If earnings beat is baked into price, then $HD goes down
Just because last time price sold down after earnings, does not mean it will happen again.
What I see is that price is trying to close above upper downtrend line but 20sma is still below 200sma. Also yesterday price opened at the line and dropped. 316-318 should hold as resistance for a pullback into yellow oval.
The 30m chart leans bullish for now, because 20ma and price are over 200ma. Thus I am suggesting a counter-trend swing trade. Buy fewer contracts and be comfortable to hold. Trade design uses 30m chart, which shows downside targets of 305, 300, 200sma (296-295).
When you enter close to resistance/supply, then stop losses are close to buy price. This is one reason I enjoy counter-trend trades. Even better, put contracts cost relatively less when they are bought before the downtrend momentum begins (IV is lower).
My trade: I bought 11/25 305P for 3.42 when stock was ~315.70.
What I see is that price is trying to close above upper downtrend line but 20sma is still below 200sma. Also yesterday price opened at the line and dropped. 316-318 should hold as resistance for a pullback into yellow oval.
The 30m chart leans bullish for now, because 20ma and price are over 200ma. Thus I am suggesting a counter-trend swing trade. Buy fewer contracts and be comfortable to hold. Trade design uses 30m chart, which shows downside targets of 305, 300, 200sma (296-295).
When you enter close to resistance/supply, then stop losses are close to buy price. This is one reason I enjoy counter-trend trades. Even better, put contracts cost relatively less when they are bought before the downtrend momentum begins (IV is lower).
My trade: I bought 11/25 305P for 3.42 when stock was ~315.70.
評論:
CORRECTION - Put contract cost $2.42
交易結束：目標達成:
Puts were sold Tuesday afternoon and at Wed. open - The idea worked and after a choppy nothing day, price closed over the yellow downtrend line. If markets rise over the next 2 weeks, which I think they will, HD may rise to 320 fast and then 330.