychological barrier. That suggests that Gold may be pricing a Bottom here (temporary or not) and using #2,000.80 Support line as an viable rejection point. It is important to note that if #2,000.80 psychological benchmark breaks, Gold can fill #1,991.80 contact point within first Hours of the break.
My position: My yesterday's Buying order triggered #2,014.80 Stop-loss (#2,023.80 - #2,014.80), however I did a re-Buy exactly on #2,010.80 towards #2,020.80 and covered my loss instantly within the same session and now I remain without any positions. Those who decide to Trade today's session, do not expect much from it, just side Swings on both sides as market configuration will remain the same all the way towards NFP announcement throughout yesterday's session. Patience is required and remaining without the order is the best decision to make for the session.
Technical analysis: The inability to get above the local Higher High's peak extension on the Daily chart along with the sharp slide on Bond Yields, are putting Gold under pressure again. At the same time Bond Yields (on a # -8.27%) has made a new Bottom towards the #52-Week Low's. Gold is on an interesting Technical fractal on the Hourly 4 chart. The dominant pattern was a clear Ascending Channel since April #3 Bottom. However, interesting variance on December #28, the Hourly 4 RSI was ascending, being on Higher High’s, which was near pricing the Bearish divergence with the actual Spot Price-action which is on Lower High’s and Higher High’s. I have spotted the exact same sequence on July #8 - #16 fractal, where Gold was within Rectangle, engaged the aggressive decline, then started the recovery with more than #100 points. The RSI was then descending, while the Price-action made three Lower Low’s on the bottom trendline of the Descending Channel, which Technically (if Gold repeat the mentioned cycle) could engage the decline and hit #2,000.80 pressure point, then #100 points aggressive uptrend towards #2,100.80 psychological barrier. That suggests that Gold may be pricing a Bottom here (temporary or not) and using #2,000.80 Support line as an viable rejection point. It is important to note that if #2,000.80 psychological benchmark breaks, Gold can fill #1,991.80 contact point within first Hours of the break.
My position: My yesterday's Buying order triggered #2,014.80 Stop-loss (#2,023.80 - #2,014.80), however I did a re-Buy exactly on #2,010.80 towards #2,020.80 and covered my loss instantly within the same session and now I remain without any positions. Those who decide to Trade today's session, do not expect much from it, just side Swings on both sides as market configuration will remain the same all the way towards NFP announcement throughout yesterday's session. Patience is required and remaining without the order is the best decision to make for the session.
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- Few other un-official channels are not mine, they are copies using my real information (impersonating me and my work / identity) so keep that in mind and beware of those.
