#202451 - priceactiontds - year end special - gold futures

3 天前

Good Evening and I hope you are well.


comment: I know it’s an ugly chart, bear with me.
Gold spent 2020 - 2024 inside a 570 point range and started the recent bull trend with the breakout in 2024-03. Since then Gold has made 30%, which is more than unusual to say the least. From 2018 to 2020 it made 50% but only because it lost 36% from 2011 to 2018.

Market is much less obvious on higher time frames than I’d like. Both sides have reasonable arguments going for them. For bulls it’s that the bull trend is ongoing while bears could see the leg down from 2826 down to 2566 as the first in the new bear trend. Bulls would like a third leg up which could lead to 3000. Both are valid and that is why it’s most likely that the market will move sideways rather than trend big time to either direction. My favorite path forward would be a trend down to 2300 and then sideways inside a big range 2300 - 2600.

current market cycle: Bull trend is ongoing until bears can close consecutive weekly bars below the 20ema, which is at 2640 right now. Could the new bear trend have started with W1 from 2826 down to 2566? Yes. Both can be valid at the same time.

key levels for 2025: 2500 - 3000 (if 2500 breaks, 2300 would be the next big target below)

bull case: Bulls want a W5 up to 3000. Easy as pie is that read and seeing it on the chart. Hard part, as always, is giving probabilities to it and as of now, I won’t make any. The market is in balance around 2650 and I would need prices above 2760 or below 2560 to have a stronger opinion about it. That’s short but all I have to write about it for now. Can’t make stuff up where there is none.
Invalidation is below 2500.

bear case: Bears see the move down from the ath as a W1 of the new bear trend which could lead down to my biggest bear goal for 2025 at 2200ish. Here are the big bear targets in order. First is the 50% retracement of the recent bull trend at 2500. It’s also the breakout price from the W1 high and the old ath from 2011-08. Second bigger target would be 2300 which is a measured move down from the bearish W1 from the ath, the 2023-05 high (breakout-retest) and it would close the big bull gap the market left behind. Third and final target, which is the most unreasonable one for now, is 2200 which is the 50% retracement from the whole bull trend since 2018.
Invalidation is above 3050.

short term: Neutral. Lower highs and higher lows. Market is in a triangle again and in balance around 2650.

medium-long term: Will only give one above 2760 or below 2560.

current swing trade: None