Trend lines drawn from the 10/13 pivot day (26d), 10/30 bottom (12d), 11/10 (5d), and today 11/16 (1d).
I am making some changes to the chart presentation and renaming the series to reflect the other data points I'm including. Still based out of the Nasdaq composite.
I do occasionally have some errors or typos and will correct them in my blog or in the comments on TradingView. I do not have an editor and do this in my free time.
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Monday, November 16, 2020
Take my hand
We're off to never never-land
Facts: +0.80% higher, Volume higher, Closing range: 89%, Body: 63%
Good: Recovered from mid-day dip to finish near highs
Bad: Not much, solid day
Highs/Lows: Higher high, higher low
Candle: Thick green body, tiny upper wick.
Advance/Decline: 2.39, almost 5 advancing stocks for every 2 declining stocks
Sectors: Energy (XLE +6.58%) and Energy (XLE +6.58%) at the top (yes, I counted it twice). Health (XLV -0.19) is the only sector with a loss.
Expectation: Higher
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Market Overview
The Nasdaq started the week off with a decent gain that showed a positive reaction to comments from the November FOMC meeting. FOMC committee members Daly and Clarida made public comments around 14:00pm that monetary policy, including quantitative easing and interest rates, would remain the same while watching the economy closely. Investors responded positively to the remarks as the indexes pivoted back toward highs of the day. The Nasdaq ended up +0.80% for the day with a 63% green body and an 89% closing range. Volume was higher than the previous day. The candle is mostly body with a lower wick formed from open prices and a short upper wick from the close near the daily highs. The index closed just under the 10/12 pivot high, a key line to watch for resistance later this week on the way to a new all-time high.
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Indexes and Sectors
The other major indexes made new all-time highs, adding to last week’s performance. The Russell 2000 (+2.37%) finished up the highest among the indexes and showing the continued interest in small-cap stocks in the market. The S&P 500 (SPX +1.16%) and Dow Jones Industrial average (DJI +1.60%) also finished in the positive, outperforming the Nasdaq composite.
Energy (XLE +6.58%) continued to build on the amazing performance last week, building off hopes of economic recovery in sectors that depend on energy such as transportation, travel and leisure industries. Industrials (XLI +2.44%) and Financials (XLF +2.22%) came in as a distance second and third. The only sector that closed with a loss on the day was Health (XLV -0.17%)
The VIX volatility index decreased -2.81%, getting close to the lows of August.
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Bonds, Greenback and Commodities
Treasury Bond yields increased just slightly for the day. The 10Y-2Y spread also increased while the 30Y-10Y remained about the same. Corporate Bonds continue to see an influx of investment, widening the spread between these bonds and treasury bonds.
The US dollar (DXY -0.17%) weakened further.
Silver (SILVER +0.47%) increased slightly while Gold (GOLD +0.03%) remained flat. Timber (WOOD +2.19%) continued to climb on strong demand for building materials. Aluminum Futures (ALI1! +1.21%) also climbed on high demand, likely from an increase in manufacturing and packaging needs (think especially automotive and beverages).
Crude Oil futures (CRUDEOIL +2.23%) dropped but is still up over 18% since the end of October.
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Market Leaders
The four big mega-caps turned in positive results for the day but mostly underperformed the index. Apple (AAPL +0.87%) is the exception, performing just slightly better than the index after opening behind the index. Microsoft (MSFT +0.33%) and Google (GOOG +0.25%) are trading above their 21d EMA and 50d MA lines. Amazon (AMZN +0.07%) has yet to close above these key indicators after dropping below last week. Other notable performances from mega-caps include Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM +6.49%) and Walt Disney Company (DIS +4.56%). Pfizer (PFE -3.34%) continues to slide back after the big gains after their vaccine announcement last week.
Some growth stocks are recovering from last weeks rotation, while others are continuing to sell. Fiverr sold off heavily on Mon and Tues of last week but is gaining ground and could see new all-time highs soon with the current trajectory. Organic Gardening stock GrowGeneration (GRWG +4.11%) continues to climb after a boost from the election results legalizing marijuana in several states. COVID pandemic favorite Zoom Video (ZM -1.10%) maybe finding a support area but still needs to prove itself in the current price range. JD.com (JD -7.41%) sold off after releasing earnings that disappointed on revenue.
