US stock market crash. The coca cola example.
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I was thinking of investing in a farm (purely theorical), and farms are probably undervalued since:
- They are not shiny new high tech stuff, they are muddy and have this "poor" feeling surrounding them (XD)
- You have bad years and good years (and people are too dumb to hedge)
This would probably be the second best investment, second only to stocks of ACTUALLY VALUABLE AND PROFITABLE companies that got massively panic sold, way below their "real value".
If 40$ shares of Coca-Cola give you 0.15$ divendends quarterly, so 0.6$ yearly, that is a ROI of 1.5%, pretty crap. Bonds will pay more and 100% safe (student loans are actually as safe and pay even more I think lol, poor little US students, you fell for it, enjoy debt for life).
Now, since the investment is really bad, people get rid of it, people that bought low also sell, which is normal, and it corrects.
But it overcorrects, dumb money that want to get rich quick sells. The stock is down to 20$ a piece. Dividends are 22 cents that year.
Your ROI will be at 0.22*4 : 20 = 4.4%. It's quite decent. And a good value investor knows it would go up.
But when it gets really crazy is in 2009. Dividends were 38 cents the past year, ok so at the start of the years earnings were not that good,
which might have meants lower dividends. Us charyters knew better as the chart in the weekly showed bullish divergence.
Dividends are displayed when the stock is at 21$. Still even less than past year would be good.
You buy at 20$ based on charting as well as common sense. It is a big company worldwide it won't disappear overnight.
Guess what your ROI is that year? 1.64/20 = 8.2%
This is better than the S&P or pretty much anything. And it was so easy to buy it there.
Of course what happened next?
And now, the dividends are at 39 cents... Yearly 1.52/46.6$ share = 3.34% ROI...
I think us bonds are at 2.5% now? Coca cola break even with bonds if shares get priced 60$. If bonds don't go higher.
Not very interesting on an investment perspective.
It seems logical to think buying pressure will go down and the bull market will tip over, but the charts will probably let us know that in advance.
Probably it will go up with divergence on the monthly chart or something, and crash in 2019. There always are very clear warnings, impossible to miss.
If you look at the 80's, 10 year treasury rates were crazy high, above 10%, BUT dividends were insane...
HHHHHEYY coca cola paying 10% every 3 months!!!! And people panicked in 1987 when the price goes down are you kidding me? Literally 0.28 cent dividend on shares priced 2.80 dollars.
Hey I don't mind buying at the top here...
THIS IS UNBELIEVABLE. THE ROI IN 1988 WAS 40%. AND DHJSDHJSDHJSDHJSDSD IT STAYED IN ACCUMULATION FOR 10 MONTHS.CSXKSD?CSD?CSDCKSDLJCKSDLJCSDLJCSDLJ
HAHA WARREN BUFFET IS GOOD YOU SAY? HE SUCKS ASS, PEOPLE ARE JUST UTTERLY RETARDED. HE GOT LUCKY.
40% YEARLY ROI ARE YOU SERIOUS?
And people still FOMO... Even a disabled cockroach, the low of the low, the filth, had TEN MONTHS to figure out he had free money there.
It is like god is giving every one little wheels on their wheelchairs, and they still struggle.
Hey now people probably learned. Do not expect to get so easy opportunities. If they present themselves thought...
Oh wait it was 30 cents every 3 months and share cost 2.20$ that is 55% yearly ROI.
No wonder Warren is always laughing when strugglers ask him how he got rich and think it is so hard.
A fking monkey can become a billionaire...
- They are not shiny new high tech stuff, they are muddy and have this "poor" feeling surrounding them (XD)
- You have bad years and good years (and people are too dumb to hedge)
This would probably be the second best investment, second only to stocks of ACTUALLY VALUABLE AND PROFITABLE companies that got massively panic sold, way below their "real value".
If 40$ shares of Coca-Cola give you 0.15$ divendends quarterly, so 0.6$ yearly, that is a ROI of 1.5%, pretty crap. Bonds will pay more and 100% safe (student loans are actually as safe and pay even more I think lol, poor little US students, you fell for it, enjoy debt for life).
Now, since the investment is really bad, people get rid of it, people that bought low also sell, which is normal, and it corrects.
But it overcorrects, dumb money that want to get rich quick sells. The stock is down to 20$ a piece. Dividends are 22 cents that year.
Your ROI will be at 0.22*4 : 20 = 4.4%. It's quite decent. And a good value investor knows it would go up.
But when it gets really crazy is in 2009. Dividends were 38 cents the past year, ok so at the start of the years earnings were not that good,
which might have meants lower dividends. Us charyters knew better as the chart in the weekly showed bullish divergence.
Dividends are displayed when the stock is at 21$. Still even less than past year would be good.
You buy at 20$ based on charting as well as common sense. It is a big company worldwide it won't disappear overnight.
Guess what your ROI is that year? 1.64/20 = 8.2%
This is better than the S&P or pretty much anything. And it was so easy to buy it there.
Of course what happened next?
And now, the dividends are at 39 cents... Yearly 1.52/46.6$ share = 3.34% ROI...
I think us bonds are at 2.5% now? Coca cola break even with bonds if shares get priced 60$. If bonds don't go higher.
Not very interesting on an investment perspective.
It seems logical to think buying pressure will go down and the bull market will tip over, but the charts will probably let us know that in advance.
Probably it will go up with divergence on the monthly chart or something, and crash in 2019. There always are very clear warnings, impossible to miss.
If you look at the 80's, 10 year treasury rates were crazy high, above 10%, BUT dividends were insane...
HHHHHEYY coca cola paying 10% every 3 months!!!! And people panicked in 1987 when the price goes down are you kidding me? Literally 0.28 cent dividend on shares priced 2.80 dollars.
Hey I don't mind buying at the top here...
THIS IS UNBELIEVABLE. THE ROI IN 1988 WAS 40%. AND DHJSDHJSDHJSDHJSDSD IT STAYED IN ACCUMULATION FOR 10 MONTHS.CSXKSD?CSD?CSDCKSDLJCKSDLJCSDLJCSDLJ
HAHA WARREN BUFFET IS GOOD YOU SAY? HE SUCKS ASS, PEOPLE ARE JUST UTTERLY RETARDED. HE GOT LUCKY.
40% YEARLY ROI ARE YOU SERIOUS?
And people still FOMO... Even a disabled cockroach, the low of the low, the filth, had TEN MONTHS to figure out he had free money there.
It is like god is giving every one little wheels on their wheelchairs, and they still struggle.
Hey now people probably learned. Do not expect to get so easy opportunities. If they present themselves thought...
Oh wait it was 30 cents every 3 months and share cost 2.20$ that is 55% yearly ROI.
No wonder Warren is always laughing when strugglers ask him how he got rich and think it is so hard.
A fking monkey can become a billionaire...
註釋
Jamie Dimon says he thinks the bull market can last another 2-3 years.He used the word "can".
That greedy bastard wants to short it before anyone else :D
2019 is the year it goes down, 2020 MAX.
bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-08-06/dimon-doubles-down-on-higher-u-s-yields-call-with-5-warning
Think the bonds % will go up (5% will be higher than most stocks unless they go down, you would have to be a complete moron to INVEST in stocks that will yield you 2% while safe bonds grant you 5...)
Ah, he also bashes on crypto ponzi's. Funny, I clearly remember delusional crypto bulls celebration at JPMorgan Chase & Co. being interested in crypto and their CEO changing his mind...
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