Italy - 3rd Largest Economy in the EU

Italy 40 Index - IT40

Made up of 40 of the largest companies in the Italian equity market the Borsa Italiana, the IT40 gives us an idea of how the 3rd largest economy in Europe is performing.

The Chart
- 22 month cycles
- 22 months increasing and then decreasing
- Based on the pattern we are reaching the end of a 22 month period where price is typically up to 30% lower from current level.
- A bearish engulfing monthly candle appears to be forming here. If we close this month with a bearish engulfing candle, history would suggest significant down side will follow.
- We have not lost the 10 month moving average yet which typically offers confirmation of further decline.

Past patterns are no guarantee of a continuation of future patterns however we can watch out for the continuation.

Confirmation signals of significant downside which would be;

- Bearish Engulfing Monthly Candle (end of Aug)
- Losing the 10 month moving average
- In the event of same decline time window once in motion would be Aug - Nov 2023 (based on pattern)

Lets see what happens.

PUKA