Transportation, Travel, and Leisure stocks got another boost from an additional vaccine announcement from Moderna (MRNA +9.58%). American Airlines (AAL +4.49%) and Delta (DAL +4.22%), Hilton (HLT +4.55%) and Marriott (MAR +3.13%), Carnival Corp (CCL +9.74%) and Royal Caribbean (RCL +6.93%) represented big names in industries that got the boost.
Tyson Foods (TSN +3.83%) reporting earnings after the close and beat expectations on earnings and revenue. The stock is up 4.17% in after-hours trading and is a good start to a week of earnings from consumer and retail stocks.
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Looking ahead
It is the week of retail. On top of many earnings releases, economic data tomorrow will include Core Retail Sales monthly data.
Walmart (WMT +1.26%), Home Depot (HD +0.87%), Kohls (KSS +7.79%) will release earnings tomorrow, providing more detail on the health of the Retail industry.
Import/Export Price indexes will be released. Additional statements will be made from the Federal Open Market Committee.
Technology Services company Sea Limited (SE -1.77%) will release earnings tomorrow. The stock is up 350% for the year.
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Trends, Support and Resistance
The trend line from the 10/30 bottom is still pointing to a new all-time high, even though the index is taking its time to get there. That would be a +1.71% gain from today’s close. The five-day trend is pointing to a +0.46% gain, just above the 10/12 pivot high.
The one-day trend line is showing mostly a sideways move for tomorrow with a small lost of -0.40%. The trend line from the 10/12 pivot day is pointing to a -2.90% loss which would be just above the 21d EMA.
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Wrap-up
It is retail week for the market. All eyes are on earnings from the companies along the supply change from producers to sellers. Added to that will be MoM retail data. Taken all together, it could be a hint of what’s to come for Black Friday and beyond.
Take care!
I am making some changes to the chart presentation and renaming the series to reflect the other data points I'm including. Still based out of the Nasdaq composite.
I do occasionally have some errors or typos and will correct them in my blog or in the comments on TradingView. I do not have an editor and do this in my free time.
-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-
Monday, November 16, 2020
Take my hand
We're off to never never-land
Facts: +0.80% higher, Volume higher, Closing range: 89%, Body: 63%
Good: Recovered from mid-day dip to finish near highs
Bad: Not much, solid day
Highs/Lows: Higher high, higher low
Candle: Thick green body, tiny upper wick.
Advance/Decline: 2.39, almost 5 advancing stocks for every 2 declining stocks
Sectors: Energy (XLE +6.58%) and Energy (XLE +6.58%) at the top (yes, I counted it twice). Health (XLV -0.19) is the only sector with a loss.
Expectation: Higher
-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-
Market Overview
The Nasdaq started the week off with a decent gain that showed a positive reaction to comments from the November FOMC meeting. FOMC committee members Daly and Clarida made public comments around 14:00pm that monetary policy, including quantitative easing and interest rates, would remain the same while watching the economy closely. Investors responded positively to the remarks as the indexes pivoted back toward highs of the day. The Nasdaq ended up +0.80% for the day with a 63% green body and an 89% closing range. Volume was higher than the previous day. The candle is mostly body with a lower wick formed from open prices and a short upper wick from the close near the daily highs. The index closed just under the 10/12 pivot high, a key line to watch for resistance later this week on the way to a new all-time high.
-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-
Indexes and Sectors
The other major indexes made new all-time highs, adding to last week’s performance. The Russell 2000 (+2.37%) finished up the highest among the indexes and showing the continued interest in small-cap stocks in the market. The S&P 500 (SPX +1.16%) and Dow Jones Industrial average (DJI +1.60%) also finished in the positive, outperforming the Nasdaq composite.
Energy (XLE +6.58%) continued to build on the amazing performance last week, building off hopes of economic recovery in sectors that depend on energy such as transportation, travel and leisure industries. Industrials (XLI +2.44%) and Financials (XLF +2.22%) came in as a distance second and third. The only sector that closed with a loss on the day was Health (XLV -0.17%)
The VIX volatility index decreased -2.81%, getting close to the lows of August.
-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-
Bonds, Greenback and Commodities
Treasury Bond yields increased just slightly for the day. The 10Y-2Y spread also increased while the 30Y-10Y remained about the same. Corporate Bonds continue to see an influx of investment, widening the spread between these bonds and treasury bonds.
The US dollar (DXY -0.17%) weakened further.
Silver (SILVER +0.47%) increased slightly while Gold (GOLD +0.03%) remained flat. Timber (WOOD +2.19%) continued to climb on strong demand for building materials. Aluminum Futures (ALI1! +1.21%) also climbed on high demand, likely from an increase in manufacturing and packaging needs (think especially automotive and beverages).
Crude Oil futures (CRUDEOIL +2.23%) dropped but is still up over 18% since the end of October.
-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-
Market Leaders
The four big mega-caps turned in positive results for the day but mostly underperformed the index. Apple (AAPL +0.87%) is the exception, performing just slightly better than the index after opening behind the index. Microsoft (MSFT +0.33%) and Google (GOOG +0.25%) are trading above their 21d EMA and 50d MA lines. Amazon (AMZN +0.07%) has yet to close above these key indicators after dropping below last week. Other notable performances from mega-caps include Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM +6.49%) and Walt Disney Company (DIS +4.56%). Pfizer (PFE -3.34%) continues to slide back after the big gains after their vaccine announcement last week.
Some growth stocks are recovering from last weeks rotation, while others are continuing to sell. Fiverr sold off heavily on Mon and Tues of last week but is gaining ground and could see new all-time highs soon with the current trajectory. Organic Gardening stock GrowGeneration (GRWG +4.11%) continues to climb after a boost from the election results legalizing marijuana in several states. COVID pandemic favorite Zoom Video (ZM -1.10%) maybe finding a support area but still needs to prove itself in the current price range. JD.com (JD -7.41%) sold off after releasing earnings that disappointed on revenue.
Transportation, Travel, and Leisure stocks got another boost from an additional vaccine announcement from Moderna (MRNA +9.58%). American Airlines (AAL +4.49%) and Delta (DAL +4.22%), Hilton (HLT +4.55%) and Marriott (MAR +3.13%), Carnival Corp (CCL +9.74%) and Royal Caribbean (RCL +6.93%) represented big names in industries that got the boost.
Tyson Foods (TSN +3.83%) reporting earnings after the close and beat expectations on earnings and revenue. The stock is up 4.17% in after-hours trading and is a good start to a week of earnings from consumer and retail stocks.
-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-
Looking ahead
It is the week of retail. On top of many earnings releases, economic data tomorrow will include Core Retail Sales monthly data.
Walmart (WMT +1.26%), Home Depot (HD +0.87%), Kohls (KSS +7.79%) will release earnings tomorrow, providing more detail on the health of the Retail industry.
Import/Export Price indexes will be released. Additional statements will be made from the Federal Open Market Committee.
Technology Services company Sea Limited (SE -1.77%) will release earnings tomorrow. The stock is up 350% for the year.
-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-
Trends, Support and Resistance
The trend line from the 10/30 bottom is still pointing to a new all-time high, even though the index is taking its time to get there. That would be a +1.71% gain from today’s close. The five-day trend is pointing to a +0.46% gain, just above the 10/12 pivot high.
The one-day trend line is showing mostly a sideways move for tomorrow with a small lost of -0.40%. The trend line from the 10/12 pivot day is pointing to a -2.90% loss which would be just above the 21d EMA.
-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-
Wrap-up
It is retail week for the market. All eyes are on earnings from the companies along the supply change from producers to sellers. Added to that will be MoM retail data. Taken all together, it could be a hint of what’s to come for Black Friday and beyond.
Take care!
